China Data Response FX Reserves (Sep.) China’s FX reserves declined unexpectedly last month but officials claim this was due to valuation effects and muted outflow pressures suggest that the PBOC will have felt little urgency to run down... 7th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Financial decoupling, Hong Kong retail collapse The restrictions on US capital flows into China reportedly being considered by the Trump administration would, at the margin, constrain China’s ability to fund overseas investment. But given China’s... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs provide cold comfort China’s official and unofficial PMIs rose in September, but we think this is unlikely to mark an economic turnaround not least because global demand looks set to weaken further. What’s more, signs of... 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Sep.) China’s manufacturing PMIs jumped this month, indicating that activity got a break from the ongoing slowdown. But this is unlikely to mark the start of a turnaround. There are signs of a slowdown in... 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Excess infrastructure, bond quota confusion Beijing’s new airport is a timely microcosm of a nationwide trend in which local governments have built unusually extensive infrastructure, much of which is under-utilised. As a result, investment... 27th September 2019 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack PBOC not tying its own hands with forward guidance PBOC Governor Yi Gang today appeared to pour cold water on the prospect of imminent monetary easing. He said that the PBOC would not rush to follow the US Fed and ECB in cutting rates and that “China... 24th September 2019 · 12 mins read
China Activity Monitor Growth edges down as property construction levels off Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth remains resilient but has edged down slightly since the end of Q2. With property construction no longer accelerating and broader activity still... 23rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack More good news than bad For all the talk of a global slowdown, the incoming data from the emerging world have been encouraging. Having bottomed out in Q2, GDP growth held steady at around 3.5% y/y at the start of Q3. EM... 20th September 2019 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal stance, pork reserves, PBOC easing Headline government spending has started to contract but tax cuts mean that the budget deficit is still close to its widest ever and we think the fiscal stance will remain accommodative in the coming... 20th September 2019 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Another small step towards lower rates The newly-revamped Loan Prime Rate (LPR), the reference point against which banks now price loans, came in slightly lower for September. We think that more decisive cuts will materialize before long. 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Monetary policy has lost its oomph The ability of monetary easing to stimulate credit growth in China has diminished and we think this will lead the People’s Bank to pull down interbank rates further than most anticipate. But even this... 19th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports stabilise, but outlook poor EM exports stabilised in July and August but, with the latest round of US-China tariffs yet to feed through and global growth subdued, we expect EM export growth to remain weak in the coming quarters. 18th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese outages won’t boost LME aluminium price Smelter outages in China have led to a surge in the ShFE price of aluminium, and there is mounting speculation that the LME price will soon follow suit. We disagree. In contrast, our in-house model... 18th September 2019 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Aug.) After worsening across the board in July, growth in industrial production, capital spending and retail sales fell even further last month. And with a strong rebound unlikely any time soon, we... 16th September 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Is inflation being misstated? Pork prices in early September are 70% higher than they were this time last year. How credible is it that overall consumer price inflation is just 2.8% y/y? 13th September 2019 · 5 mins read
