Filtered by Topic: Monetary Policy Use setting Monetary Policy
We expect GDP growth to slow to only 1.0% this year, as the housing downturn weighs on the domestic economy and exports are held back by the global slowdown. That weakness should prompt the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates in the second half of this …
28th March 2019
A sharp fall in earnings for industrial firms in January and February shows the pressure that weak demand is putting firms’ balance sheets under. We think officials will respond by cutting benchmark lending rates over the weeks ahead. … Weak profits …
27th March 2019
The pick-up in broad money growth to a six-year high in February is not necessarily a positive for the economy because it is a lagging indicator. But it does at least suggest the Fed’s balance sheet run-down, which officials announced will end in …
Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) today dropped its clearest hint yet that interest rate cuts are on the way after it lowered its growth forecasts for this year and pledged that monetary policy would be supportive. In its annual report, BNM cut its GDP growth …
We believe that GDP growth in Australia will fall well below potential this year as the housing downturn bites. That means that unemployment will soon start to rise again and underlying inflation will remain well below the lower end of the Reserve Bank of …
The MPC is likely to use the recent confirmation that GDP growth slowed in Q4 and the current low rate of headline inflation as justification for another interest rate cut at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Thursday 4th April. But with core …
The RBNZ took a surprising dovish turn when it left the official cash rate on hold at 1.75% today, indicating that the next move is likely down. Given that we are more downbeat about the outlook for GDP growth than the Ban, we think the Bank is likely to …
While our GDP growth forecasts are far below consensus, the narrowing and even outright inversion of parts of the yield curve in the past month suggests that investors also have little faith in the consensus view that economic growth will accelerate later …
26th March 2019
Today’s very small interest rate hike in Hungary was the least that policymakers could do to show their commitment to the inflation target. But so long as key euro-zone export markets don’t weaken much further from here, today’s move is unlikely to be the …
Today’s rate cut was another signal that Nigerian policymakers are prioritising monetary stimulus over their own inflation target. We doubt that this cut – which will probably be the first in a cycle – will do much to boost growth. But it will further …
If the past is anything to go by, a fresh round of ECB QE would lead to upward pressure on the Danish krone. We think Denmark’s Nationalbank would react with a combination of FX intervention and rate cuts, which would see it reduce its key policy rate to …
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will welcome the continued tightening of the labour market when it leaves rates unchanged at 1.50% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 2nd April. But we’ve become even more concerned about the outlook for economic activity …
Given the prospects for monetary policy, we forecast that that the rally in government bonds will continue in the US; run out of steam in Germany and Japan; and reverse in the UK if a “no-deal” Brexit is avoided. … Prospects for government bonds remain …
25th March 2019
By making it clear that interest rates will not be raised this year and that quantitative tightening will start to wind down earlier than previously suggested, the Fed was even more dovish this week than most had anticipated. It wasn’t all positive news, …
22nd March 2019
The Central Bank of Russia’s dovish tilt today has prompted us to bring forward some of the interest rate cuts that we had been anticipating in 2020. We now think that the policy rate will be lowered from its current rate of 7.75% to 7.25% by the end of …
This week delivered more data which suggest that the euro-zone economy grew at a meagre pace in Q1. And the Composite PMI is now at a level where the ECB has often loosened monetary policy in the past. … Euro-zone likely to have grown slowly again in …
In a week when the Fed called time on its tightening cycle, and further signs of weakness in euro-zone activity lent extra support to our view that the ECB will ultimately have to do more to ease policy, the Norges Bank stands out as a rare example of a …
The delay granted by the EU last night has pushed back Brexit by at least two weeks, from 29th March to 12th April, but four options remain on the table – deal, no deal, no Brexit or another delay. So it still makes sense to have different scenarios for …
We are now more hawkish than the consensus about the outlook for monetary policy in Norway this year. But we don’t expect the krone to keep strengthening, as we forecast that oil prices will fall. … Monetary policy likely to prevent weaker …
We now believe GDP growth will slow to 1.5% in 2019, which would be well below the analyst consensus of around 2.5%. And we suspect that the recent uptick in the unemployment rate in New South Wales and Victoria will be followed by rising unemployment …
Although investors have become more dovish about the outlook for US monetary policy in the wake of this week’s FOMC meeting, we think that they are underestimating future rate cuts given the grim outlook for the US economy. So in our view, there is more …
21st March 2019
How Brexit pans out will dictate the direction and timing of the next move in interest rates, so it was unsurprising that the Monetary Policy Committee kept a low profile today by voting unanimously to keep rates on hold at 0.75%. But if there is a Brexit …
Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates unchanged at 6.0% at its meeting today, and there was little indication in the statement that it is likely to adjust monetary policy anytime soon. We expect rates to remain on hold throughout this year. … Indonesia: no more …
Today’s decision by the Norges Bank, to raise its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00%, came as no surprise, but policymakers struck a more hawkish tone than expected. While the Bank is now likely to continue its tightening cycle in the second half of this …
Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) decided to keep its policy rate unchanged today at 1.375% against a backdrop of weak economic growth and low inflation, and gave no indication in its statement that it will adjust policy any time soon. With monetary policy …
The central bank of the Philippines (BSP) left rates unchanged today at Governor Diokno’s first meeting, but also sounded more hawkish than we had anticipated. Nevertheless, with inflation set to fall back further over the next couple of months, we are …
The wording of last night’s Brazilian monetary policy statement provides further evidence that the appointment of new governor Roberto Campos Neto won’t cause much of a change to monetary policy. With this in mind, we think the financial market’s current …
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will retain its neutral stance when it keeps rates on hold at its meeting on Wednesday the 27th March 2019. The softening in GDP growth in the second half of 2019 will have come as a disappointment to the Bank. But …
The Fed’s revised economic projections, which now imply no rate hikes this year, together with the announcement that it will halt its balance sheet run-down in September, came as a positive surprise for the markets. But we think the Fed’s forecasts are …
20th March 2019
We expect bonds in the euro-zone’s “periphery”, particularly in Italy, to come under renewed pressure in the rest of 2019 as growth remains weak and political risks creep up. However, we think that credit spreads will tighten again in 2020, as central …
We expect headline inflation to fall further below 2% in the coming months, largely due to a renewed decline in oil prices and an associated fall in energy inflation. The previous strength of economic activity has caused some price pressures to emerge, …
As we expected, weak economic data and a recent pick-up in the króna contributed to the Central Bank of Iceland leaving interest rates on hold today. While it maintained a hawkish bias in its statement accompanying the decision, we now just expect one …
The incoming monthly activity data suggest that GDP growth has slowed from 2.6% annualised in the fourth quarter to only around 1.5% in the first. At the same time, however, the business surveys have remained relatively upbeat, with a weighted average of …
The modest increase in spending detailed in Canada’s 2019 federal budget does little to alter the economic outlook. The onus therefore remains on the Bank of Canada to support the economy. … Budget 2019 won’t drive pick-up in …
With inflation on the up and signs of increasing inflationary pressures in the labour market, we doubt the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will sit on its hands for long after tomorrow’s meeting. If there is a Brexit deal or a short delay, we think that …
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today but sounded decidedly more dovish than at its previous meeting. While weak growth and low inflation will take hikes off the table, the BoT’s continued concern over risks in the financial sector …
We believe that the downturn in the housing market will have a larger negative impact on the economy than most believe and have lowered our GDP forecast for 2019 to 1.5%. The upshot is that the labour market should start to slacken soon, forcing the RBA …
The 3% rise in the rupee against the US dollar so far in March has left it at its strongest rate since August, and means it has outperformed all other major EM currencies this month. This is related in part to recent opinion polls showing that the ruling …
Brazil’s new central bank governor, Roberto Campos Neto, inherits a benign inflation environment and we now think the Selic rate will be left unchanged at its current historic low of 6.5% until at least end-2020. In contrast, the markets are pricing in …
19th March 2019
A decline in mortgage interest rates from the start of 2012 was an important factor behind the rise in house prices in recent years. But we don’t think the upcoming drop in interest rates will have the same impact. Rates are being cut because economic …
The wisdom of the Bank of Japan sticking with an inflation target it can’t reach is being questioned again, including by Japan’s finance minister this week. But all alternatives would be worse. And this would, in any case, be an inopportune time to signal …
15th March 2019
The deluge of data this week provided some mixed signs on economic activity, but one clear theme from the producer and consumer price releases was that what little inflationary pressure there is in the economy already appears to be fading. … Muted …
Pro-IMF comments this week from the front-runner in Ukraine’s presidential election race (and comedian), Volodymyr Zelenskiy, reduce the risk that this month’s vote could trigger an adverse reaction in the currency and bond markets. Meanwhile, Russian …
Data published this week showed continued weakness in South Africa’s economy at the start of the year which, coming alongside soft inflation, may bring interest rate cuts onto the table sooner than we currently anticipate. Elsewhere, the lack of public …
As the Brexit circus rumbles on the Monetary Policy Committee’s interest rate announcement on Thursday 21st March will not receive the usual attention. After all, the Committee will keep a low profile by keeping interest rates at 0.75%. But depending on …
Premier Li spoke to the press at the close of the National People’s Congress (NPC) today. He offered further details on the timing and scale of policy support – smaller than in previous cycles but probably enough to stabilise growth later this year. …
Just over two decades after it first cut rates to zero, the Bank of Japan today left its policy settings unchanged and reiterated that the ultra-loose stance will be maintained for the foreseeable future. While Governor Kuroda sounded relaxed about the …
The rally in EM assets of the past few months has started to falter in recent days on the back of some poor economic data around the world, and signs that a US-China trade deal may be further away than previously thought. We forecast that EM assets will …
14th March 2019
The Norges Bank is all but certain to increase interest rates to 1.0% at its policy meeting next week. In contrast, we expect policymakers in Switzerland and Iceland to leave rates unchanged at their March meetings (also scheduled for next week). The next …
