Filtered by Topic: Monetary Policy Use setting Monetary Policy
Governor Ueda presided over his first policy meeting late last month and opted to keep all monetary policy settings, including Yield Curve Control (YCC), completely unchanged. To be sure, Mr Ueda also announced that the Bank will conduct a thorough review …
11th May 2023
Most EM central banks have drawn their monetary tightening cycles to a close now and, if history is any guide, it looks like the conditions will be in place for an easing cycle to start from around July/August. EM central banks were quick off the mark to …
10th May 2023
Disinflation process largely on track, rate cuts in 2024 Romania’s central bank (NBR) left its policy rate on hold as expected today, at 7.00%, and we think that it will keep policy rates unchanged throughout this year. Interest rate cuts are likely to …
Note: We discussed Turkey’s election in an online briefing on 10th May. Watch it here . There’s a lot of optimism that the opposition will emerge victorious in Turkey’s elections, which would pave the way for a return to orthodox economic policy. Were …
Inflation drops, but 25bp hike next week still more likely than not The drop in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 6.3% y/y in April, was broad-based and will provide some comfort to officials at the central bank that price pressures are finally easing. …
9th May 2023
Note: We’ll be discussing the economic and market risks around the upcoming Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections on at 09:00 EDT/14:00 BST on 10 th May . Register now. Despite a bumper week for economic data, currency markets remain in limbo. …
5th May 2023
Colombia: inflation worries taking centre stage We had warned a few weeks ago that Colombia’s central bank (BanRep) was too sanguine on inflation risks and this week’s communications suggest that policymakers are coming round to our view. At last …
April’s inflation data provided little sign that underlying price pressures are easing. Admittedly, the core rate edged down from 5.7% y/y in March to 5.6%, which was the first decline in 15 months. But that was entirely due to a decline in core goods …
Following the renewed concerns about regional US banks this week, markets are again pricing in interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada later this year. From a domestic perspective, however, the strength of the local real estate board data in April and …
The April employment report showed that while jobs growth remains solid enough, it is still trending lower and the surveys suggest activity growth is slowing too. With ongoing concerns over regional banks looking more likely to result in a further …
Note: We’ll be discussing the economic and market risks around the upcoming Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections on at 09:00 EDT/14:00 BST on 10 th May . Register now. Turkey’s election race heats up Opinion polls are now painting a clearer …
Hard data released this week paint a more downbeat picture of the euro-zone economy than the latest surveys. Three points are worth highlighting. First, the data confirm that the 0.1% q/q rise in euro-zone GDP in Q1 masks a greater weakness in domestic …
The Thai economy is poised for recovery this year, but before that the country faces a contentious general election on 14th May which could be a trigger for fresh political unrest. Beyond the near term, the country’s economic potential looks set to be …
Will 4.50% be the peak? Markets and economists have come round to our view that rates will rise to 4.50% 4.50% may well be the peak Risk is that resilient economy and sticky inflation prompt rise to 4.75% or 5.00% With the financial markets and other …
4th May 2023
We forecast small further falls in the yields of long-dated US Treasuries and euro-zone sovereign bonds between now and the end of next year, as disinflation picks up steam and central banks turn more dovish. Investors largely shrugged off this week’s …
Today’s 25bp decision was in line with market expectations and the views of most forecasters polled by Reuters – though we had been in the minority forecasting 50bp. The move marks a slowing in the pace of policy tightening and suggests at face value that …
The Norges Bank raised its policy rate by 25bp today, to 3.25%, but unlike the Fed we think the tightening cycle in Norway has further to run. That said, we think that inflation will fall more quickly than the central bank anticipates next year, allowing …
Brazilian policymakers gave a firm push back against any expectations for imminent monetary easing at yesterday’s central bank meeting, supporting our view that interest rates will be lowered a bit more slowly over the next 6-12 months than most expect. …
The market has finally come round to our long-standing view that Bank Rate will rise to 4.5%, with the Bank of England to likely to deliver another 25 basis point hike when it meets on 11 th May. But what will follow? Resilient activity data and …
The Fed’s new policy statement provides the clearest hint yet that the 25bp rate hike today is likely to be the last. We expect economic weakness and a sharper-than-expected drop back in core inflation to convince officials to start cutting rates again …
3rd May 2023
Fed’s focus will turn to policy loosening before long The Fed’s new policy statement provides the clearest hint yet that the 25bp rate hike today is likely to be the last. We expect economic weakness and a sharper-than-expected drop back in core inflation …
We expect a final 25bp rate hike from the Fed today, to 5.00-5.25%... (19.00 BST) ...and a 50bp hike from the ECB tomorrow, to 3.50% (13.15 BST) The US trade deficit probably narrowed sharply in March (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The FOMC looks set to …
The Czech central bank (CNB) left its main policy rate on hold at 7.00% as expected today, but it looks like policymakers set out to strengthen their hawkish rhetoric and downplay expectations of an imminent cut in interest rates. The message was loud and …
Note: We'll be discussing Turkey's election in an online briefing at 09:00 EDT/14:00 BST on 10th May . Register here . Parliamentary and presidential elections on 14 th May will make or break macroeconomic stability in Turkey. As things stand it looks …
CNB still on pause, but cuts not far away The Czech National Bank (CNB) left its main policy rate on hold again today, at 7.00%, but we think that interest rate cuts are not far away, with policymakers likely to kickstart the loosening cycle in September. …
Note: We’re holding a special 20-minute online briefing all about EM debt risks this Thursday at 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST . Register now . Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) unexpectedly raised its main policy rate (OPR) today by 25bps (to 3.0%), citing the …
Surprise hike, but no more tightening in 2023 Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) unexpectedly raised its main policy rate today by 25bps (to 3.0%), citing the resilient economy as grounds to “further normalise the degree of monetary accommodation”. However, …
Labour market continues to run red hot New Zealand’s labour market remained extremely tight last quarter, presenting upside risks to our forecast for a 25bp rate hike later this month. The 0.8% q/q rise in employment was stronger than most had …
Tight labour market raises the risk of outsized RBNZ hike The strength of New Zealand’s labour market last quarter poses upside risks to our view that the RBNZ will lift rates by 25bp later this month. The 0.8% q/q rise in employment in Q1 was stronger …
The Reserve Bank of Australia retained its tightening bias when it lifted the cash rate by 25bp at today’s meeting, but we suspect that it won’t raise interest rates any further over the coming months . The Bank’s decision to lift the cash rate from 3.60% …
2nd May 2023
Tightening cycle over but rates will only be lowered in Q2 2024 The Reserve Bank of Australia retained its tightening bias when it lifted the cash rate by 25bp at today’s meeting, but we suspect that it won’t raise interest rates any further over the …
We expect the Fed to deliver a final 25bp hike… (Wed.) …while the ECB will probably raise the deposit rate by 50bp (Thu.) We think US non-farm payrolls rose by a softer 180,000 in April (Fri.) Key Market Themes With Yield Curve Control (YCC) set to stay …
28th April 2023
Although underlying activity growth rebounded in the first quarter, while wage and price inflation remained too high, we expect the second quarter to bring a sharper slowdown across the board. GDP data show weaker start to year The first-quarter GDP …
The Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations suggests it was closer to resuming interest rate hikes in April than we thought. Nonetheless, as the data releases this week showed a fall in the job vacancy rate and point to a contraction in March GDP, it …
The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR), published this week, made it clear that the central bank is increasingly incorporating fiscal risks into its interest rate projections and decision making process. The poor state of the public …
Panic stations in Argentina Developments in Argentina have taken a(nother) turn for the worse over the past couple of weeks. March’s grim inflation print (of 104% y/y) alongside rumours of an imminent devaluation and plans to renegotiate the country’s IMF …
The Bank of England’s Chief Economist, Huw Pill, has come under fire this week after saying that everyone in the UK “needs to accept that they’re worse off and stop trying to maintain their real spending power by bidding up prices whether through higher …
Inflation figures suggest 50bp ECB hike next week still likely National inflation figures released today suggest that euro-zone headline and core inflation edged up in April. That adds to the reasons for the ECB to opt for a 50bp hike at its meeting next …
Credit Suisse’s Q1 results, released this week, revealed the scale of the crisis that led to its demise. The two key pieces of data we learnt were that the bank saw deposit outflows of CHF67bn in the quarter and that, at its peak, it borrowed CHF168bn …
CBR keeps rates on hold, hike still on the table Russia’s central bank maintained its hawkish tone today as it left interest rates unchanged at 7.50% and continued to emphasise pro-inflation risks in the economy. So far these risks do not seem to be …
The Bank of Japan predicted that inflation will fall well below its 2% target in FY2025 when it kept policy settings unchanged today. And while it pledged to conduct a review into its policy measures, the results will only be unveiled next year. The …
RBNZ to relax lending rules On Wednesday, the RBNZ unveiled its proposal to ease Loan-to-Value Ratio (LVR) restrictions on mortgage lending by banks. With house prices now 18% below their January 2022 peak, the RBNZ has judged that threats to financial …
Yield Curve Control here to stay for now The B ank of Japan predicted that inflation will fall well below its 2% target in FY2025 when it kept policy settings unchanged today. And while it pledged to conduct a review into the Bank’s policy measures, the …
Persistent and deepening electricity outages in South Africa are wreaking economic havoc. Almost half of generating capacity was offline this month, triggering severe “loadshedding”. Output in energy-intensive sectors – such as mining and manufacturing – …
27th April 2023
The renminbi surpassed the US dollar to become the most-commonly-used currency in China’s cross-border transactions for the first time last month. Part of the increase – the part that has received plenty of attention – is due to wider adoption of renminbi …
Calm before the storm? Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) left its key policy rate on hold at 8.50% again today, but all eyes are now firmly on next month’s election for a possible change in the stance of monetary policy. Polls are close, but an opposition …
ECB most likely to raise its deposit rate by 50bp next week. Hawks can point to strong activity, high core inflation and tight labour market. We forecast the deposit rate to hit 4% and stay there for over a year. While it is not a done deal, we think the …
We expect the Norges Bank to follow through on its plan to raise its policy rate by 25bp next week, to 3.25%. We have pencilled in a peak of 3.5% in June but the risks are skewed towards it reaching a higher level, particularly if the krone keeps falling …
The replacement of Colombia’s market-friendly finance minister José Antonio Ocampo with a close ally of President Petro is likely to lead to a sell-off in Colombia’s financial assets when markets open later today. This is especially worrying given the …
The raft of inflation data over the past couple of weeks will have provided some relief for Latin American central banks, with headline rates in most countries now on a clear downward trajectory. In Mexico this means that a final rate hike in May now …
26th April 2023
