China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The survey data don’t offer a clear signal on the strength of factory activity last month. The Caixin manufacturing PMI was largely unchanged but the official index dropped sharply. The former is... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Feb.) A sharp decline in the official manufacturing PMI this month suggests that the survey data may finally be responding to the slowdown in growth shown on our China Activity Proxy late last year. And... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Jan.) The latest trade data for India and China were a mixed bag. On the one hand, China’s gold imports bounced back, pointing to strong demand ahead of the New Year holiday. On the other hand, India’s... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Jan.) Our estimates show that outflow pressures eased at the start of this year after picking up in the fourth quarter. Foreign investors acquired Chinese financial assets at a more rapid pace last month... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jan.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 0.8% y/y increase in global steel production in January led by higher output in the EU, India and Turkey. US production remained weak, which is one reason... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update President for life? The removal of the two-term limit on China’s president is the clearest sign yet that Xi Jinping is reversing China’s reform era shift toward more institutionalised and rule-based politics. The quality... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade carries over momentum into 2018 Global trade volumes grew by 4.5% in 2017 as a whole – the fastest rate of annual growth in five years, and faster than the 3.7% expansion in global GDP. Encouragingly, the signs are that world trade... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why the EM growth cycle is close to peaking The consensus on growth in Emerging Markets (EMs) remains too rosy; by contrast we think that the current cycle is now close to peaking. While we do not expect EM growth to collapse, we do think it... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Prospects for iron ore remain grim The price of iron ore has been remarkably stable recently despite a slump in Chinese steel prices. In this Metals Watch, we make the case that the market is factoring in too much optimism about demand... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Headwinds from pollution crackdown set to ease One recent headwind to economic growth has been the government’s winter pollution crackdown in northern China, which has triggered numerous factory closures. This has had the desired impact of... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Chinese banks issued a record amount of new loans last month. But that happens at the start of almost every year. While the eye-popping new loan numbers will grab the headlines, the more important... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) The latest drop in consumer price inflation is largely seasonal and should reverse this month. The same cannot be said for the decline in producer price inflation, which points to a further easing in... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers pushing back on renminbi Today’s sharp move in the renminbi underlines the extent to which policymakers are keen to prevent the emergence of strong speculative pressures on the currency. 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports bounce back China’s commodity import volumes rebounded strongly in January. Admittedly, this partly reflects seasonal volatility associated with the Chinese New Year. But it also seems likely that demand from the... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jan.) Trade growth at the start of 2018 beat expectations by a wide margin. But seasonal volatility means that we won’t get a clear reading on the pace of shipments in and out of China until next month. 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Jan.) China’s foreign exchange reserves data suggest that the People’s Bank has not been directly intervening to limit the renminbi’s recent gains against the dollar. That partly reflects the fact that the... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
