China Economics Update What would make policymakers change course? The weak activity and spending data published yesterday add to evidence that growth in China is starting to slow. We think the deceleration in the economy will be gradual and expect official efforts... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Apr.) The activity and spending data for April all came in below consensus, continuing the recent trend of disappointing Chinese data. Softer foreign demand and domestic consumption were the immediate... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Paltry trade benefits from US-China deal The trade deal announced between the US and China today won’t make any meaningful difference to the bilateral trade imbalance, which could still trigger a flare-up of tensions between the two sides in... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) The headline credit data for April were stronger than anticipated, with lending holding up relatively well in response to policy tightening. That said, our adjusted measure of broad credit still... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1) Hong Kong’s economy expanded in Q1 at the fastest pace in five years in y/y terms, boosted by strong growth in exports and investment. But this is likely to be as good as it will get. While external... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Consumer price inflation edged up last month but broad price pressures still appear fairly subdued. Meanwhile, the rapid rise in producer price inflation since late last year is now reversing, thanks... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy can cope with slowdown in China The slowdown in China which now appears to be underway may prompt periodic bouts of nerves in financial and commodity markets. But we expect China’s growth rate to slow only gradually, rather than to... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s import demand comes off the boil China’s commodity import volumes dropped back in April, with a notable downturn in the more industrial commodities. Volumes are likely to remain volatile in the coming months, but the prospect of... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation set to rise, but outlook benign We think headline inflation will have risen in April and expect a further pick-up over the next few months. But price pressures should remain contained over the course of this year. Meanwhile, the... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade & FX Reserves (Apr.) Chinese trade is still growing rapidly but shipments are beginning to slow, with cooling domestic demand weighing on imports. Meanwhile, capital outflows are edging up again despite the recent rise in... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should global investors be worrying more about China? Growing evidence that China’s economy is slowing has triggered falls in domestic equity and global commodity markets this week but there has been no repeat of the broad global sell-off that... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s activity slowed in April Both the official and unofficial April manufacturing PMIs for China surprised on the downside. There are now clear signs of cooling domestic demand, which will weigh on commodity demand. That said... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Apr.) The latest PMI readings support our view that growth in China peaked at the turn of the year and is now decelerating. 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Concerns over regulatory tightening spook investors China’s equity markets saw the biggest fall since 2016 in April after policymakers ramped up their rhetoric on limiting financial risks. Meanwhile, the renminbi has remained stable against the US... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean equities reach a six-year high Chinese trade restrictions and mounting tensions with North Korea have failed to dent the rally in South Korea’s equity market, which is nearing a record high. 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Construction likely to slow again as property sales cool After falling for years, construction growth in China has stabilised since the start of 2016, supported by a rise in home sales. Dire warnings of developers collapsing have not materialised. But it is... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
