China Data Response Official PMIs (Oct.) The latest official PMI readings suggest that growth momentum weakened this month. With fiscal support likely to be reduced now that the Party Congress is over and the environmental crackdown set to... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rise in government bond yields unlikely to last China’s government bond yields have risen over the past week as state funds have stopped propping up the country’s bond prices after the Party Congress. But with the PBOC likely to keep short-term... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Consumers remain upbeat The latest data on retail sales during China’s National Day “Golden Week” period suggest that consumer demand remains strong. Despite a further increase in overseas tourism during the holiday... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Xi tightens his grip, leaves succession plans unclear As expected, Xi was able to stack China’s top leadership group with close allies. Furthermore, he left the door open to staying on beyond 2022 by not anointing a successor. Unfortunately, there are... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Pockets of strength and weakness in China’s imports There was no clear trend in China’s September metals import data. Indeed, in many cases, we think incoming shipments appeared at odds with the underlying trends in domestic demand and supply. High... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Economy losing steam? Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth in China slowed last month to the weakest pace in a year. Looking ahead, with property sales cooling and officials continuing their efforts to rein... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Xi enshrined in constitution, signalling his dominance Wang Qishan was not among the members of the new central committee announced today, ending speculation that retirement norms would be broken so that he could keep his position, possibly as a precursor... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Construction slowdown points to weakness ahead The detailed breakdown of China’s Q3 GDP data released today shows a slowdown in industry and construction that was offset by stronger activity in the financial and information technology sectors... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.) Our estimates show that China saw a net inflow of capital last month, albeit a very small one, for the first time since 2014. Foreign investors acquired Chinese financial assets at the fastest pace in... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q3) & Activity (Sep.) Both the official figures and our own China Activity Proxy suggest that growth held up well last quarter, and so did the monthly activity data in September. However, a less supportive fiscal policy... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Xi is prioritising politics over market opening The Party Congress kicked off today with the Report delivered by Xi Jinping. His ability to emphasise his contributions to Communist Party doctrine over those his predecessors hints at a successful... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Inflation & Credit (Sep.) Core inflation rose to a near six-year high last month and producer price inflation continued to rebound, consistent with resilient growth ahead of the Party Congress. But the credit data suggest that... 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All eyes on China The more industrial commodities have had a good week, which was vindicated to some extent on Friday by data showing a surge in China’s commodity imports in September. Meanwhile, the minutes from the... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A bumper month for China’s commodity imports China’s commodity import volumes surged in September. However, this could reflect a final push at the local level to boost activity ahead of the Party Congress this month. As such, import volumes... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Expanding property curbs to weigh further on sales A slump in home sales in China’s major cities during the National Day holiday has grabbed many headlines this week. But this weakness isn’t a new development. Home sales in big cities have been... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Sep.) Seasonal factors helped to boost year-on-year trade growth last month. But there are also hints of a real pick-up in domestic demand, perhaps due to efforts to shore up activity ahead of the Party... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
