China Chart Pack Hong Kong’s role as a gateway to China at risk Hong Kong’s GDP is now just 3% of mainland China’s, down from 18% in 1997 when the city returned to Chinese control. But Hong Kong still serves as the main gateway between China and the world where... 22nd August 2019 · 12 mins read
China Activity Monitor Recent strength unlikely to last Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth remained strong at the start of Q3. However, with external headwinds mounting and property development likely to moderate, economic activity looks... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Loan Prime Rate (Aug.) The newly revamped Loan Prime Rate (LPR), intended to replace the traditional benchmark lending rate as the reference point against which banks price loans, was launched today. The one-year LPR was... 20th August 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Interest rate reform with a side of policy easing A long-awaited shake-up of how China’s banks price loans should in time give policymakers much finer control of bank lending rates and could open the door to a quasi-rate cut as soon as tomorrow. But... 19th August 2019 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Foreign factories struggle, HK stimulus not enough A slump in exports by foreign firms is behind much of the recent slowdown in industrial production. While Chinese officials may appreciate the irony of foreign-owned factories being the worst hit by... 16th August 2019 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Protests to push Hong Kong into a recession Disruptions from the ongoing protests look set to pull down Hong Kong’s GDP growth to its lowest since the global financial crisis this quarter and there is a growing risk of an even worse outcome if... 14th August 2019 · 4 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jul.) After improving in June, economic conditions worsened across the board last month as growth in industrial production, capital spending and retail sales all dropped back. We see more weakness on the... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) The latest slowdown in lending highlights the need for further monetary easing if policymakers are to succeed in putting a floor beneath growth. 12th August 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) Weakening demand dragged producer price inflation into negative territory last month even as surging pork prices continued to push up consumer price inflation. Both have downbeat implications for the... 9th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Upturn in China’s imports flatters to deceive China’s commodity imports jumped in July, but this comes after pitifully low volumes in prior months and, in some cases, merely reflected improved availability. As such, it is unlikely to mark the... 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly The pros and cons of a weaker renminbi The recent weakening of the renminbi has revived a debate over the economic impact of currency depreciation. There will be both winners and losers domestically. But given that China’s government... 8th August 2019 · 7 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Jul.) Shipments in and out of China held up better than expected last month, but a sustained turnaround still looks unlikely in the near-term. 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Jul.) The latest FX reserves figures are consistent with the People’s Bank (PBOC) having remained on the sidelines of the FX market last month. But the relative calm of July will give way to a more eventful... 7th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The spiralling trade war and what it means for EMs The latest phase of the trade war is likely to have a relatively limited direct impact on EM exports. But with the US and Chinese policymakers upping the ante, the indirect effects via a hit to... 6th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update China’s next steps in the trade war China is left with few good options to hit back at the US in ways that wouldn’t be self-defeating. Rather than direct retaliation, officials are therefore likely to focus their efforts on broader... 6th August 2019 · 10 mins read
China Economics Update FX manipulator label to further strain bilateral relations The US decision to label China a currency manipulator is on shaky economic grounds since, if anything, the renminbi would be even weaker than it is now without policy support. But the move is another... 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read
