China Economics Focus Headwinds mount A trade spat with the US is one of a number of headwinds facing China’s economy over the coming year. They point to a slowdown not a slump. But the outlook further ahead is no better. Policymakers’... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Weaker growth to trigger shift in policy soon There have been clearer signs recently that China’s economy is slowing. We expect headwinds to economic growth to continue to build over the coming months and that this will prompt the People’s Bank... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (May) Today’s activity data were a mixed bag as industrial production and real estate activity picked up but retail sales and investment spending cooled last month. We think that activity will slow over the... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Five questions (and answers) on Trump-Kim summit Today’s historic summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un represents an extraordinary turn of events, and comes just a year after it appeared North Korea could be heading for a devastating war with... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) The value of new loans issued by Chinese banks edged down last month. But this often happens in May. More importantly, broad credit growth slowed further and is now the weakest in over a decade. 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weakness in China’s oil imports only temporary China’s commodity import volumes rebounded in May owing to a pick-up in demand for metals. However, imports of energy commodities remained weak. We still think that commodity import growth is likely... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (May) Import growth was surprisingly strong last month. This probably reflects a continued recovery in industrial activity following the easing of winter pollution controls and is unlikely to be sustained... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (May) The latest foreign exchange reserves data are consistent with very little PBOC action in the FX markets. This suggests that the recent resilience of the renminbi relative to other EM currencies... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Rising global oil prices will put upward pressure on Chinese inflation over the next few months. But with food and core inflation both likely to edge down, we expect headline consumer price inflation... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Contours of a possible trade deal are emerging China has reportedly fleshed out its offer to boost imports from the US. In return, the US is working on a deal to allow ZTE to resume operations and may call off the planned tariffs on Chinese goods... 6th June 2018 · 4 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Geopolitics more likely to affect ECB than the Fed For now, we don’t expect the geopolitical developments to alter the behaviour of the major central banks. Provided that the political crisis in Italy does not flare up again, we think the ECB is... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s May PMIs suggest solid economic growth China’s unofficial and official manufacturing PMIs for May point to a firm economic performance and are broadly consistent with the gains in industrial metals and coal prices last month. However, we... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May) The latest PMIs suggest that China continued to sustain rapid growth last month. But the surveys don’t tell the full story and have mostly defied a slowdown in the hard data during the past year. 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi still bucking EM trend The renminbi has weakened a little against the US dollar in recent weeks. But the Chinese currency has continued to appreciate in trade-weighted terms. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong dollar has bounced... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (May) Today’s strong set of official PMIs tell a reassuring story about current growth momentum and suggest that April’s recovery may have extended into May. However, we will have to wait for more reliable... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property investment is weaker than meets the eye Real estate investment has recently returned to double digit growth. But a closer look at the data reveals that this recovery has been entirely driven by a jump in developers’ land purchases, which is... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
