Filtered by Region: Emerging Markets Use setting Emerging Markets
Stabilisation in July, but strong rebound unlikely in the months ahead July’s industrial production, retail sales and construction figures for Poland showed a stabilisation in activity after the surprise 2.3% q/q fall in GDP in Q2. But we expect the …
22nd August 2022
Turkey doubles down on unorthodoxy The surprise interest rate cut by Turkey’s central bank this week, despite inflation reaching close to 80% y/y in July, threatens to sow the seeds of the next currency crisis. After all, Turkey’s external position is …
19th August 2022
Despite the broad-based rebound over the past month or so, we expect deteriorating risk sentiment to put renewed pressure on most emerging market (EM) currencies before long. This Update zeroes in on which EM currencies are most vulnerable to large falls. …
Disappointing Q2 likely followed by recession Chile’s economy merely stagnated in Q2 and the chances are high that it will fall into recession over the second half of the year. Meanwhile, current account risks are continuing to build – with the deficit …
18th August 2022
Rapid EM growth in the 2000s and early 2010s was a one-off. And headwinds to EMs’ prospects are building: Some EMs may face a permanent loss of output from the coronavirus crisis. US-China decoupling is accelerating. EMs were the big winners from …
27th June 2022
The recent falls in the Turkish lira have led to increased speculation that, with the CBRT showing no sign of willingness to raise interest rates, policymakers will be forced to turn to capital controls to prevent sharp and disorderly moves in the …
16th June 2022
The Turkish lira has come under renewed pressure in recent weeks but interest rate hikes to shore up the currency are off the cards. Instead, further sharp and disorderly falls would most likely be met by formal capital controls and more strident …
19th May 2022
Spillovers from the war in Ukraine are likely to cause Turkey’s current account deficit to widen to more than 4% of GDP this year. In the recent past, deficits of this scale have tended to precede sharp falls in Turkey’s currency. Turkey’s current account …
25th April 2022
The “new economic model” adopted by Turkey’s government is likely to mean low real interest rates and a persistently weak lira, but it will come alongside a shift towards capital controls, ever higher inflation and growing fiscal and banking sector risks. …
18th January 2022
This Update answers some of the most common questions that we have received from clients during Turkey’s recent turmoil. In short, the economic fallout doesn’t look like it will be as bad as it was after the 2018 crisis. However, policymakers look less …
7th December 2021
The history books show that currency crises in other parts of the emerging world in recent decades have resulted in peak-to-trough falls in GDP of around 8% on average and pushed headline inflation up by 25%-pts from its latest trough. The latest crisis …
3rd December 2021
Turkey’s public finances have become more vulnerable to falls in the currency in recent years, although we think the likelihood of sovereign default is very low. Perhaps the bigger risk for the public finances is that the pressure on the central bank to …
25th November 2021
Revisions to the historic data following the recent census show that China’s population barely grew last year and that employment is already contracting faster than previously understood, having peaked in 2014 rather than 2017. The silver-lining, however, …
1st July 2021
After a month-long delay, the key results from China’s once-a-decade census were published today. They weren’t as bad earlier media reports had suggested – the population continued to rise at much the same pace last decade as it did in the 2000s and, if …
11th May 2021
China’s census has revealed the first population decline since the Great Leap Forward, according to the FT. If this is confirmed and the beginning of a trend, China’s challenge in sustaining rapid long-run economic growth has become even harder. While …
27th April 2021
Our long-run forecasts suggest that China will still be the second largest economy, measured at market exchange rates, in 2050. The most likely scenario is that slowing productivity growth and a shrinking workforce prevent China ever passing the US. But …
18th February 2021
China has had a stellar run during the past few decades, achieving sustained rates of growth only ever previously seen in a handful of emerging economies. Most major forecasters expect this outperformance to continue for the foreseeable future. By …
14th May 2018
Saudi Arabia’s new bankruptcy law, which was approved by King Salman last month, will make it easier to deal with the fallout from corporate failures and, through improving access to credit, support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises …
1st March 2018
