Commodities Chart Pack Rising protectionism drags on commodity prices Overview – Most commodity prices fell in June, depressed by escalating trade tensions and a stronger US dollar. Energy prices were the main exception. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs signal weaker demand China’s unofficial and official manufacturing PMIs point to a somewhat softer economy in June. We expect further weakness ahead, which will continue to weigh on the prices of most commodities. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Jun.) The latest PMI readings suggest that the economy lost some momentum last month. With credit growth still cooling and US tariffs imminent, we expect further weakness ahead. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Market slide stemmed, property strained, tariffs loom A promise of support from the People’s Bank helped stem the slide in both the renminbi and Shanghai equities today. If declines resume next week, we would expect more forceful intervention to support... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asian markets take a beating on trade war fears Rising US-China trade tensions, fears over the outlook for China’s domestic economy and the uncertain outlook over US monetary policy have all weighed heavily on the region’s financial markets over... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Trade tensions cast a wide net Concerns about the escalation in trade tensions and the potential negative implications for global GDP growth have sparked a sell-off in commodity markets this month. However, even if fears of a trade... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC allows renminbi to weaken The latest escalation of US threats against China has triggered a slide in the renminbi. The People’s Bank appears to have done little to resist the move so far, but it will remain wary that sustained... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (May) The latest trade data for India and China show divergent trends in imports of gold by the two largest consumers. China’s gold imports rose strongly in May on the back of robust wholesale consumption... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor CAP eases growth concerns Worries about China’s economic outlook have increased recently. But our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth strengthened in May to the strongest rate so far this year. 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update RRR cut adds to signs of monetary policy shift Yesterday’s required reserve ratio (RRR) cut is officially intended to support banks’ debt-to-equity swaps rather than mark a shift away from deleveraging and toward monetary easing. But in practice... 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Time to worry about a trade war? Trade tensions have escalated faster and further than we had originally anticipated, capped this week by President Trump’s threat to apply a 10% tariff to $200bn of imports from China. We still think... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly RRR cut imminent, investment restrictions coming Escalating trade tensions with the US have led the news abroad, but in China much of the focus over the past week has been on the outlook for the domestic economy and policy. An RRR cut appears... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Capital flows balanced despite rise in trade tensions Against a backdrop of rising trade tensions with the US and jitters about the wider outlook for emerging economies, capital flows in and out of China have been broadly balanced. Global investors still... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s next steps If President Trump follows through on his threat to expand further the range of Chinese goods subjectto punitive tariffs, China is likely to respond quickly by targeting US firms operating in China... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What would a US-China trade war mean for Asia? Trade tensions between the US and China have been ratcheted up another notch after US President Donald Trump yesterday threatened to impose a 10% tariff on a further US$200bn of Chinese imports... 19th June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Will tariffs dampen oil demand? The retaliatory tariffs which China has threatened to impose on oil imports from the US would not in themselves change the balance of supply and demand in global oil markets. But if China chooses to... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
