Filtered by Topic: Monetary Policy Use setting Monetary Policy
Dovish RBNZ As expected, the RBNZ kept the official cash rate on hold at 1.50% this week. But given the Bank’s dovish tone and our downbeat forecasts for New Zealand’s economy, we now think the RBNZ will cut rates twice this year. (See here .) Admittedly, …
28th June 2019
While the performance of the US stock market in the Fed’s last four easing cycles was varied, our view remains that it will fall in the next one, which we expect to span from late-summer 2019 to spring 2020. The S&P 500 soared by nearly 15% in the …
27th June 2019
Following this morning’s decision by the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to cut its key interest rate by 25bps, we now think that further cuts are in the pipeline. However, to the extent that a rumoured fiscal stimulus and a weaker króna help to steady the …
26th June 2019
Recent comments by Mario Draghi suggest that the ECB will loosen policy sooner than we had anticipated. We now expect the Bank to strengthen its forward guidance in July and cut its deposit rate in September. Mr Draghi is then likely to go out with a bang …
The RBNZ’s dovish tone supports our view that the Bank will cut rates again before the year is out. In fact, we now think the Bank will cut at its next meeting in August, and once more at its November meeting. The Bank’s decision to hold rates unchanged …
The People’s Bank has pushed down overnight interbank rates to multi-year lows. This is partly a response to market jitters following the Baoshang Bank takeover and may partially reverse in the coming days. But we think that the broader shift toward …
25th June 2019
The surprise resignation of RBI deputy governor Viral Acharya – one of the most hawkish members of the MPC – boosts the chances of further rate cuts in the near term. But it should once again raise questions over the RBI’s credibility and its …
Ahead of the full budget for FY19/20 on 5th July, the early leaks have focused on potential changes to income taxes. By themselves, these won’t have a material impact on the fiscal position. But they would be indicative of a more accommodative fiscal …
21st June 2019
The RBA seems to be getting more concerned about a slowdown in China’s GDP growth and the recent slowdown in visitor arrivals from China will only exacerbate those worries. Meanwhile, Governor Lowe said that the RBA was unlikely to pursue QE anytime soon. …
Financial markets have come round rapidly in the last few weeks to our view that EM monetary policy will be loosened further this year. But EM loosening cycles have much more to do with weak domestic growth and low inflation than the prospect of interest …
20th June 2019
Although only a minority of Fed officials anticipate that interest rates will need to be cut at all this year and not a single official believes that rates will need to be reduced by more than 50bp in total over the next few years, the markets …
Given the drop in GDP in April and the fall in inflation back to target in May, there was never much chance that the MPC would raise interest rates from 0.75% today. What’s more, the tone of the statement and minutes followed the lead from the Fed and the …
Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left interest rates unchanged today at 1.375%, and is likely to be in little rush to cut interest rates despite the poor outlook for growth. We expect interest rates to be left on hold until at least the end of this year. … …
Amid signs of a recent slowdown in economic growth, the Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates at a third consecutive meeting in early June, taking the repo rate to its lowest since 2010. What’s more, the change in the official policy stance from …
Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 6.0% but the decision to cut the reserve requirement ratio and the dovish shift in the central bank’s rhetoric suggests interest rates are likely to be cut soon. We now expect one 25bp rate cut this …
The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.50% today, but it clearly left the door open to further easing. With inflation likely to fall back further over the coming months and growth set to disappoint, we expect two …
This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to raise its policy rate from 1.00% to 1.25% came as no surprise. But while policymakers left the door open for further rates hikes in 2019, we think there is only room for one more 25bp hike in the current …
The Bank of Japan is showing no signs of shifting to a more dovish stance, despite the impending sales tax hike and moves towards easing by the Fed (and the ECB). As long as there is no sharp downturn after the tax hike in October, it will keep key policy …
The Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB’s) cautious statement from last night’s meeting will disappoint the markets, which had expected Copom to lay the ground for the start of an easing cycle. With the economy probably now in recession and inflation falling, …
GDP growth in Q1 was stronger than the RBNZ had forecast and the Bank will have been encouraged by the government’s stimulatory Budget. As such, the RBNZ is likely to take a ‘wait and see’ approach when it leaves rates on hold on at 1.50% on Wednesday …
The Fed is now leaning towards lower interest rates later this year, but we still believe that the first rate cut will be delayed until September, with another 25bp reduction coming in December and then a final cut in March next year. … Fed breaks new …
19th June 2019
Investors have slashed their expectations for interest rate hikes in Sweden over the coming years and are now broadly in line with our previously well below consensus view. But while we now forecast the ECB to lower rates a little further into negative …
Hopes that much looser monetary policy, particularly in the US, will prevent more weakness in the global economy have supported emerging market (EM) assets recently, but we doubt that this will last. … Monetary easing unlikely to drive a sustained …
Mr Draghi’s speech at the ECB’s conference this morning is the clearest indication yet that the Bank will cut interest rates and relaunch its asset purchase programme in the coming months if, as we expect, measures of inflation and inflation expectations …
18th June 2019
Wage growth has strengthened in several advanced economies despite the global economic slowdown. But, outside the UK, we do not expect this to prevent monetary policy loosening. Strong productivity growth has stopped higher wages stoking inflation in the …
The small interest rate cut that we now forecast by the ECB in December is unlikely to be matched immediately by Denmark’s Nationalbank (DNB). But given that upward pressure on the krone is now likely to build sooner than we previously thought, we expect …
Expectations that the US will soon start to cut interest rates have provided a boost to Asian currencies in recent weeks. But if we are right that slowing growth in the US and the escalating trade war will cause investors to become more risk averse, Asian …
The weakness of the Brazilian economy and rapidly falling inflation mean we now expect an interest rate cut, and we think there is a window of opportunity for Copom to act at next week’s meeting. Elsewhere, the outcome of this week’s political jostling in …
14th June 2019
The Central Bank of Russia’s dovish communications accompanying today’s decision to cut the key rate support our view that more monetary loosening lies in store over the coming quarters. We expect that the one-week repo rate will be lowered to 6.75% by …
The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its monetary policy settings unchanged on Thursday was something of a formality. But whereas some commentators have suggested that the Bank is out of ammunition, we think it is on course to cut interest rates …
The wholesale price index is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers but, even so, the drop in the headline rate in May will be used by the MPC as further justification of its shift to a more dovish policy stance. … Wholesale …
The RBA has moved closer to our view that the natural unemployment may be as low as 4.0%. That means unemployment would need to fall considerably before wage pressures begin to emerge. And we think the unemployment rate is more likely to rise this year …
There isn’t much chance that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise interest rates from 0.75% at its meeting on Thursday 20th June, but we expect the MPC will use the opportunity to repeat their warning from May that the markets are significantly …
13th June 2019
As expected, Swiss policymakers maintained their expansionary monetary policy at their June policy meeting. But the recent shift to a looser bias in the US and the euro-zone only strengthens our view that Swiss rates will be cut further into negative …
The past month has seen a significant change in tone from the world’s major central banks and in expectations of their policies. As fears over trade tensions have mounted and economic data have brought little evidence of the rebound in growth that many …
We expect a further slowdown in economic growth to eventually prompt the Fed to cut interest rates, particularly with underlying inflation muted. But it is hard to see that happening before the September FOMC meeting, even though markets have begun to …
12th June 2019
A looming slowdown in GDP growth and the prospect of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve has prompted speculation that the BoJ will have to ease policy by the end of this year. However, the Bank remains concerned about the impact of low interest rates on …
The Turkish central bank provided further hints at today’s meeting that it is moving towards monetary easing. But policy moves will hinge on the lira and, with a number of flashpoints on the horizon, we think that the scope for rate cuts is limited. … …
Mr Draghi’s comments at the ECB’s press conference last week suggest that the Governing Council is gearing up to loosen monetary policy a bit earlier than we had anticipated. We now think it will shave the deposit rate from -0.4% to -0.5% by year-end, and …
The risk of a recession is arguably higher in Canada than elsewhere and the low level of interest rates limits the ability of the Bank of Canada to respond. Even if the Bank utilises unconventional policy tools, any subsequent recovery would be slow if it …
10th June 2019
We think that the surprise decision by Chilean policymakers to cut the policy interest rate by 50bp on Friday night to 2.50% will prove to be a one off. Interest rates are likely to remain unchanged at their current level until the end of next year. … …
The rise in Russian inflation in late-2018 and early-2019 was driven largely by higher food prices and a VAT hike. To overcome these distortions, we’ve created a measure of ‘underlying’ inflation, which is currently in line with the central bank’s 4% …
Mexico has yet to strike a deal with the US to prevent tariffs being imposed on Monday, but one crumb of comfort is that (so far at least) financial conditions haven’t tightened significantly. Elsewhere, Brazil’s pension reform is nearing the next stage – …
7th June 2019
President Draghi’s comments at this week’s press conference were consistent with our view that the ECB will eventually re-start its QE programme. Meanwhile, Italy looks set for another collision with the EU, which we expect to push bond yields higher. … …
Headline CPI inflation is likely to have remained below the RBI’s 4.0% target in May, which will be used by the central bank as vindication of its change to a more dovish policy stance in yesterday’s policy announcement. But with policy now being loosened …
Our forecast that the housing downturn would weigh on economic activity and force the RBA to cut rates was proven right this week. And given recent data suggest there is considerable spare capacity in the economy, we believe the RBA will have to reduce …
The measures announced by the ECB today were underwhelming, but policymakers have been considering how to respond to any further economic weakness. All the signs are that they would favour more QE. This is consistent with our view that they will re-launch …
6th June 2019
The RBI cut interest rates at a third consecutive meeting today. Arguably more important, it laid the groundwork for continued loosening in the second half of the year. If soft surveys are correct in suggesting that there is limited slack in the economy, …
Some of Australia’s banks have lowered mortgage rates by less than the reduction in the RBA’s cash rate. That’s hard to justify in light of the recent fall in funding costs. We think that mortgage rates will fall by 80bp if the RBA cuts rates to 0.75% as …
5th June 2019
The Fed’s conference this week on monetary policy strategy has put central banks’ frameworks back in the spotlight. But even the more radical options being discussed, such as price level targets, are essentially just tweaks to the existing framework. In …
4th June 2019
