China Economics Update Inflation has peaked Consumer price inflation will probably have edged down further in April following a spike in February that took the headline rate to the highest since 2013. We think inflation will be broadly stable... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus China & Africa: Setting the record straight Perceptions of the economic ties between China and Africa are often based on inaccurate assumptions. In this Focus we debunk three key myths. The China-Africa relationship is not as state-driven, as... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s April PMIs point to stability China’s unofficial and official manufacturing PMIs for April painted a relatively stable picture. It seems likely that the return of industrial capacity, after anti-pollution measures closed plants... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The stability of the Caixin PMI last month suggests there is little immediate cause for concern over the health of China’s economy. That said, we do expect growth to start slowing again before long. 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Apr.) The official manufacturing PMI points to economic conditions having remained healthy in April. But with headwinds from the property sector and slower credit growth building, we don’t think this... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equities fall to multi-month low China’s equity markets dropped this month to their lowest since 2016 as the US-China trade conflict escalated. Meanwhile, a jump in interbank interest rates may put pressure on the country’s bond... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Quiet after the storm The earlier surge in oil and industrial metals prices came to an abrupt halt this week as oil stabilised and there were sharp falls in the prices of some metals. In particular, the US Treasury’s... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand & Supply Monitor (Q1) China’s industrial activity held up well in the first quarter of 2018, but year-on-year growth in some of the more metal-intensive sectors slowed from the previous quarter. Moreover, we expect the... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Booming land sales flatter local government finances In aggregate, local government debt ratios have been fairly stable during the past few years and there has been a clear improvement in the composition of the debt. But the picture looks less rosy once... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Mar.) The latest trade data for India and China showed that imports of gold in the two largest consumers weakened in March. Higher prices probably discouraged purchases. We had warned that this could happen... 26th April 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Mar.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 4.0% y/y increase in global steel production in March, driven by higher output in China, India and the US. We expect this trend to continue over the coming... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth edges up as pollution controls ease Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the easing of the government’s pollution crackdown contributed to a pick-up in economic growth last month. But the rebound will likely prove short-lived. 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) A rise in US-China trade tensions has dominated headlines in recent weeks. But recent developments are not having any impact on cross-border capital flows. Our estimates suggest that flows in and out... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Health of labour market as unclear as ever Investor scepticism about much of China’s economic data is deep-rooted and the unemployment figures have long been considered among the worst of the lot. So the release this week of a new, survey... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Short-term risks of protectionism are overstated Even if the US and China were to follow through on their recent protectionist threats, the impact on global growth in the next year or two would be small. Moreover, a bigger and more damaging... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Services slowdown led by finance, transport and retail The detailed breakdown of China’s Q1 GDP data released today suggests that although the IT sector has continued to boom, activity in the rest of the service sector has softened recently, offsetting a... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
