Precious Metals Update China and India Gold Imports (Sep.) Gold imports by China and India fell once again in September. With the Chinese economy set to slow and Indian consumer preferences slowly drifting away from gold, Asian physical demand is likely to... 25th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the cost of the wave of protests in EMs While protests have spread across several EMs, most notably Hong Kong, parts of Latin America and Lebanon, there is no mechanical link between unrest and economic growth and asset prices. 25th October 2019 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Business environment improves, net state assets rise Chinese authorities this week announced new regulations that promise to cut red tape and level the playing field for different types of firms from 1 st January. But the policies are at odds with the... 25th October 2019 · 6 mins read
China Activity Monitor Uptick in industry nudges up growth Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth edged up at the end of last quarter due to a rebound in industrial activity. But the prop from industry should be short-lived, and with the recent... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Construction strength offset by industry weakness The detailed breakdown of China’s Q3 GDP data released today shows that a slowdown in industry overshadowed strength in the construction sector. The headwinds to the construction sector should only... 21st October 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Easing yet to come The newly-revamped Loan Prime Rate (LPR), the reference point against which banks now price loans, was unchanged in October. This will only increase pressure on the PBOC to ease funding costs for... 21st October 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property financing slows, pig stock steadies, FDI stalls There are no signs that policy tightening on the property sector is abating, with data published this week showing a further rise in mortgage rates and a continued slowdown in lending to the sector... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q3), Activity & Spending (Sep.) An uptick in activity in September didn’t avert a slowdown last quarter. And policy support is unlikely to prevent cooling external demand and slowing construction from resulting in more weakness... 18th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus Decoupling, and its impact on growth The rift that has widened between China and the US was caused by China’s emergence as a geopolitical competitor to the US, rather than the personality of Donald Trump. Decoupling will continue whether... 17th October 2019 · 20 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) Credit growth failed to pick up in September despite recent policy easing. And while we expect policymakers to take more aggressive action before long, the impact of any easing on credit growth and... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep.) Headline inflation continued accelerating last month but core inflation held stable at a low level. With demand-side pressures on prices set to remain subdued in the coming months, we think that the... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports set to slow China’s commodity imports held up rather better than imports of other goods in September. However, we think import volumes will tail off in the months ahead amid faltering economic activity. 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update US and China no closer to a lasting resolution The US is attempting to pluck low-hanging fruit first, rather than hold out for a more complete trade deal with China. But reaching an agreement on the more contentious structural issues remains an... 14th October 2019 · 4 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Sep.) The contraction in both exports and imports deepened last month. Import growth should start to recover soon. But with the mini US-China trade deal unlikely to alleviate the main headwinds facing... 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Lasting trade deal elusive, holidaymakers stay home The US and China may be on the brink of a mini deal that postpones the US tariffs that are due to come into force next Tuesday. But with the key structural issues no closer to being resolved, we... 11th October 2019 · 8 mins read
China Economic Outlook Slowdown delayed not averted China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But with the boom in property construction on borrowed time and headwinds from higher food inflation and cooling global demand likely to... 10th October 2019 · 27 mins read
