China Data Response FX Reserves (Jun.) China’s foreign exchange reserve figures for June suggest that, having eased markedly since the start of the year, capital outflow pressures remained muted last month. We think this shift could prove... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Asset management crackdown risks sparking volatility Earlier this week, the People’s Bank vowed to do more to regulate asset management products. While it is wise to seek to defuse the risks from these products sooner rather than later, doing so without... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Floods add upside risks to inflation outlook We think headline inflation will have risen in June to a five-month high on the back of a further rebound in food price inflation. Looking ahead, while we don’t expect consumer price inflation to rise... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Cycles start to turn in the BRICs The growth outlook for major EMs is starting to diverge. While there are signs that a slowdown is now underway in China, cyclical rebounds lie ahead in India, Brazil and Russia. 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is China’s recovery faltering? China’s stimulus-driven recovery is over. Key risks, in particular around the currency, have dissipated, so the coming slowdown should be mild. But the economy’s structural problems are not being... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Bond link will struggle to attract foreign investors The Bond Connect scheme launched today creates a new channel for foreigners to invest in China’s onshore bond market. If previous steps to expand market access are any guide, however, the move will do... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Some strength at end-Q2 After diverging in May, the official and unofficial June manufacturing PMIs for China told a similar story of somewhat stronger activity in the final month of the quarter. However, the bigger picture... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) Today’s PMI reading suggests that growth in China may have edged up at the end of Q2. Nonetheless, it is still consistent with more subdued economic activity than during much of the past few quarters... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equities, renminbi rise on state intervention Chinese equities ended June at a two-month high, likely supported by state buying. Increased intervention by officials also appears to have been responsible for the renminbi’s recent appreciation... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Public debt set to rebound Efforts to curtail off-budget borrowing by local governments have recently helped slow the rise of China’s public debt ratio. But a further rise in government debt is almost certain in future as it... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Jun.) The official manufacturing PMI continues to point to robust economic growth. But the data should be taken with a large pinch of salt given that the index has recently diverged with more reliable... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth edges up in May Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) for May shows that growth edged up for the first time this year. This was due to a seasonal jump in passenger traffic around a national holiday. As officials continue... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth slows at start of Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth softened a little in April, but in several countries this was driven by calendar effects that should reverse in May. 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Output Monitor (May) After a strong start to 2017, growth in China’s refinery output appears to be slowing. This corroborates broader activity and investment data, which have lost some momentum going into the second... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus 20 years on: assessing the past and future of Hong Kong 1st July marks the 20th anniversary of Hong Kong’s return to China. The city’s economy has continued to prosper over the last two decades, defying gloomy predictions made by some before the handover... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Winners and losers from the latest drop in oil Within the EM world, the main beneficiaries of the recent drop in oil prices are Korea, India, Turkey, and South Africa, while the biggest losers are the Gulf States, Russia and Nigeria. That being... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
