Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Trump still focusing on bilateral deficits EM exports look to have finished Q3 on a strong note, albeit with help from seasonal effects. Otherwise, a year on from Trump’s election, protectionist rhetoric is yet to result in material changes to... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Political risks boost oil prices The price of oil jumped this week on rising tensions in the Middle East, which also lent some support to the gold price. In contrast, the prices of industrial metals fell, after strong gains a week... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China increasing foreign access but still stacking deck Today’s announcement that China is removing foreign ownership restrictions in its financial sector is encouraging but it is unclear when this will happen. It is also unlikely that foreign-owned firms... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3) We think it’s on borrowed time but the still-buoyant property market supported another quarter of strong household spending for Hong Kong in Q3 which helped offset weakness elsewhere in the economy. 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) Our tracker suggests that EM capital outflows picked up to a nine month high in October. Even so, they remained weak by the standard of recent years. 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) Higher-than-expected inflation last month means that the China reflation story remains alive for now. But with the economy set to soften in the coming quarters and current price gains partly the... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump failing to deliver on protectionist threat One year on from his election, Donald Trump is struggling to live up to the promises he made on the campaign trail to get tough with countries that run big bilateral trade surpluses with the US... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports slump China’s commodity import volumes plummeted in October. While a shift in the timing of the MidAutumn Festival explains much of the decline, we think that there are now clear signs that domestic demand... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Oct.) A shift in the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival explains much of the decline in headline trade growth in October. But even after accounting for seasonal factors, trade volumes have edged down... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Oct.) The stability of China’s foreign exchange reserves last month masks a pick-up in FX purchases by the People’s Bank (PBOC). We believe this intervention is aimed at creating uncertainty over the short... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update High core inflation unlikely to trigger tightening Core inflation rose in September to six-year high, as rapid economic growth and a tight labour market continued to drive a pick-up underlying price pressures. But with growth soon likely to slow again... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to rise further We expect CPI inflation to have rebounded in October driven by a rise in food price inflation. The core rate, which hit a six-year high in September, will likely have edged up too. Looking ahead, a... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Powell nomination won't have big impact on EMs The nomination of Jerome Powell to be the next chair of the Fed doesn’t have significant implications for EMs. We think that the economic recovery is close to peaking in several emerging economies and... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Capacity cuts starting to be felt in China’s PMIs China’s official and unofficial manufacturing PMIs diverged again in October but they both paint a subdued picture of China’s activity. Somewhat ironically, lower commodity output is a key factor... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) Today’s unofficial PMI reading suggests that the economy may have held up better in October than yesterday’s official PMI readings initially suggested. But this is unlikely to prevent year-on-year... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Pollution crackdown set to drag on growth A crackdown on polluters is already disrupting activity in parts of industry. But regulators look set to take even more aggressive action to meet air quality targets for the winter. Industrial output... 31st October 2017 · 13 mins read
