China Economics Update US tax cuts bolster calls for China to follow suit As US tax reform nears the finishing line, some in China are warning that the cut to US corporate tax rates could undermine China’s competitiveness and spur capital outflows. We think these concerns... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to expect in 2018 We’ve revised down our forecast for China’s growth next year on the back of the weakness in recent data. There will be little movement in the official GDP growth numbers but we now expect actual... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s November PMIs diverge … again China’s official and unofficial manufacturing PMIs continued to diverge in November, with the former rising and the latter falling. We tend to put more faith in the unofficial index which shows that... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) Today’s Caixin PMI reading paints a less upbeat picture than the official surveys and suggests that economic activity probably cooled slightly last month. We expect further softness ahead, which will... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Crackdown on online lending spooks markets Chinese equities have fallen back from recent highs after regulators spooked investors by tightening restrictions on online lending. But we don’t think a slump is likely. Meanwhile, corporate bond... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus China Property Handbook China’s property sector is crucial to the economy’s performance and to China’s demand for many materials. In this Focus, we discuss the drivers of the property cycle and answer the key questions on... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Nov.) The official PMIs continued to hold up well this month. But they have been a poor guide to recent trends, failing to reflect the deceleration in economic growth shown on our China Activity Proxy... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India gold imports (Oct.) The latest trade data for India and China show that gold imports remained weak in October. We had always thought that demand in India would soften in the second half of the year as a result of the new... 27th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth slows Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic growth slowed for a third month in succession in October, dropping to the weakest pace in over a year. With property curbs biting and credit... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update GDP targets here to stay Official talk about prioritising the “quality” of economic growth over speed has sparked speculation that the government may stop setting GDP targets. Unfortunately we think they are here to stay. 22nd November 2017 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation on the turn EM inflation dropped to an eight-year low in the middle of this year, but it has now started to rise. The recent increase in oil prices will have pushed it higher this month. And a combination of... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) After seeing net capital inflows in September for the first time in 2014, we think outflows will have returned last month as Chinese investors acquired foreign assets at a faster pace and inbound... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Oct.) China’s October activity and investment data underpin our view that the economy started to slow in the second half of this year and point to softer growth in metals demand. 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Turn in the cycle The October data available so far suggest that China’s economy is starting to slow after growing at a rapid pace through most of this year. Real investment and property sales were both lower last... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Oct.) While official figures show a small deceleration in industrial output growth last month, our own measure points to a much shaper decline. Meanwhile, the are signs in the rest of today’s data that the... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) Higher market rates are driving a slowdown in credit growth that is set to weigh on economic activity in coming quarters. Weaker incoming data should keep the PBOC from tightening policy any further. 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
