China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Jun.) Net capital outflows from China were broadly unchanged in June as greater inflows from foreign investors helped to offset increased outflows due to Chinese investment overseas, including in Belt &... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jun.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.5% y/y rise in global steel production in the first half of 2017, which compares favourably with the 0.8% rise in 2016. 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jun.) According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 7.1% y/y last month, up from 4.8% y/y a month earlier. 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Policy controls drive property demand to small cities The resilience of home sales in China (up 18% y/y in June) has raised questions about the effectiveness of government efforts to cool the sector, which have been stepped up in recent months. In fact... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Government intervention in the coal market could backfire Coal prices have been boosted recently by a series of temporary factors. However, supply is growing quickly, which is raising the risk of a sharp drop in prices once demand drops back. 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Jun.) There was across-the-board strength in China’s June activity and investment data, which helps to explain the recent resilience of industrial metals prices. However, we still expect ongoing policy... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Regulatory campaign weighing on service sector growth The detailed breakdown of China’s Q2 GDP data that has just been released suggests that a tougher regulatory environment is weighing on service sector growth. So far the drag has been mild but it may... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Leadership signals sustained focus on financial risks Relatively few substantive decisions appear to have been made at the National Financial Work Conference but statements about the need to limit financial risks are significant. They suggest that the... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q2) & Activity & Spending (Jun.) Both the official GDP figures and our own measure of economic activity suggest growth held up well last quarter, with more timely data showing few signs of a slowdown heading into Q3. That said, we... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth to slow, but not collapse EM export growth ticked up in May, but the big picture is that the sharp acceleration caused by the rebound in global commodity prices over the past year or so is now behind us. We don’t expect EM... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Any changes to exchange rate regime likely to be cosmetic Another widening of the renminbi’s trading band is now a distinct possibility, following hints in a PBOC-run newspaper earlier this week. But such a move would make no difference to the trajectory of... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Persistent strength in China’s commodity imports China’s commodity import demand has generally been strong so far in 2017. However, stocks of many industrial commodities are high suggesting that underlying demand may be somewhat weaker. Indeed, we... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jun.) Chinese trade ended Q2 on a positive note but headwinds remain. In particular, while the slowdown in import growth appears to have eased recently, policy tightening means that the current resilience... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) New lending rose by more than anticipated in June. But this masks a continued slowdown in underlying credit growth which will start to weigh on economic activity before long. 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM credit bubble is now (mostly) a China story The past couple of weeks have seen renewed concerns about credit risks in emerging economies. The key point that has been missed in much of the analysis, however, is that credit bubbles have begun to... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) In June, core consumer price inflation hit its highest level, Chinese New Year aside, since 2011. And after falling since February, producer price inflation stabilised. But with economic activity set... 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
