Commodities Update Heavy industry unlikely to lift China’s PMI for long China’s unofficial and official manufacturing PMIs diverged again in March. The easing of pollution controls on heavy industry gave a boost to the official index, but slower growth elsewhere weighed... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The unofficial PMI declined last month even as the official index rose. This suggests that while the recent easing of pollution controls has led to a rebound in heavy industry, broader economic... 2nd April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Dancing to a different tune Chinese financial markets have defied global trends recently. Looser monetary conditions have pulled down the country’s bond yields since the start of the year while yields abroad were rising until... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Attack on US soybean farmers would hurt China too China’s low-key response to last week’s tariff announcement by President Trump reflects in part a desire not to exacerbate tensions further. But Chinese officials will also be aware that, while they... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Better news at the start of Q1 Having slowed over the final quarter of last year, our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth nudged up for the first time in five months in January. 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Feb.) The latest trade data for India and China showed divergent trends in the two largest consumers. On the one hand, China’s gold imports remained robust although underlying demand appears to have... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will the new Chinese crude contract matter for prices? In our view, the new yuan-denominated crude futures contract should have no long-term impact on oil prices, even if it becomes a major benchmark. At any rate, a history of extreme volatility in China... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What impact will tariffs on China have on the rest of Asia? Donald Trump’s plans for a 25% tariff on up to $60bn of Chinese imports are unlikely to have much impact on the rest of Asia. However, as the market reaction today highlights, the threat of a further... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Likely damage to China from tariffs only 0.1% of GDP The tariffs announced today will cause difficulties for some firms exporting from China but will have a barely perceptible impact on China’s wider economy. The key uncertainty now is whether President... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How big a deal are the China tariffs? The tariffs on Chinese imports outlined by President Donald Trump today won’t have a huge impact on the economy even if implemented in full, and we suspect they will end up being watered down. But as... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The PBOC continues to pretend to follow the Fed For the second time since December, the People’s Bank has responded to a Fed rate hike by raising the rates it charges when providing funds in China’s interbank market. But contrary to perceptions, it... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth stable at the start of the year Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth has stabilised recently after a sharp slowdown since the middle of 2017. Economic conditions may improve in the near term as the government’s... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Feb.) Capital outflows edged up slightly in February in seasonally-adjusted terms, though they remain low. The PBOC again refrained from directly intervening in FX markets last month. But with the economy... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New PBOC chief a safe choice but his hands are tied After 15 years at the helm of the People’s Bank, Zhou Xiaochuan is passing the title of governor to his protégé Yi Gang, a technocrat with two decades of experience at the central bank. Yi has been a... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All quiet on the commodities front There were few large moves in commodity prices this week. China’s activity data for the first two months of the year, published on Wednesday, were reasonably strong but failed to give a material lift... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor US tariff action on China would hit other EMs too Media reports suggest that the US is planning to impose more extensive tariffs on China. This could have a significant knock-on impact for a number of economies in Emerging Asia (Taiwan, Malaysia... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
