Emerging Markets Economics Update More to structural EM weakness than investment behaviour Our view that EMs have entered a period of structurally weaker growth has started to become the mainstream, but there is a tendency to misdiagnose this as solely a problem of deficient investment... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Problems continue to brew at Chinese banks The outlook for China’s banks is going from bad to worse. Pressure on the banking system has increased during the past year even though economic activity has recovered. And with a renewed slowdown now... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Mixed messages from China’s PMIs The official and unofficial May manufacturing PMIs for China told somewhat different stories. However, we are inclined to put more weight on the unofficial PMI, which fell for the third successive... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May) Yesterday’s official PMI reading had hinted at growth having remained broadly stable last month. But today’s downbeat unofficial PMI suggests conditions may not have held up as well as previously... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi jumps as fixing mechanism changes China’s markets were left unfazed by the ratings downgrade last week. But there have been some sizeable gains since then in the renminbi as policymakers have signalled their determination to prevent... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (May) The latest official PMI readings add to broader evidence that downward pressure on growth has eased lately. We expect this stability to prove short-lived. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Watch As good as it gets for Chinese steel Chinese steel prices have been on a roller-coaster since the start of this year, as investor sentiment on the outlook for demand waxed and waned. In this Metals Watch, we take an in-depth look at the... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Low food inflation keeps EM inflation near eight-year low Aggregate EM inflation remained close to an eight-year low in April, largely reflecting a slump in food inflation in major economies such as China and Brazil. While this weakness will soon reverse in... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC tightens the renminbi’s leash The change in the renminbi fixing mechanism announced today shouldn’t rattle markets, not least because it appears to be an attempt to strengthen rather than weaken the currency. It suggests though... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Regulatory crackdown poses risks to growth, financial stability The ongoing regulatory crackdown on banks’ off-balance-sheet activities has contributed to the mild slowdown in growth we’ve seen recently. But it is also bringing into focus the challenges that China... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Downgrade underlines fiscal risks in debt build-up Today’s ratings downgrade reveals little that investors didn’t already know about credit growth in China and the risk that it requires the government to accept a big increase in its debt load in... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth remains at six-month low Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows growth stayed in April at the slowest pace in half a year. Looking ahead, as officials continue their efforts to rein in credit risks, we think activity will slow... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How big a risk does a China slowdown pose to the US? The economic slowdown underway in China is perhaps the biggest external risk facing the US economy. However, growth would need to slow far more than we think is likely to knock the US recovery off... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does China’s slowdown mean for commodities? Growing evidence that China’s economy is decelerating has raised concerns about the impact of softer demand on global commodity markets. While we acknowledge that China’s slowdown will be a powerful... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Apr.) China’s activity and investment data for April showed clear signs of a slowdown. Given steadily tightening monetary conditions and less fiscal stimulus, we expect activity to slow further which will... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Impact of mainland-HK bond connect likely to be small Regulators this week approved a scheme that will allow investors with brokerage accounts in Hong Kong to invest directly in mainland bond markets, set to be launched before the end of this year. But... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
