Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting EM links with China The EMs with the deepest trade ties to China have, unsurprisingly, benefitted most from the economy’s rebound since the start of 2016. These countries lie mostly in Asia. It follows that these are the... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the inclusion of Chinese A-shares in the MSCI a big deal? We are not surprised that stock markets in China have barely risen in response to MSCI’s decision to include the country’s A-shares in its Emerging Markets (EM) Index. Admittedly, the initial... 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (May) Capital outflows from China were broadly unchanged last month and are likely to persist at this relatively low level for the foreseeable future as households and firms increase their exposure to... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (May) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium output rose by 4.8% y/y last month, down from 6.4% y/y a month earlier. However, unlike in April when the growth was all in... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China awaits damp squib of MSCI inclusion MSCI will announce on Tuesday whether it will include China’s domestically-listed A-shares in its benchmark indices. It has chosen not to in the past on concerns over market access and official... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (May) China’s activity data were broadly stable in May, but a slowdown in construction starts and growth in investment do not bode well for future metals demand. 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) The squeeze in bond markets explains a pick-up in corporate loan growth last month as firms sought cheaper forms of credit. But on broader measures, the recent slowdown in credit growth has been... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (May) Headline industrial production growth was stable last month but the output volumes of individual products hint at a continued deceleration in activity. Meanwhile, weaker inflation in capital goods... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC to keep rates stable post-Fed and beyond The US Fed is poised to raise rates on Wednesday. When it last hiked back in March, the People’s Bank quickly followed suit. This time, however, we expect the PBOC to stay on hold and, indeed, to keep... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly China credit bubble is biggest risk facing Emerging Asia Many of the risks facing Emerging Asia’s economies have receded in recent months. The key exception is the continued rapid build-up of debt in China. A bursting of China’s credit bubble would have... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Consumer price inflation edged up last month on the back of a less rapid drop in food prices. But declines in non-food inflation and producer price inflation still point to an easing of broader price... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Recovery in China’s commodity imports likely to be short-lived China’s commodity import volumes bounced back in May, after a weak April. However, we doubt that this marks the beginning of a sustained recovery. Slower credit growth is expected to lead to weaker... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (May) The latest Chinese trade data beat expectations. Imports, in particular, held up surprisingly well. But given the approaching headwinds to the economy from policy tightening, we doubt this strength... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update China’s demand for Treasuries unlikely to anchor yields China has started to accumulated foreign exchange reserves again in recent months, having reduced them over the past few years. We expect reserves to continue rising, but doubt that this will weigh on... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (May) The latest rise in China’s foreign exchange reserves suggests that the People’s Bank (PBOC) became net buyer of FX for the first time in well over a year last month. This reflects an easing of capital... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Non-food inflation close to a peak We think headline inflation will have risen in May to a four-month high, driven by a further recovery in food price inflation. But looking ahead, CPI inflation is unlikely to rise much further this... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
