China Economics Focus A refresher on China’s monetary policy framework With the People’s Bank last week tweaking the interest rates on its open market operations, it seems timely to highlight some of the peculiarities of China’s monetary policy framework. One key one is... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Watch China’s slowing oil imports should weigh on prices Strong Chinese demand for oil this year has helped to rebalance the market. However, a slowing economy, an increasing focus on anti-pollution measures in major cities and a reduction in strategic... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Economy much cooler as year ends Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic conditions stabilised in November but with growth much weaker than it was in the middle of the year. We expect a further slowdown during 2018. 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack A strong 2017 – but 2018 will be more challenging Our GDP Tracker suggests that the emerging world is on course to grow by just over 4.5% in 2017 – it’s fastest pace of expansion in six years. The pick-up has been broad-based, with growth in Emerging... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Rise in HK interest rates to weigh on property prices Market interest rates in Hong Kong have jumped recently, reaching a nine-year high of 1.3% after the Fed’s rate hike this week. The unusually large spread between HK and US interbank rates that has... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Nov.) China’s latest activity and investment data point to more subdued metals demand than earlier in the year. Despite curbs on supply, we still think prices are reflecting undue optimism about demand. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Key calls for EMs in 2018 The emerging world is currently expanding at its fastest pace in four years, but we don’t think this will last in 2018. In this Focus we outline our key calls for next year. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The PBOC pretends to follow the Fed The People’s Bank has raised the rates it charges when providing funds in China’s interbank market. But unlike in the US, the move seems unlikely to result in higher short-term funding costs for most... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) Stronger exports and an uptick in investment failed to prevent a further slowdown in industrial output growth last month as disruptions to factory activity from the pollution crackdown continued to... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our tracker suggests that capital flows into and out of the EM world were essentially balanced last month. Over 2017 as a whole, outflows will be about US$55bn, just an eighth of the total recorded in... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) New lending jumped last month but this masks a further slowdown in underlying credit growth. Despite the official rhetoric on the need to deleverage, we think the drag on economic activity from this... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports jump China’s commodity import volumes rebounded strongly in November, after the October weakness. The data may have been boosted by holiday-related distortions but it also appears that policies to curtail... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Nov.) Chinese trade growth surprised to the upside in November, with strong external demand more than offsetting the drag from base effects. That said, domestic demand may not be quite as strong as the... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation to jump in early 2018 We expect a spike in food price inflation to push headline CPI inflation up sharply over the months ahead. But with core inflation unlikely to pick up much further and PPI inflation set to fall... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Nov.) China’s foreign exchange reserves suggest that capital outflows continued to be a non-issue last month. This has allowed the PBOC to step back from FX intervention which, over the medium term, should... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the weakness in the MSCI China Index spread? A couple of years ago, worries about China caused the last major correction in stock markets around the world. With the MSCI China Index plunging recently, could something similar be around the corner... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
