China Economics Focus The Party Congress - a Primer The upcoming Party Congress will deliver a major reshuffle of China’s leadership and determine President Xi Jinping’s ability to implement his policy priorities over the next five years. In this... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would a stronger Xi be good for the economy? Reform implementation is likely to accelerate after the Party Congress, particularly if President Xi emerges in a stronger position. But given Xi’s reluctance to relinquish state control over key... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Sep.) The small rise in China’s foreign exchange reserves last month is consistent with muted capital outflows but hints at active intervention by the People’s Bank to inject two-way volatility into the... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Mid-Autumn Festival distortions drag down inflation We expect consumer price inflation to have fallen in September as a shift in the timing of Mid-Autumn Festival probably caused a drop in food price inflation last month. This will reverse in October... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Nearing the cyclical peak Economic growth looks set to strengthen in most EMs over the next year, but the cycle is now close to peaking in China and parts of Central and Eastern Europe. 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Monetary policy remaining tight despite RRR cut The People’s Bank gave its devotees a twinge of nostalgia on Saturday as it announced a cut to reserve requirements out of office hours and at the start of a national holiday in China. This was how... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Ample supply weighs on agriculturals There were some sharp moves in metals prices this week, as investors took positions ahead of the weeklong holiday in China. Meanwhile, oil prices edged higher on speculation that OPEC will extend its... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi gives back some of its gains Many had been expecting policymakers to focus on stability above all else in financial markets in the run-up to the October Party Congress. But they this week allowed the renminbi to weaken sharply... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Drop in CA deficits take EMs out the firing line There are several reasons why the gradual tightening of monetary policy in developed markets is unlikely to cause major problems for EMs, but one of the most important is that current account deficits... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India gold imports (Aug.) The latest trade data for India and China show that imports remained soft in August. We had always believed that demand in India would weaken in Q3 as a result of the implementation of the Goods &... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth still holding up well Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth in China remained strong last month, driven by healthy domestic demand. But as officials continue their efforts to rein in financial risks and with... 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation picks up from eight-year low Aggregate EM inflation rebounded in August, having fallen to an eight-year low in July. But while we expect fuel and food inflation to edge up over the coming months, easing core price pressures... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update S&P playing catch-up with downgrade S&P is the third of the three major ratings agencies to downgrade China and today’s decision tells us nothing we didn’t already know. There has actually been some progress recently in tackling credit... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will new Chinese crude contracts be a game-changer? A new, yuan-denominated crude futures contract should have no impact on oil prices. The development of more futures contracts makes sense given China’s high consumption of most major commodities and... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property market set to cool further Some have pointed to a rise in home sales and housing starts growth in August as evidence that China’s property sector is holding up well despite the government’s curbs. But while the property sector... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) In seasonally-adjusted terms, capital outflows fell to a three-year low last month as Chinese firms and individuals reduced their foreign currency deposits at the fastest pace in half a year. Looking... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
