China Economics Update RRR cut to support lending to small firms Today required reserve ratio (RRR) cut doesn’t constitute broad monetary easing. But it does signal that – despite the recent strength of the official data – policymakers are starting to balance... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q1) & Activity & Spending (Mar.) As expected, China’s GDP growth remained uncannily stable last quarter. In practice, growth is almost certainly slower than officials claim and looks to have edged down slightly last quarter. But the... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Mar.) There was a seasonal pick-up in new lending last month but underlying growth in broad credit continued to slow and is now at its lowest rate in over a decade. Our China Activity Proxy suggests that... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodity import volumes held up in Q1 China’s commodity import volumes picked up in March, after the holiday-related slump in February. However, we expect import volumes to ease back in the coming months as activity slows as a result of... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Mar.) Lunar New Year effects continued to distort China’s headline trade figures last month. But looking through this seasonal volatility, shipments look to have remained healthy, serving as a reminder that... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Today’s softer-than-expected inflation data are consistent with our view that cooling price pressures will open the door to further monetary easing in the coming quarters. 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Has Xi done enough to placate Trump? In an attempt to de-escalate trade tensions, Xi has pledged to speed up efforts to reduce trade and investment barriers, boost competition and bolster intellectual property protections. This could... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Has Xi done enough to placate Trump? In an attempt to de-escalate trade tensions, Xi has pledged to speed up efforts to reduce trade and investment barriers, boost competition and bolster intellectual property protections. This could... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is it time to worry about a trade war? While we still think that negotiations will win out over all-out trade war, the risks of a damaging trade conflict breaking out between the US and China have risen. If the latest US-proposed tariffs... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade tensions to remain at the top of the agenda The escalating threats over tariffs between the US and China have dominated the headlines this week. But next week could bring the more positive news of a ‘preliminary’ deal on NAFTA. Reports suggest... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is it time to worry about a trade war? While we still think that negotiations will win out over all-out trade war, the risks of a damaging trade conflict breaking out between the US and China have risen. If the latest US-proposed tariffs... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How will China respond to additional US tariffs? If the USTR follows through on Trump’s request to add an additional $100bn worth of Chinese imports to the proposed US tariff list, the Chinese will be reluctant to capitulate and seem likely to... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rising trade tensions increase upside risks to inflation We think consumer price inflation will have risen further last month to a fresh multi-year high, boosted by a rise in food price inflation. This probably marks the peak for inflation this year, though... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Declaration of (trade) war? The speed and scale of China’s retaliation to the proposed US tariffs represents a significant escalation of tensions, though there is still plenty of time for a deal to be struck before tariffs come... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US-China trade tensions and the impact on EMs The proposed US tariffs on imports of Chinese goods could have knock-on effects on other EMs, especially in East Asia, via supply chains. And countries such as Turkey are vulnerable to a deterioration... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China raises the stakes of US trade action China’s rapid and aggressive response to the proposed US tariffs has raised the stakes for both sides. But its move to publish a list of counter-tariffs is primarily intended as a deterrent and we... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
