EM Markets Chart Pack Equity rally unlikely to last, regardless of a trade deal EM equities have continued to rise over the past month, seemingly driven by optimism about an imminent US/China trade deal and some improvement in the economic data. But we are sceptical that the... 13th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update EM catch-up no longer the norm More EMs’ income levels have fallen relative to the US’s than have risen this year, the first time this has happened since the 1990s. This is likely to be a sign of things to come in the 2020s. 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The only way is down for Chinese steel Our forecast of a downturn in China’s property sector bodes ill for the price of Chinese steel. Moreover, falling iron ore prices and a bleak outlook for China’s steel exports will add to the downward... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) Monetary easing is failing to lift bank loan growth, while fiscal constraints are weighing on broader credit expansion. This should increase pressure on the PBOC to loosen policy more decisively. 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update The PBOC’s inflation dilemma The People’s Bank is powerless to stop consumer price inflation jumping above its target without undermining its broader mandate to support growth and employment. Given this trade-off we expect the... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports reflect weaker activity China’s commodity imports were generally weak in October, and we expect volumes to remain subdued in the coming months given our forecast of a further slowdown in China’s economy. 8th November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly “Proportional” deal, renminbi, bank mergers A “Phase One” US-China trade deal that partially rolls back tariffs now appears within reach and, as a result, we no longer expect further renminbi weakness in the remaining weeks of this year. But... 8th November 2019 · 7 mins read
China Data Response Trade (Oct.) The contraction in both exports and imports eased more than expected last month. But even if the “Phase One” US-China trade deal crosses the finish line, it is unlikely to alleviate the main headwinds... 8th November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Oct.) The official foreign exchange reserves figures suggest that the PBOC continued to refrain from direct FX intervention last month as renminbi depreciation pressure subsided. This points to a decline in... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC turning more proactive After keeping interbank rates broadly stable for most of this year, the People’s Bank (PBOC) is starting to take more direct steps to push down borrowing costs. We think this could mark the beginning... 5th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry on a stable footing in Q4 The EM manufacturing PMI stabilised in October and the breakdown provides further evidence that the downturn in EM export growth may have bottomed out. That said, any recovery is likely to be slow... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs tell contradictory stories There was a marked divergence between China’s October official and unofficial PMIs, which makes it difficult to gauge the underlying strength of the manufacturing sector. The rise in the Caixin PMI... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Plenum readout, stagflation fears, RCEP Summit The conclusion of the Communist Party Plenum offered few clues on the direction of economic policy. Meanwhile, rising inflation is leading to suggestions that the PBOC won’t be able to loosen as much... 1st November 2019 · 6 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) A divergence in the official and unofficial PMIs makes it unusually difficult to gauge how the economy performed at the start of Q4. On balance, growth appears to have picked up last month but... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Oct.) The official PMIs fell by more than expected this month, reinforcing our view that the improvement at the end of Q3 didn’t mark the start of a sustained recovery. 31st October 2019 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Corporate earnings falling short of expectations The corporate earnings season currently underway in China has been disappointing. Admittedly, the Q3 results published so far point to a slight improvement in year-on-year growth in earnings per share... 30th October 2019 · 11 mins read
