China Economics Update Service sector holds up despite slower retail spending The detailed breakdown of China’s Q2 GDP data released today points toward resilient service sector activity last quarter, with the booming IT sector more than offsetting a slowdown in retail spending... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Slower growth in China will lead to lower coal prices A slowdown in China’s economic growth over the next year combined with the ongoing rise in renewable and natural gas-fired power generation should weigh on demand for coal and reduce prices. 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q2) & Activity & Spending (Jun.) Official GDP growth edged down last month but, unsurprisingly, remained rapid and in line with the government targets. Debates about the true pace of growth aside, it’s noteworthy that whereas in... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Case for policy easing continuing to build The release of disappointing credit data a month ago catalysed a deterioration in sentiment about China’s economy. Today’s even weaker figures will only add to those concerns, with the early signs... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) A further slowdown in lending in June adds downside risks to economic growth and is likely to trigger a policy response. 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports come off the boil China’s commodity import volumes were markedly lower in June. High prices could have deterred oil imports, while ongoing efforts to combat pollution curbed imports of metals and ores. Crude imports... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jun.) Chinese exports held up well on the eve of US tariffs. But weaker-than-expected import figures point to a renewed slowdown in domestic demand heading into the second half of the year. 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Manufacturing dominance will cushion tariff blow China has more to lose economically from a trade war than the US. But the damage as the Trump administration expands tariffs will be mitigated by China’s high market share in many of the targeted... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The impact of Trump’s China tariffs on the rest of Asia US plans to impose tariffs on an additional $200bn of Chinese imports represent a marked escalation of the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China. The tariffs would have knock-on effects on... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Expanded US tariffs strengthen case for policy easing The US is moving ahead with plans to impose a 10% tariff on an additional $200bn of imports from China. This will add to existing headwinds on China’s growth and is likely to trigger further policy... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) Today’s inflation data show little change in price pressures last month beyond a mild boost from higher oil prices. Tariffs may start to inject some additional volatility into the price data soon but... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Domestic headwinds building Sentiment about China’s economic prospects has worsened recently as trade tensions have escalated. The tariffs announced so far won’t have a big impact though. Instead, we expect economic growth to... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Letting go of equities, holding the renminbi Chinese policymakers are intervening to stem market declines, but unevenly: they appear much more concerned about the currency than about equities. Meanwhile, worries about the domestic outlook... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Trade war fears prompt metals sell-off Metals prices were caught up in the general market sell-off following the ramping up of tensions between the US and China in June. (See Chart.) Signs of softer economic growth in China also... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What can China’s equities tell us about commodities? We do not think that the latest slump in China’s equity prices will make a meaningful difference to the country’s commodity demand. However, it does suggest that investors are coming round to our long... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Surveys point to rebound in Q2, despite trade jitters Markit’s global manufacturing PMI slipped at the end of Q2 but remains consistent with a rebound in world GDP growth. We think that the latter picked up to over 3½% annualised last quarter. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
