US headline CPI likely to have jumped above 2% in March (13.30 BST) We think that the UK economy grew by 0.5% m/m in February (07.00 BST) Strong foreign demand probably continued to boost China’s exports last month Key Market Themes Although the euro has …
12th April 2021
US retail sales & industrial production probably surged last month (Wed.) We think that Turkey’s central bank will cut rates by 200bp, to 17.00% (Thu.) Read our highest convictions macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes The …
9th April 2021
Energy price effects may have boosted inflation in China, Brazil and Sweden last month We think that Germany’s industrial production rose strongly in April (07.00 BST) Canada’s employment probably grew in March, but is unlikely to do so this month (13.30 …
8th April 2021
Minutes from the Fed’s March meeting could reveal strength of the dovish consensus Sweden’s activity data likely to have held up reasonably well in February (08.30 BST) Energy base effects probably drove a sharp rise in Mexico’s inflation last month …
7th April 2021
PMIs in Spain and Italy probably rose in March We think the US trade deficit widened in February (13.30 BST) FOMC minutes may provide some indication of how strong dovish consensus is (19.00 BST) Key Market Themes While any changes to the US tax code may …
6th April 2021
We expect US non-farm payroll to have increased by 700,000 in March (Fri. 2 nd April) Fed and ECB minutes may shed more light on the central banks’ latest thinking (Wed. & Thu.) We think central banks in India and Poland will keep their policy rates on …
1st April 2021
Euro-zone inflation probably increased in March and is likely to keep rising (10.00 BST) We expect the ADP employment report to point to a 700,000 gain in US non-farm payrolls US President Biden to unveil plans for a major infrastructure spending package …
30th March 2021
Japan’s unemployment rate probably stayed low in February (00.30 BST) Euro-zone economic sentiment may have improved this month (10.00 BST) Join us for a Drop-In on the Swiss franc on Tuesday (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes We expect a further divergence in …
29th March 2021
High frequency data point to an upturn in UK retail sales volumes in February (07.00 GMT) We expect Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index to have risen in March (09.00 GMT) US real consumption likely to have fallen temporarily last month (12.30 GMT) Key …
25th March 2021
Philippines’ central bank unlikely to cut rates despite economic weakness (08.00 GMT) We think that inflation in Brazil rose sharply earlier this month (12.00 GMT) Falling inflation in South Africa probably rules out a rate hike this week (13.00 GMT) Key …
24th March 2021
We think that UK consumer price inflation nudged up in February (07.00 GMT) Euro-zone composite PMI likely to have declined slightly (09.00 GMT) Severe weather probably weighed on US durable goods orders last month (12.30 GMT) Key Market Themes It is a …
23rd March 2021
We think that the UK’s unemployment rate held roughly steady in January (07.00 GMT) Hungary’s central bank not likely to tighten, despite above-target inflation (13.00 GMT) Key Fed speakers will probably reiterate Powell’s dovish line Key Market Themes …
22nd March 2021
Unlike Brazil, Turkey & Russia, we think most other EM central banks will put off hiking We think flash PMIs in the UK and the euro-zone will point to activity remaining subdued The fall in US personal income & spending in Feb. will probably be reversed …
19th March 2021
The BoJ may tweak some of its policy settings, including its yield curve target tolerance band UK government borrowing is likely to have remained high in February (07.00 GMT) We expect Russia’s central bank to keep its policy rate on hold at 4.25% (10.30 …
18th March 2021
Fed’s Powell likely to reiterate dovish message (18.00 GMT, Wed.) We expect Turkey’s central bank to hike its one week repo rate by 100bp (11.00 GMT, Thu.) BoE could emphasise dovish rates guidance, but not likely to up QE buying (12.00 GMT, Thu.) Key …
17th March 2021
Headline inflation in Canada likely edged up in February (12.30 GMT) We think the Fed will reaffirm its intention to keep policy accommodative (18.00 GMT) We expect that Brazil’s central bank will start tightening policy with a 50 bp hike (21.00 GMT) Key …
16th March 2021
Severe weather probably weighed on US retail sales in February… (12.30 GMT) … but industrial production may have held up slightly better (13.15 GMT) Fed, BoJ and BoE meetings this week may shed more light on their thinking about rise in yields Key Market …
15th March 2021
We expect the Fed to reiterate that policy tightening is still far away (Wed.) Central banks in Brazil and Turkey look likely to hike their policy rates (Wed. & Thu.) US industrial production and retail sales growth probably weakened in February (Tue.) …
12th March 2021
UK economy is likely to have contracted by 3% m/m in March (07.00 GMT) We think that euro-zone industrial production grew by 0.7% m/m in January (10.00 GMT) US consumer confidence probably rose in early March (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The ECB ’s …
11th March 2021
US House of Representatives set to give final approval to Biden’s stimulus package later today We think inflation in Brazil rose in February, pointing to a rate hike next week (12.00 GMT) The ECB’s policy meeting likely to focus on how it responds to …
10th March 2021
Risks to Brazil’s sovereign bond market building Bank of Canada likely to reiterate commitment to keep policy loose for a long time We think that consumer price inflation picked up in the US, but remained subdued in China Key Market Themes We doubt the …
9th March 2021
The US Senate is likely to pass President Biden’s $1.9 fiscal stimulus over the next few days We think credit growth in China softened, consistent with activity slowing later in 2021 (Sun.) The BoE and ECB will probably respond to higher yields with …
5th March 2021
We expect US non-farm payrolls to have risen by 500,000 in February (13.30 GMT) China’s government to present budget as National People’s Congress kicks off Read our highest-conviction macroeconomic and financial market forecasts here Key Market Themes We …
4th March 2021
Virus restrictions probably weighed on euro-zone retail sales in January (10.00 GMT) We expect Malaysia’s central bank to cut its policy rate by 25bp (07.00 GMT) View our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes …
3rd March 2021
UK Budget likely to focus on further economic support, not tax hikes (12.30 GMT) US ISM services index probably edged up in February (15.00 GMT) We expect the central bank of Poland to cut its policy rate by 10bp, to 0.00% Key Market Themes While the …
2nd March 2021
The RBA may push back against expectations of policy tightening at its meeting (03.30 GMT) We think euro-zone inflation picked up in February (10.00 GMT) Canadian GDP probably continued to grow in December despite lockdowns (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes …
1st March 2021
The US ISM Manufacturing Index probably remained strong in February (Mon.) The UK Budget is likely to focus on extending support rather than deficit reduction (Wed.) We think that US non-farm payrolls rose by 500,000 in February (Fri.) Key Market Themes …
26th February 2021
India’s economy was probably around 1% smaller than a year earlier in Q4 (12.00 GMT) We think that US personal income and spending surged in January (13.30 GMT) View our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes …
25th February 2021
We think the RBNZ will not cut rates tomorrow, and that its easing cycle is over (01.00 GMT) Inflation probably rose in Brazil and Mexico in the first half of February Read our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market …
23rd February 2021
Johnson to set out how COVID-19 restrictions in the UK will be eased (Mon.) South Africa’s government not likely to announce end of austerity in budget speech (Wed.) Biden could unveil further details of fiscal plans at State of the Union Address (Wed.) …
19th February 2021
Retail sales in the UK probably edged down in January due to virus restrictions (07.00 GMT) Euro-zone flash PMIs likely to show manufacturing activity remains resilient… (09.00 GMT) …while flash PMIs in the US are likely to point to a strong recovery …
18th February 2021
We expect Bank Indonesia to cut its policy rate by a further 25bp… (07.20 GMT) …but the rally in the lira may convince Turkey’s central bank to stand pat (11.00 GMT) Euro-zone consumer confidence probably remained in the doldrums in February (15.00 GMT) …
17th February 2021
Fed minutes likely to confirm that policy tightening remains some way off (19.00 GMT) We expect US retail sales to have risen by 1.2% m/m in January (13.30 GMT) We think UK headline inflation edged down to 0.5% in January (07.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The …
16th February 2021
We expect euro-zone and UK February flash PMIs to show activity remains subdued… (Mon.) … while euro-zone GDP probably contracted in Q4 (Tue.) FOMC and ECB minutes will shed further light on policymakers’ views next week Key Market Themes Although central …
12th February 2021
The UK probably avoided a contraction in GDP in Q4 despite the lockdowns … (07.00 GMT) … while lockdowns likely deepened Poland’s contraction in GDP last quarter (09.00 GMT) We expect consumer confidence in the US edged up as virus cases receded (15.00 …
11th February 2021
Powell likely to emphasise the Fed is still a long way from withdrawing support We think that Mexico’s central bank will cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.0% (Thu,19.00 GMT) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts, and their market implications here …
10th February 2021
We think US headline inflation edged up to 1.5% in January (13.30 GMT) We expect the Riksbank to keep its policy settings unchanged (08.30 GMT) Read our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes The MSCI World …
9th February 2021
Progress on a US fiscal stimulus package is likely to be slowed by the impeachment trial We think that headline inflation in Brazil and Mexico rose last month Read our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes The …
8th February 2021
US headline inflation probably edged up from 1.4% to 1.5% in January (Wed.) We expect the central bank of Mexico to cut its policy rate by 25bp to 4.00% (Thu.) In contrast, we think the central bank of Russia will keep its policy rate at 4.25% (Fri.) Key …
5th February 2021
We expect the RBI to cut its policy rate in response to lower headline inflation (06.15 GMT) US employment probably changed little in January, but risks lie to the upside (13.30 GMT) We think the US trade deficit narrowed last month as exports recovered …
4th February 2021
We think both the Bank of England and the Czech National Bank will leave policy unchanged Euro-zone retail sales probably rose in December (10.00 GMT) You can check our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes A …
3rd February 2021
Euro-zone CPI inflation probably rose in January (10.00 GMT) We think virus-related restrictions weighed on US employment last month… (13.15 GMT) … but that the ISM services index will point to a continued recovery in activity (15.00 GMT) Key Market …
2nd February 2021
RBA likely to revise up its forecasts for GDP and inflation (03.30 GMT) We think euro-zone GDP fell by 1%q/q in the fourth quarter of 2020 (10.00 GMT) Track the latest developments on the pandemic, including vaccine progress, here Key Market Themes Indian …
1st February 2021
January PMIs are likely to point to a slow start to the year in the euro-zone … (Mon.) … while economies in the US, Canada, and the Nordics remained more resilient (Mon.) We expect US non-farm payrolls to show that the virus is still weighing on the …
29th January 2021
The French, Spanish, Austrian and Belgian economies probably all contracted in Q4… … however, we estimate that Germany’s economy grew by 0.5% q/q (07.00 GMT) We think US personal spending fell last month, but incomes probably picked up (13.30 GMT) Key …
28th January 2021
We expect the FOMC to reiterate its commitment to accommodative policy today Economic sentiment may have deteriorated in Europe in January (10:00 GMT) US GDP growth probably slowed in Q4 (13:30 GMT) Key Market Themes It seems very unlikely that the FOMC …
27th January 2021
Fed Chair Powell may push back against talk of normalising policy any time soon (19.00 GMT) We expect Chile’s central bank to keep its policy rate on hold (21.00 GMT) Fresh elections in Italy now appears less likely Key Market Themes One of the salient …
26th January 2021
We think that the UK’s unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in November (07.00 GMT) We expect central banks in Hungary and Nigeria to leave interest rates on hold Track the latest developments on the pandemic, including vaccine progress, here Key Market Themes …
25th January 2021
We expect Fed Chair Powell to push back on talk of tapering at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting Survey data will probably point to the euro-zone economy struggling in January Central banks in Hungary, Chile and Colombia all likely to keep rates on hold Key Market …
22nd January 2021
UK public finances data will probably show a rising deficit for December (07.00 GMT) We expect restrictions continued to weigh on euro-zone and UK flash PMIs (09.00 GMT) Similarly, US flash PMIs will provide a gauge for how the recovery there is faring …
21st January 2021
