China Data Response Trade (Jul.) Chinese export growth held steady last month with few signs of much impact from the first round of US tariffs on $34bn worth of Chinese exports, which came into force on 6th July. Import growth jumped... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Tariffs and renminbi fall won’t cause jump in inflation If carried out, China’s threat last week to expand tariffs to cover more than 70% of its imports from the US would nudge up import costs, though only very slightly. The renminbi’s recent depreciation... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Jul.) A rise in China’s foreign exchange reserves in July suggests that the People’s Bank did not deploy them to defend the renminbi last month. It may do so soon, however, given growing concerns over... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Renminbi decline will soften tariff blow The People’s Bank is signalling increasing discomfort with the recent pace of renminbi declines, including with a new restriction on forward currency transactions today. But the depreciation so far in... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs point to subdued commodities demand The latest falls in China’s PMI readings underpin our view that China’s economy is entering a softer patch, which is likely to prevent any significant rebound in commodity prices in the coming months. 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The latest Caixin manufacturing PMI reading suggests that the sector lost a little momentum in July. We expect further weakness ahead. 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Jul.) The latest survey data suggest that a weaker renminbi is helping to dampen the impact of US tariffs but that domestic headwinds continued to weigh on economic activity in July. 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly More easing coming, China still in US crosshairs Policy easing efforts were expanded this week. Fiscal loosening was given the green light. The People’s Bank adopted a more proactive approach to ensuring that its liquidity injections translate into... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Jun.) The latest trade data for India and China show divergent trends in imports of gold by the two largest consumers. China’s gold imports continued to soar on the back of strong wholesale consumption... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Boost from looser pollution controls starts to fade Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic growth softened slightly last month after picking up in April and May. We think momentum will weaken further over the second half of this year. 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Next round of trade war likely to hit US assets harder Despite the resilience of the S&P 500 recently, US assets have not been altogether immune to trade tensions. And we think that they will come under a lot more pressure if, as seems increasingly likely... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Jun.) Capital outflows from China only picked up slightly in June despite the market sell-off in the second half of the month. But there are tentative signs in the early indicators that outflows accelerated... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Loosening drive gains momentum The State Council has called for more proactive fiscal policy, including additional tax cuts. This follows further, large liquidity injections by the People’s Bank. While the direct impact of these... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC FX policy becoming more hands-on again The People’s Bank appears to be leaning against downward market pressure on the renminbi. But the depreciation it has allowed so far will already provide a cushion for China’s exporters as they face... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A shift in fiscal policy is coming The Ministry of Finance is pushing back against calls to loosen policy. It may have little choice but to oblige, however, if headwinds to growth intensify in the coming quarters as we expect. 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Corporate defaults surge Corporate bond defaults in China have jumped recently, adding to worries about the economic outlook. July is on track to more than double the previous monthly record for the scale of onshore bonds... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
