In a surprise move, Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today raised its main policy rate by 12.5bps (to 1.875%), but with the economy struggling badly and inflationary pressures set to ease further, we think this was the last hike of the tightening cycle. The …
23rd March 2023
The Norges Bank’s 25bp rate hike today was accompanied by new verbal guidance that it is likely to raise rates further in May. Together with the new, higher interest rate forecast, this supports our view that the policy rate will peak at 3.5% and stay …
The central bank of the Philippines (BSP) today slowed the pace of tightening as it raised its main policy rate by 25bps (to 6.25%), and hinted that the tightening cycle was now approaching an end. Although inflation has now started to fall, it remains …
The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s decision to keep the Selic rate unchanged at 13.75% yesterday will have disappointed some (not least in the government) that thought global market turmoil and economic weakness might prompt a quicker …
The 25bp rate hike and new projections unveiled by the Fed today were towards the more dovish end of potential outcomes. Despite recent strong economic data, officials acknowledged the likely hit from the banking sector turmoil and left their end-year …
22nd March 2023
US natural gas prices have plummeted recently amid subdued demand and elevated stocks. However, demand is expected to revive this year and next, which will put upward pressure on prices. The price of US gas (Henry Hub) has collapsed from a peak of $9.7 …
Even if the banking sector turmoil doesn’t grow into a broader economic crisis, we still think equities in emerging markets (EMs) will struggle over the next couple of quarters in local-currency (LC) terms. Since confidence in the financial sector started …
Turkey’s banking sector has been one of the weak links in the EM world in recent years due to its very high external debt burden. The good news is that banks have paid down these external debts and built up their FX liquidity buffers since 2018. This has …
Although recent strains in the banking sector mean that the economic outlook is especially uncertain, in our view equities are unlikely to perform particularly well, regardless of how things play out. It goes without saying that, over the past year or so, …
The UK commercial real estate (CRE) debt market seems to be in a better position than the US, where troubled regional banks were the main providers of finance. That said, credit conditions are also set to tighten in the UK which will make refinancing more …
While real estate is not the main cause of the current financial turbulence, as it was in the late 2000s, it has played an indirect role and may be implicated in any further instability. And property will also be vulnerable to the effects of recent …
21st March 2023
Spillovers from the global banking crisis to EMs appear limited so far. Encouragingly, too, most EM banks appear to be well placed to weather a period of rising non-performing loans resulting from weaker growth and higher interest rates. That said, there …
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) raised the benchmark rate by 50bp, to 18.00%, and appeared to lay the groundwork to draw the tightening cycle to a close. The CBN’s decision to raise the benchmark rate by 50bp, to 18.00%, today follows 600bp of …
The deal announced yesterday between Sri Lanka and the IMF should eventually pave the way for a sustained economic recovery. However, the tough conditions being imposed as part of the agreement mean the country faces another difficult year ahead. …
With bond yields now dropping back again, the drag from unrealised losses on banks’ capital ratios should start to reverse. However, a sharp increase in losses on banks’ foreign loan portfolio has yet to materialise. While our view that major advanced …
In ordinary times, today’s launch of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) sixth synthesis report in Interlaken would have been the most high-profile news event to emerge from Switzerland. As it happens, amid the drama of the Credit …
20th March 2023
EMs, in general, don’t appear to have suffered large capital outflows over the past 10 days or so amid the turmoil in the global banking sector. But some countries with large current account deficits (Chile, Colombia, Hungary) have seen their currencies …
While the Credit Suisse rescue might draw a line under that particular institution’s problems, it is clear that confidence in the financial sector overall is still extremely fragile. So regardless of whether more financial institutions run into trouble, …
While commodity prices have also been caught up in the chaos stemming from the banking sector turmoil, so far the impact hasn’t been too alarming as price falls for most commodities haven’t been overly large. Where those falls have been greatest, such as …
17th March 2023
While the backdrop has shifted dramatically, we still think there’s a strong case for our existing forecasts of a further rally in long-dated bonds by the end of the year, and some near-term strength in the US dollar and weakness in equities. The Swiss …
The People’s Bank (PBOC) has just announced a cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR). This will provide a bit of financial relief for China’s large and medium-sized banks. It may also help nudge down lending rates slightly. But given the wider signs of …
The ghosts of 2008 have made a sudden reappearance. Many metrics of core market functioning have worsened worryingly fast, but the overall situation is still long way short of the type of strains seen during the worst parts of the Global Financial …
16th March 2023
Commodity prices have tumbled as concern about a banking crisis has grown. The downside risks to our forecasts, which we recently attributed to higher interest rates, now include banking sector stress. There has been a renewed fall in commodity prices …
The direct impact on real estate of the collapse of two US regional banks over the weekend is likely to be relatively small. But we expect lending criteria to become more cautious in the short-term, which will weigh on the supply of real estate debt. …
Investors have taken today’s 50bp rate hike by the ECB as dovish, and the peak deposit rate now priced into markets is between 3% and 3.25%. We think the risks are skewed towards rates going higher than this and the economy performing much worse than …
We have already outlined some different scenarios of how things might evolve from here and it is still possible that the situation calms down quickly. But in this Update , we think through how the more adverse of our scenarios might evolve. There are …
A key channel through which emerging markets could be affected by the strains in the global banking sector is if lending by foreign banks falls sharply. On this front, EMs’ vulnerabilities have eased since the Global Financial Crisis. But there are still …
Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates unchanged (at 5.75%), and signalled that with inflation falling back more quickly than expected, rates would be left on hold over the coming months. In the event that the rupiah comes under sustained …
Tentative signs of stabilisation, but risks abound House prices fell at a slower pace in February and the sharp improvement in the sales-to-new listing ratio offers some hope that they will soon stabilise. While the turmoil in the global banking sector …
15th March 2023
A preferential rate to facilitate wine exports is the latest addition to Argentina’s myriad exchange rates, but it doesn’t address the fundamental problem that the peso is overvalued. We estimate that the currency needs to fall by around 30% to restore …
Even as the economy has slowed nominal all-property rental growth has held up relatively well. But that largely reflects the impact of high inflation, which is now falling. In any event, underlying supply and demand conditions are ultimately the more …
Vietnam’s central bank unexpectedly lowered interest rates late yesterday as it aims to support the struggling economy which has been hit hard by the downturn in global demand and problems in the property sector. We think the central bank will tread …
This year’s Shunto should result in the strongest negotiated pay hikes in decades. But the average Japanese employee will have little to rejoice in. Weaker corporate profits as well as a likely loosening of labour market conditions on account of a …
The Canadian banking sector is heavily concentrated, reducing the risk that deposit runs at small lenders might trigger a broader crisis of confidence for the entire sector. As things stand, the chance of the Bank of Canada soon cutting interest rates – …
14th March 2023
At the time of writing, financial markets appear to be stabilising after the turmoil caused by the collapse of SVB. And it doesn’t look like EMs have suffered large capital outflows or strains in their banking sectors. If this relatively benign scenario …
Given the large amount of uncertainty about how the fallout from SVB’s collapse will evolve, we have grouped possible outcomes into three broadbrush scenarios. Only in the worst scenario of financial problems spreading overseas will the global effects …
This checklist helps clients keep track of the key forecasts announced during the Spring Budget at 12.30pm (GMT) on Wednesday 15 th March. Our more detailed preview is here . We will send a Rapid Response shortly after the speech, we are hosting a “Drop …
Australian banks are unlikely to experience the same valuation losses that resulted in the demise of Silicon Valley Bank. The biggest risk is that a freezing up of overseas bond markets shuts down funding avenues for the major banks, but the Reserve Bank …
Even if the collapse of several mid-tier banks doesn’t develop into a full-blown systemic crisis, it will more than likely trigger a credit crunch. That raises the risk that the economy will suffer a harder landing, which would accelerate the needed …
13th March 2023
The restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran adds to signs that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are easing, which may help to reduce risk premia in financial assets in the region as well as the oil market. Tensions will not …
This Global Economics Update answers 5 key questions about the fallout from SVB’s collapse. While the situation remains in flux, there are good reasons to think that it does not call into question the solvency of the US or wider global financial system …
The circumstances of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse are unique enough that it probably won’t trigger a widespread financial contagion. Nevertheless, it is a timely reminder that when the Fed is singularly focused on squeezing inflation by jacking …
10th March 2023
Failed dockworker union negotiations on the West Coast have led to further diversion of US imports toward the East and Gulf Coasts, supporting warehousing demand in those markets for longer than expected. We expect a degree of this demand to persist into …
There were some surprises in the Q4 commercial real estate data from the euro-zone, in particular in how swiftly yields have risen. Taken together with changes to our economic view these imply further downgrades to our forecasts. Notably we now think that …
The Bank of Japan didn’t make any policy changes at Governor Kuroda’s last meeting today but we expect incoming Governor Ueda to abandon Yield Curve Control in April . While that decision was widely anticipated, we were among the few who predicted the …
The South African rand has weakened sharply against the US dollar so far this year, markedly underperforming other emerging market (EM) currencies. We expect domestic and global headwinds to drive a bit more depreciation, to 19.0/$, later this year. But …
9th March 2023
The Fed is clearly trying to avoid a premature easing in financial conditions and a repeat of 1970s-style “stop-go” monetary policy. This Update discusses some lessons from that period for equity markets today. Equities have struggled over this week, …
The US may not have a monarchy, but cash has arguably become its proverbial king of investments. If history is a guide, it is a reign that is likely to feature equities underperforming bonds amid a recession. Last November, the yield of a 3-month Treasury …
The Italian industrial market saw its sharpest fall in capital values on record last year, owing to a surge in yields in Q4. But with valuations still stretched and investor demand weakening, we think yields will climb higher. And with rent growth …
We expect industrial completions to exceed 3.5% of inventory this year, despite the first quarterly drop in space under construction in Q4 for over two years. But new starts are already slowing and with higher interest rates, elevated construction costs …
