China Economics Update Broad price pressures set to ease further Consumer prices appear to have risen at their fastest pace last month since February, driven by a rebound in food inflation. Even so, consumer price inflation remains muted and is unlikely to pick-up... 7th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Jul.) China’s foreign exchange reserves suggest that outflow pressures eased further last month, which seems to have encouraged the People’s Bank to halt its FX sales entirely. This shift is helping to... 7th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The latest PMIs, published today, suggest that global manufacturing growth continues to be quite rapid and add to evidence that the world economy has plenty of momentum. 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery soft at the start of Q3 July’s PMI data remain consistent with a continued expansion in EM manufacturing, albeit at a pace that is down slightly from the highs seen at the start of the year. 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack A weaker US dollar boosts commodities The prices of most commodities rose last month. In part, this was due to a weaker dollar. But stronger economic activity data for China also played a role. We think that growth in China is likely to... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs paint a mixed picture While the unofficial PMI data point to an acceleration in economic growth in July, we don’t think that the upturn will be sustained, given the increasing headwinds from policy tightening. This view... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) Yesterday’s official PMI reading had hinted at a softer start to Q3. But today’s unofficial PMI suggests that manufacturing activity has held up better than previously thought and points to a pick-up... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update State sector reform continues to underwhelm There has been a fresh push recently on state sector reform but no sign that policymakers are willing to tackle the underlying reasons why state firms perform poorly. 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Jul.) The latest official PMI readings suggest that China’s growth momentum may have waned at the start of Q3 as foreign demand cooled. 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth likely to have nudged down a little in Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth picked up slightly in May, but this partly reflects a bounce from a soft April. The bigger picture is that overall EM growth looks to have nudged down a bit in... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth recovered in Q2, set to hold up well Data published this week suggest that global economic growth almost certainly picked up a bit in Q2. We expect it to remain fairly rapid for the next year or two, even as China’s economy loses steam. 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi strengthens further against US dollar The Hong Kong dollar has continued to slide against the US dollar in recent weeks and may soon run into the buffers of the HKMA’s exchange rate band. The renminbi, by contrast, has been appreciating... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks of most metals edge lower Exchange stocks of most metals fell over the last month. With the exception of copper and tin, inventories are now substantially lower than at the start of the year, pointing to tightening markets... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China and India’s gold imports (Jun.) The latest trade data for India and China show that gold imports rose in June. Nonetheless, we think that demand will lose momentum in the second half of the year as slower growth in China and a new... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth stable in Q2, but momentum slowing Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) shows that growth in China remained strong in Q2, although our new seasonally-adjusted data point to a marked slowdown in momentum since the start of the year. 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM consumers bouncing back EM retail sales growth picked up for a third consecutive month in May and is now running at a 12-month high. What’s more, the improvement has been widespread across different EM regions. In Russia and... 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
