China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Apr. 24) China’s senior leadership has today signalled further fiscal and monetary support for the economy and renewed efforts to stabilise the housing market. That should help prolong the recent economic... 30th April 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Apr. 2024) While the Caixin services PMI edged down last month, it dropped by less than its official counterpart, and the survey data for April is still consistent with some improvement in momentum since the... 30th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What Trump’s return would mean for EMs All the signs suggest that a second Trump administration would take a more protectionist approach to trade. Export demand in Mexico, East Asia and ASEAN would be particularly hard hit by a universal... 29th April 2024 · 13 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: What Trump’s return would mean for emerging markets 1715868000 A second Trump presidency would almost certainly lead to a protectionist lurch from the US, with profound implications for the emerging world.
Commodities Weekly Metals prices: a genuine breakout or overoptimism? In a mixed week for commodity prices, copper topped $10,000 per tonne for the first time since April 2022. This is the latest in what has been a rip-roaring start to the year for non-ferrous... 26th April 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC bond trading, LGFV pullback The PBOC has clarified that its plans to start trading government bonds are aimed at managing interest rate risk, not conducting QE. This reinforces our sense that large-scale monetary easing remains... 26th April 2024 · 6 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Cyclical recovery still underway Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests the economy saw a healthy expansion in March, driven by the continued strength of industry. While we think that fiscal support will keep fuelling the economy in... 24th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will China’s trade surplus impact EMs? While EM policymakers haven’t raised concerns about Chinese overcapacity in the same way that their counterparts in the US and Europe have, they too are facing widening trade deficits with China. We... 24th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update Green tech to stay central to China overcapacity fears The rapid expansion in China’s manufacturing capacity of green technology is a symptom of the country’s investment-led growth model and so there is no reason to believe that any change in tack is... 23rd April 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China trip notes – sentiment still depressed A week spent visiting clients, contacts and friends in Beijing and Shanghai has underlined the extent of the pessimistic shift in sentiment within China. 23rd April 2024 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update China green export volumes close to a record high Despite another large y/y fall in green technology export values from China in March, falling solar panel and battery prices mean that China’s export volumes of the so-called “New Three” were close to... 22nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Service sector picking up, overcapacity worsening The GDP breakdown suggests that the acceleration in growth last quarter was driven by the service sector, although the parts most dependent on consumer spending fared less well. And despite the recent... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Oil and gas price spikes not likely to stop ECB cuts We think the risk of a large and sustained rise in energy prices is low so we remain happy with our forecast that the ECB will cut rates by 125bp this year. If energy prices were to jump very sharply... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q1) & Activity (Mar. 2024) Stronger-than-expected official GDP figures indicate that China’s economy gained momentum in Q1, thanks to policy support. But monthly activity data suggest that this policy-driven recovery is shaky... 16th April 2024 · 2 mins read
