China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) Overall credit growth in China stabilised in August but further policy easing will be needed to prevent it from slipping again in the coming months. 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The macroeconomic fallout from a China-US trade war For many companies the effects of the US and China imposing tariffs on all their bilateral trade would be substantial. But the macroeconomic consequences for the two countries, let alone the wider... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain subdued China’s commodity import volumes slipped back in August, which is consistent with generally softer economic data. While there are signs that the government is moving to a somewhat more accommodative... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Inflation & Trade (Aug.) Consumer price inflation picked up last month, as African swine flu led to a jump in pork prices. But with broad price pressures still relatively subdued, it’s still too soon to sound the alarm on... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Aug.) The People’s Bank still appears reluctant to deploy its FX reserves in order to support the renminbi. We suspect that it is leaning on state-owned financial institutions to sell foreign assets in its... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Inflation fears overdone, more policy tweaks Chinese consumers appear to have become more worried about inflation recently. But these concerns may reflect a broader sense of unease among households in response to a weakening labour market rather... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Assessing the inflation risk from African swine fever The spread of African swine fever in China has brought echoes of 2007 and 2011, when major pig disease outbreaks caused spikes in pork prices and headline inflation. But improvements in China’s... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa & China: Putting the Focac summit in context Attention focused on China-Africa ties this week as leaders from across the continent met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing for a major summit. In this Update we attempt to situate the... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Re-visiting the iron ore forecast Previously volatile iron ore prices have barely moved in the last six months. Despite ample supply, strong growth in China’s steel production supported prices. That said, we expect steel output to... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property developers are turning more cautious China’s land market has been on a tear during the past couple of years. But with officials now clamping down on the cash handouts to shantytown residents that have been supporting property demand... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs offer little support to prices China’s PMI readings for August confirm our view that the economy is slowing as a result of subdued domestic demand. Although some policy easing is underway, it will be some time before this... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The latest survey data suggest that China’s economy continued to come under pressure last month. We expect further weakness ahead despite the shift toward policy easing. 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four quick points on the trade war While the threat of a US-Mexico trade war may have diminished, the trade conflict between the US and China looks set to escalate. And overall, protectionist rhetoric and policies are likely to... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Are Chinese tariffs on US LNG a big deal? It looks increasingly likely that the Chinese government will levy a 25% tariff on imports of US liquefied natural gas (LNG). But we suspect that any tariff will have only a limited impact on prices... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Trade war or cold war? The end of the summer in Beijing has brought with it a hardening of views on the trade dispute with the US. Increasingly, tariffs are being seen not as negotiating ploys to win run-of-the-mill... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Aug.) Today’s better-than-expected PMI readings suggest that output growth may have edged up last month. But the breakdown of the surveys point to a further weakening in demand, consistent with our view... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
