China Data Response Official PMIs (Aug.) Today’s better-than-expected PMI readings suggest that output growth may have edged up last month. But the breakdown of the surveys point to a further weakening in demand, consistent with our view... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Efforts to prop up infrastructure investment falling short Although fiscal policy has become more proactive lately, a reluctance to turn to off-budget borrowing means that policymakers aren’t yet doing enough to arrest the slowdown in infrastructure... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update After Mexico, could a US-China deal follow? This week’s agreement between the US and Mexico has raised hopes that the US and China could also resolve their dispute. But the agreement with Mexico underlines how much hangs on whether President... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Weak consumer demand to drag on gold prices The latest trade data for India and China show divergent trends in imports of gold by the two largest consumers. China’s gold imports dropped on signs that the economy is slowing, while India’s... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly National team falls flat, pork jitters, policy “irrigation” The benchmark Shanghai Composite equity index this week returned to the low point reached in the equity collapse of early 2016. Official efforts to shore up the market have proved predictably... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth weakens Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic growth slowed in July to the weakest pace in five months. We think the slowdown has further to run. The US-China trade conflict will be a drag on... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update State firms step in to counter private-sector outflows Private firms and individuals may have pulled capital out of China in recent weeks in response to concerns about the renminbi, trade tensions and the economy. But intervention by state banks and firms... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jul.) Global aluminium output was up by nearly 3% y/y in July, owing to higher production in China and India. We had warned that this could happen as the prospect of China’s anti-pollution winter cuts and... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Property prices defy curbs, PBOC props up the RMB One bright spot in the generally downbeat economic data released this week was a further acceleration in property sales and prices last month. The pick-up was driven by China’s smaller cities, where... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Bad loans on the rise Commercial banks’ non-performing loans (NPL) rose by RMB183bn in Q2, the biggest increase in over a decade. On paper, bad loans now make up just under 2% of all loans, the highest ratio since the... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jul.) The activity and spending data for July all came in below consensus expectations despite surprisingly strong external demand. This highlights the continued strong headwinds to domestic demand from... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) Growth in bank lending picked up last month to the fastest pace this year. However, a further slowdown in other forms of credit, including shadow financing, mean that broad credit growth continued to... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Cuts to official policy rates are coming soon Market interbank rates have now converged with those offered by the People’s Bank in its lending operations. We think the central bank will soon start cutting these official policy rates in order to... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) Today’s higher-than-expected inflation figures reflect a temporary boost from higher oil prices, along with the usual volatility in food prices. If anything, broader price pressures appear to be... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strength in China’s imports unlikely to be sustained China’s commodity import volumes revived in July, but from a low base a month earlier. Indeed, we think import volumes will fall back in the coming months in line with the slowdown in economic... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand & Supply Monitor (Q2) China’s industrial activity held up well in the first half of 2018 but there are now clear signs that the economy is losing momentum, which is likely to prevent any significant gains in industrial... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
