Chief Economist's Note The pandemic was no economic dry run for climate change A cartoon doing the rounds during the early days of the pandemic showed a series of waves poised to hit a city. The first, and smallest, was marked ‘COVID-19’, while the last – and much larger wave –... 19th June 2023
US Commercial Property Update Ranking metros by physical climate risks to real estate Florida and other parts of the Sunbelt (notably major cities in Texas) will likely face the most severe physical climate risk over the next 30 years. While this is unlikely to come as a major surprise... 14th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update Fixing leaks in Turkmenistan will only do so much Preventing large-scale leaks of methane from Turkmenistan’s creaking infrastructure would be a welcome sign of emissions-cutting efforts broadening out from carbon dioxide to include other harmful... 8th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Ajay Banga does not have a silver bullet Ajay Banga appears to be well qualified to lead the World Bank Group and is as well-placed as anyone to “mobilise” Wall Street cash to fund climate-related projects. However, progress on reducing... 31st May 2023 · 7 mins read
India Economics Focus India and the physical risks from climate change India’s economy is one of the most vulnerable in the world to the physical effects of climate change. Climate change alone won’t stop relatively rapid rates of growth over the coming decades. But it... 31st May 2023 · 12 mins read
Climate Economics Update Aviation pins its hopes on sustainable jet fuel The aviation sector is pinning its hopes on sustainable aviation fuel to help cut its carbon footprint over the coming decades. But any ramp-up in biofuel usage would pit aviation against the needs of... 25th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Climate Economics Focus Quantifying the economic hit from climate change Many academic studies underplay the extent to which higher temperatures could affect economic activity over the long run. Nonetheless, even in a scenario in which the global average temperature rose... 16th May 2023 · 14 mins read
Event Drop-In: Climate goals and the energy market’s radical redesign 17th May 2023, 3:00PM BST Although global energy consumption has increased 300% since 1965, the energy mix has barely budged, with the share of fossil fuels falling to just 82% from 93%. However, as economies of scale kick in…
Climate Economics Monthly China rebound to boost emissions; EU targets shipping The pick-up in our China Activity Proxy in March suggests that carbon dioxide emissions from the country ended Q1 growing at the fastest year-on-year rate since mid-2021. With the economy now expected... 28th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Energy Focus Introducing our long-term energy market forecasts The global energy market is in the early days of a radical redesign due to the need to cut greenhouse gas emissions. In this Focus, we introduce our long-term energy market forecasts, which are... 27th April 2023 · 14 mins read
Green Transition Chart Pack Renewable costs: what goes up must go down? In this new quarterly publication, the Capital Economics’ Climate and Commodities teams will track and analyse developments in the transition to a greener global economy. The sharp increases in the... 26th April 2023 · 10 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Assessing the physical climate change risks to property The physical risks facing commercial property are substantial with extreme weather events like floods and wildfires set to increase in both the US and Europe over the coming decades. Property markets... 21st April 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco-PIF, COP28, Tunisia politics, Black Sea grain The latest transfer of a 4% stake in Aramco by the Saudi government to the Public Investment Fund will help meet the Kingdom meet its Vision 2030 goals, but it will not reduce the state’s dependency... 20th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Update The economic implications of de-carbonising shipping The shipping industry is notable as being both a vital artery of world trade and one of the trickiest sectors to de-carbonise. This Update looks at five key questions on the near-term plans to reduce... 13th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Drought to push Argentina’s economy into deep recession The historic drought afflicting Argentina will cause a steeper contraction in GDP than most expect this year and intensify balance of payments strains by reducing export earnings to the tune of 2-3%... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update Voltaire would despair of the UK’s climate strategy The “ Powering up Britain” plan presented by the UK government this week highlights the benefits and limitations of official involvement in reducing emissions. On the one hand, the plans to reduce the... 31st March 2023 · 4 mins read
