China Economics Update Don’t underestimate the renminbi The renminbi’s strong gains against the dollar over recent weeks caught many by surprise, and most think they will reverse before long. By contrast, we believe there is a good chance that appreciation... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Aug.) The latest official PMI readings suggest that China’s manufacturing activity may have strengthened in August but point to weaker momentum in the rest of the economy. 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A tale of two currencies The renminbi’s continued strength against the US dollar this month has forced us to update our forecasts. The Hong Kong dollar, by contrast, has declined to record lows against the US currency and may... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equities shrug off latest Korean tensions Equity markets in Emerging Asia have continued to take the crisis in North Korea in their stride. Although most markets have fallen in response to today’s missile test, the moves are very small. It is... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth jumps in July In contrast to the weaker official activity data for July, our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth in China picked up last month to the fastest pace in nearly four years. However, as... 28th August 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India gold imports (Jul.) The latest trade data for India and China show that gold imports started Q3 on a soft note. We think that demand will continue to weaken in the remainder of the year as slower growth in China and a... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Growing supply will limit any gains in oil prices this year Crude oil prices have risen over the last month as demand has picked up and stocks have tumbled. However, supply, especially from Nigeria, Libya and the US has risen rapidly. This Energy Watch looks... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.) Net capital outflows from China edged up in July, but this was due to seasonal factors. Adjusting for these, outflows actually eased last month to a five-month low, helped by more rapid foreign... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed, not China’s demand, to remain key driver of Treasuries Although China’s holdings of US Treasuries increased by more in June than in any other month in the past six years, we doubt that renewed Chinese buying of Treasuries will keep their yields low in the... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Strong bank earnings conceal gloomy outlook Official data published on Monday show that commercial banks’ non-performing loan (NPL) ratio held steady at 1.74% in Q2 and that their net profits grew almost 12% y/y, the fastest pace since 2014... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) New lending declined in July, masking an uptick in underlying credit growth. We doubt this will translate to a sustained pick-up, however, since efforts to slow the build-up of debt mean that market... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Jul.) China’s July activity and investment data showed a marked downturn and reversed most of the gains recorded towards the end of the second quarter. We had always expected policy tightening to translate... 14th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jul.) The activity and spending data for July all came in below expectations, reversing most of improvement seen at the end of Q2. Nonetheless, industrial production still looks unsustainably strong given... 14th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) Rising steel prices aside, broader price pressures appear to have cooled last month. We expect the reflation of the past year to continue to fizzle out in coming quarters as policy tightening dampens... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Poor start to H2 2017 for China’s commodity imports China’s commodity import volumes were generally weak in July. High stocks of many commodities and growing domestic production dampened demand for imports. What’s more, the prospect of cooling domestic... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jul.) Chinese trade softened at the start of Q3, with a slowdown in commodity imports suggesting that policy tightening may be weighing on investment spending. 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
