China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) New lending rose in August, but this masks a decline in underlying credit growth, which has trended down during the past year. A further slowdown appears likely given the government’s current campaign... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Aug.) China’s August activity and spending data suggest that the slowdown that started in July continued into August. In particular, a downturn in infrastructure spending does not bode well for metals... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Aug.) The activity and spending data for August all came in below expectations. The main culprit was a slowdown in infrastructure investment, which also weighed on industrial output. We expect further... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should we expect a post-Congress shift in the policy agenda? With President Xi already firmly in charge of setting the government’s economic agenda, we don’t anticipate any major changes in policy goals after next month’s Party Congress. That said, a stronger... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three things to watch in the Standing Committee reshuffle President Xi is widely expected to consolidate his power over the Party and over policy at the Party Congress next month. Politics is extremely opaque at elite levels in China and we won’t have any... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export slowdown to be very gradual Having slowed in Q2, emerging market (EM) export growth ticked up a little at the start of Q3. However, this is likely to be temporary and EM export growth is set to soften over the remainder of the... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC hoping for exchange rate uncertainty, not weakness We don’t believe that officials at the People’s Bank are so acutely sensitive to the level of the exchange rate that they are now worried about renminbi strength – it has barely moved in trade... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s ore imports continue to rise China’s commodity import volumes picked up in August as rising metals prices encouraged refiners and steel mills to import raw materials. However, we expect import volumes to subside later in the year... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Aug.) Export growth slowed by more than anticipated last month. Unfavourable base effects appear largely to blame. Nonetheless, outbound shipments remain softer than in Q2. Inbound shipments have held up... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Aug.) A rise in China’s foreign exchange reserves suggests that the People’s Bank may have become a net buyer of FX last month for the first time since 2015. This would signal that the central bank’s... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Party Congress work report to offer early hints of Xi’s power Anticipation is building ahead of next month’s Party Congress, which is widely seen as a potential watershed in policymaking if it results in President Xi successfully consolidating his power. The... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to hit seven-month high in August Consumer price inflation probably rose last month to the highest since January, driven by a further rebound in food price inflation. But taking a step back, inflation is still fairly subdued and we... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Trade tensions rise after North Korea’s test President Trump’s suggestion that he would cut off all trade with countries that trade with North Korea is an empty threat when it comes to China. But the risk of some form of trade sanction has... 4th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still going strong in Q3 Last month’s PMIs suggest that conditions in EM manufacturing sectors improved in Q3, supported by most of the major BRIC economies. 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs point to strong industrial output in August While stronger manufacturing PMI readings imply an acceleration in industrial activity in August, we don’t think that the upturn will be sustained given the increasing headwinds from policy tightening... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) Stronger manufacturing PMI readings for August suggest that industrial output remains resilient. However, momentum elsewhere in the economy has weakened. 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
