China Chart Pack China facing mounting tariff threat The trade sanctions announced so far this year by the Trump administration on solar panels, washing machines, steel and aluminium have been inconsequential from China’s perspective: the US last year... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.) Today’s data are broadly upbeat and suggest that the Chinese economy had a strong start to the year. But we expect growth to begin slowing again in the months ahead as the one-off boost to output from... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Government overhauled to strengthen Party control A sweeping overhaul of the structure of China’s government unveiled at the National People’s Congress today could improve financial regulation, reduce red tape for business, and boost productivity in... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Government overhauled to strengthen Party control A sweeping overhaul of the structure of China’s government unveiled at the National People’s Congress today could improve financial regulation, reduce red tape for business, and boost productivity in... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) The amount of new loans issued by Chinese banks fell sharply last month. But this happens in February of almost every year. More important is that broader credit growth is now at multi-year lows. 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) Consumer price inflation rose sharply last month after a fall in January, boosted by a New Year-driven rebound in food price inflation. We think a further rise in food inflation will keep the headline... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Trump, trade and the protectionist threat: a primer Fears are growing that recent developments in the US, including the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminium as well as the apparent ascendancy of economic nationalists within the White House, may... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update No need for concern over China’s February imports China’s commodity import volumes fell back sharply in February, but this can probably be explained by the week-long New Year holiday which fell in the middle of the month. The bigger picture is that... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Feb.) The surge in export growth last month largely reflects the shifting timing of Chinese New Year. Of greater significance given the current climate of concern over US protectionism, China’s surplus with... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A trade war against China would not be “easy to win” The resignation of Gary Cohn, reportedly one of the strongest proponents of free-trade policies within the Trump administration, has raised fears that US trade policy may now turn sharply towards... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Feb.) China’s foreign exchange reserve figures suggest that the People’s Bank remained a minor player in the FX market last month. But its pledge to allow a more market-driven exchange rate will be tested... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New Year effects to have lifted inflation in February Following a fall in January, consumer price inflation will probably have jumped last month to a one-year high. We expect a further rise in food price inflation to keep the headline rate elevated over... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress China’s retention of an “about 6.5%” growth target for GDP in 2018, while expected, undermines the argument that growth is being demoted as a central policy concern. Growth is likely to slow we... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump, tariffs and potential triggers The steel and aluminium import tariffs announced by the US yesterday are unlikely to have a major impact on emerging economies but fears that they might presage a broader shift towards protectionism... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Pain ahead for property developers China’s property sector has had a good couple of years and this has resulted in higher valuations for listed real estate developers. But the recent strength of land sales points, we think, to... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Direct impact of US steel tariffs is small The imposition of US tariffs on steel and aluminium would have little direct impact on Asian economies. The bigger risk is that they represent the latest steps towards a damaging trade war. 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
