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Q2 returns point to investors becoming increasingly aggressive on pricing All-property total returns strengthened again in Q2, reflecting improvement in all sectors. Industrial returns set a new quarterly record for the sector, while office and retail …
27th July 2021
Consensus more optimistic about industrial and apartments Consensus forecasts for the next two years have been revised upwards, largely driven by a more upbeat view on the industrial sector. As a result, we are now more downbeat than the survey …
19th May 2021
Q1 returns point to upside risk to our forecasts, particularly for industrial All-property total returns rose again in Q1, driven by improvements in all sectors, although retail and hotel returns were again negative. But the industrial sector boom …
27th April 2021
We expect a strong recovery in TV and film-related employment will support office demand in LA over the next five years. Alongside a relatively small development pipeline and low office rents, this means we expect vacancy rises and rental value falls in …
23rd April 2021
Fiscal and monetary stimulus have kept economic growth solid and will support a continued recovery. While this bodes well for occupier demand, structural factors have weighed heavily on the office and retail sectors. That weakness is set to persist this …
18th February 2021
We expect the boost in demand for life science product will support Boston’s office market. At the same time, office-to-lab conversions will limit the impact of a relatively large development pipeline, reducing the downside for Boston in the coming years. …
27th January 2021
Nascent signs of investors returning pose an upside risk to the outlook All-property total returns strengthened in Q4, broadly as we had expected. And the data continued to point to the importance of sector selection to returns. Perhaps the real surprise …
26th January 2021
Leisure and hospitality re-openings were behind the strongest job growth in the Autumn, although national data for December suggest that this could be reversed on the back of renewed lockdowns. With the sector still well short of previous peaks, we think …
22nd January 2021
Commercial property debt to see slow growth in the first quarter Commercial real estate debt growth slowed in December, probably reflecting a softening in investment activity on the back of renewed lockdowns. This points to a similarly slow start to 2021 …
15th January 2021
Many commentators are arguing that firms will shift towards a “hub and spoke” model following the pandemic. But we think the arguments for this approach are not as strong as they first seem, and that other strategies will dominate in the years ahead. The …
12th January 2021
For 2021 we highlight five key calls. In particular we expect a year of two halves in which yields initially rise, but end 2021 close to their current levels. Retail and office rent falls will accelerate and while regional mall returns are expected to be …
6th January 2021
The hotel sector has been hit hardest by the virus, and we expect its recovery will be slower than the other sectors. And, even when vaccines pave the way for an improvement in occupancy, structural changes to demand may limit a return to former glories. …
22nd December 2020
As the country begins to return normal next year, the hardest hit apartment markets in the country will recover. New York City looks particularly well-placed to benefit from returning non-office-based workers. Combined with aggressive rent cuts, which …
16th December 2020
Rise in commercial property debt at risk from new lockdowns Commercial real estate debt growth accelerated in November. However, renewed lockdowns in many states may slow the recovery in investment activity, limiting debt growth in the next few months. …
11th December 2020
Overview – While the news of vaccines provides a fillip to our economic outlook, it does not have a major bearing on our occupier market forecasts. After all, we expect that structural change, rather than cyclical growth, will be the major driver of …
Our upcoming Outlook will detail major upgrades to our capital value expectations. Rather than a total fall of around 10% at the all-property level, we now expect the cumulative decline to be just 5%. In mid-November we published an Update which noted a …
3rd December 2020
News about a vaccine has boosted financial markets and we have revised up our global economic expectations for the next two years or so. But while we think that this bodes well for the medium term, next year is still likely to be tough for most property …
2nd December 2020
Cities with a large tourism sector, such as Las Vegas and Orlando, still employ 10% fewer people than they did in February, which will hurt retail spending and apartment demand. And, while office-using jobs are holding up in tech-led cities, these have …
10th November 2020
The volume of available sublease space already exceeds that seen in the last two downturns. And an average discount of 20% to landlord asking rents, rising to 30%-plus in some cities, will reduce the demand for available landlord space. As a result, while …
4th November 2020
Returns improve in Q3, but significant risks to values ahead All-property total returns moved positive again this quarter, as valuation downgrades reduced markedly. A lack of forced sellers has limited transaction activity and reduced observable evidence, …
27th October 2020
Upgrades to 2020, but consensus more downbeat on 2021-22 Consensus forecasts for this year have been revised upwards, although the outlook for total returns remains negative. At the same time, the prospects for 2021-22 have been downgraded, but only …
14th October 2020
Given uncertainty around the level of adoption of remote-working, change in space allocated per worker and how large any reduction in supply might be, we provide a set of potential scenarios for the change in required office space and the effect on …
24th August 2020
Property valuations improved substantially in Q2, on the back of a huge 120 bps drop in equities earnings yields. However, while the office, retail and apartment sectors look undervalued on our valuation measure, with income streams likely to fall over …
20th August 2020
Returns fall sharply in Q2, with more pain expected in H2 As expected, all-property total returns turned negative in Q2, led lower by sharp markdowns in the retail and hotel sectors. And, while rental values and capital values fell in all sectors last …
27th July 2020
Debt covenants generally look less stretched in this downturn than during the GFC. And, although interest cover ratios are relatively low in some REIT sub-sectors, the short, sharp, fall in capital values that we are forecasting means that it is unlikely …
16th July 2020
CMBS delinquencies have risen sharply in recent months, yet we aren’t expecting a repeat of the real estate debt meltdown witnessed in the GFC. However, non-performing loan rates are especially high in the retail and lodging sectors, meaning that holders …
8th July 2020
Consensus downgrades suggest a more downbeat mood Forecasts for all indicators in 2020 have shown a marked deterioration since the interim year-end 2019 forecast published in January. While the consensus sector ranking is in line with our March forecasts, …
21st May 2020
Commercial real estate returns dip in Q1, but likely to turn negative in Q2 Data for the first quarter show that all-property total returns saw their weakest quarterly performance since the tail-end of the GFC. Given that occupier market conditions have …
28th April 2020
This Focus is a reference guide for clients of our new US Commercial Property service. It outlines the key pillars of our forecasting approach, updating previous methodological work from our established European and UK Property Services. Our five-year …
17th March 2020
We are launching our new subscription service on US commercial real estate by outlining six key calls that we believe will shape the sector’s story in the coming years. The macroeconomic environment of low, but steady economic growth, alongside a …
28th January 2020
With interest rates likely to be structurally lower in the future, prime property yields are unlikely to return to historical levels. As such, we have re-weighted our valuation scores to exclude the comparison with the long-term average property yield. …
9th January 2019
NB. Please download the attached pdf for the full publication with charts. Dire predictions for US shopping centre closures appear relatively well-founded. However, for a variety of reasons – including more defensive lease terms, lower stock per capita …
3rd May 2018
