China Economics Update IT boom fails to avert broader slowdown The detailed breakdown of China’s Q4 GDP data released today claims that stronger services activity, particularly in IT, fully offset a slowdown in construction and industry. While we don’t doubt that... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will strong global demand support China in 2018? Continued strength in foreign demand should help cushion some of the slowdown that we expect in China’s domestic economy this year. But it won’t prevent growth from weakening. 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q4) & Activity & Spending (Dec.) Economic growth in China probably slowed last quarter, even though the official figures paint a picture of continued stability. 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Growth to slow from a five-year high Growth in Emerging Asia reached a five-year high in 2017 but we think that it has now peaked and will slow gradually over the next couple of years. The main headwind will come from the export sector... 16th January 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities shrug off weak Chinese imports The prices of most commodities edged higher this week. Industrial metals rallied despite Chinese trade data showing that domestic demand had weakened at the end of 2017. Meanwhile, heightened... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports end 2017 with a slump China’s commodity imports dropped in December, coming off strong growth in November. But volumes remained healthy for 2017 as a whole. We expect imports to fall back as growth in China’s economy slows... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) The slowdown in broad credit growth that has been underway since mid-2016 continued last month. Policymakers may welcome this progress toward deleveraging for now. But we think the drag on economic... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.) Our tracker suggests that EM capital outflows picked up a bit in December, but remained slow over the year as a whole. Portfolio flows into EMs hit a record high last year, and look strong going into... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Dec.) Export growth declined slightly last month but remained healthy. In contrast, import growth slowed sharply, raising questions over the state of domestic demand. Divergent prospects for growth in China... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Freezing winter weather heats up energy prices Adverse weather conditions in the US and China have boosted US gas consumption and highlighted China’s dependence on coal. But as the weather normalises, and domestic gas infrastructure improves, we... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC’s hands are tied over US Treasury holdings A Bloomberg report that Chinese officials are considering halting purchases of US government debt triggered a sell-off in the US Treasury market today. In fact, China has not been buying US debt for... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Inflation ended 2017 on a softer note, with a decline in both producer price inflation and non-food consumer price inflation. This is consistent with our view that cooling price pressures will open... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Aluminium still in comfortable supply Aluminium production in China is likely to continue to fall over the next few months as the Chinese authorities impose output cuts. While this would give the impression of a tighter market, Shanghai... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation set to jump We expect consumer price inflation to surge over the coming months on the back of a spike in food price inflation. However, with core inflation probably close to a peak and producer price inflation... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China PMIs suggest a strong end to 2017 China’s official and unofficial manufacturing PMIs diverged again in December, but both point to a solid performance at end-2017. However, we remain cautious on the outlook for 2018 and expect tighter... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Dec.) The PMIs ended 2017 on a strong note. But if the past couple of quarters are any guide, this may not translate into an improvement in the hard data. And even if economic activity did pick up last... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
