Speeches from Fed officials could give details on what drove hawkish shift in rate projections Australia’s retail sales probably fell by around 2.5% m/m in August (02.30 BST) Read our new CE Spotlight series for an in-depth look at the global inflation …
27th September 2021
US House of Representatives may vote on bipartisan infrastructure bill Lengthy coalition negotiations likely to follow German elections (Sunday) We think the US ISM manufacturing index dropped back in September (Friday) Key Market Themes We expect the …
24th September 2021
We expect Germany’s Ifo index to have declined again in September (09.00 BST) Brazil’s inflation probably rose to around 10% in the first half of September (13.00 BST) Read our latest reports on Evergrande’s collapse and its macro & market implications …
23rd September 2021
The FOMC’s latest “dot plot” is likely to be the focus of today’s announcement We expect Norges Bank to be the first G10 central bank to hike rates … (09.00 BST) … and the Bank of England to keep rates and asset purchases unchanged (12.00 BST) Key Market …
22nd September 2021
Probably too soon for a Fed tapering announcement (19.00 BST) China’s loan prime rate (LPR) likely to be steady for now, but to fall before long (02.30 BST) We expect Brazil’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 100bp (22.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
21st September 2021
We think that UK public sector net borrowing remained elevated in August (07.00 BST) Policymakers in Sweden look likely to leave rates on hold … (08.30 BST) … but we expect Hungary’s central bank to hike its policy rate by another 30bp (13.00 BST) Key …
20th September 2021
Probably too soon for the Fed to announce tapering; new 2024 rate projections due (Wed.) Brazil’s central bank likely to raise its policy rate by a further 100bp (Wed.) We think Norway’s central bank will begin its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike (Thu.) …
17th September 2021
We think that UK retail sales rebounded last month (07.00 BST) US consumer confidence probably remained subdued during September (15.00 BST) See our latest research on inflation from the CE Spotlight series here Key Market Themes Although we doubt the …
16th September 2021
We think lockdowns weighed on employment in Australia in August (01.30 BST) US retail sales probably fell again last month (13.30 BST) See our latest top-line forecasts across economies and markets here Key Market Themes The renewed rise in consumer price …
15th September 2021
The UK unemployment rate probably declined in July … … but the annual pace of earnings growth is likely to have dropped too (07.00 BST) We forecast that US core inflation fell from 4.3% in July to 4.1% in August (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Despite …
13th September 2021
We expect a smaller rise in US core consumer prices in August (Tuesday)… …but think that inflation rose sharply in the UK last month (Wednesday) China’s activity data may suggest that its economy is losing further momentum (Wednesday) Key Market Themes …
10th September 2021
We think the UK economy lost some momentum in July (07.00 BST) We expect Russia’s central bank to hike by 50bp at its meeting on Friday (11.30 BST) US producer prices for August may show further inflationary pressure (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The ECB …
9th September 2021
We think that factory-gate inflation in China reached a new high in August (02.30 BST) The ECB is likely to prepare the ground for tapering its emergency asset purchases (12.45 BST) Inflation last month probably remained above central bank targets in both …
8th September 2021
We think CPI inflation in China held broadly steady at around 1% last month (02.30 BST) We expect the Bank of Canada to leave its policy settings unchanged (15.00 BST) Inflation in Russia probably rose further above the central bank’s target in August …
7th September 2021
We think that the RBA will press ahead with tapering its asset purchases (04.30 BST) Supply bottlenecks probably continued to weigh on German industrial production (07.00 BST) We think South Africa’s economy barely expanded in Q2 (10.30 BST) Key Market …
6th September 2021
Weaker demand probably weighed on China’s trade in August (Tue.) Inflation probably remained above target in Brazil, Mexico, Chile & Colombia in August We think the ECB will decide to scale back its emergency asset purchases next week (Thu.) Key Market …
3rd September 2021
We doubt that a further fall in Turkey’s inflation will prompt rate cuts quite yet (08.00 BST) Euro-zone retail sales probably dipped in July (10.00 BST) We expect a 750,000 rise in US non-farm payrolls in August (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Although …
2nd September 2021
We expect the US ISM Manufacturing Index fell further in August (15.00 BST) Euro-zone unemployment probably ticked down in July (10.00 BST) We think that Brazil’s GDP growth slowed to 0.2% q/q in Q2 (08.00 BST) Key Market Themes While we think that …
31st August 2021
Sweden’s GDP growth probably increased last quarter (08.30 BST) US real consumption likely to have fallen back in July (13.30 BST) Powell due to speak at virtual Jackson Hole conference (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes The S&P 500 remains within a whisker of …
26th August 2021
We expect the Bank of Korea to start tightening, despite recent virus wave Account of ECB’s July meeting may shed more light on changes to its forward guidance Further rise in Brazil’s inflation probably paves the way for another big rate hike next month …
25th August 2021
We think that inflation in Brazil rose further in the first half of this month (13.00 BST) We expect US core durable goods orders increased again last month (13.30 BST) Industrial production growth in Russia probably remained elevated in July (17.00 BST) …
24th August 2021
Mexico’s inflation probably remained well above target in the first half of August (12.00 BST) We expect a 30bp rate hike from Hungary’s central bank (13.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macroeconomic forecasts and their market implications here Key …
23rd August 2021
US durable goods orders probably saw another decent rise in July (Wed.) The account of July’s ECB meeting may reveal views on changes to forward guidance (Thu.) We don’t expect a definitive statement on tapering from the Fed’s Powell at Jackson Hole …
20th August 2021
We expect China’s central bank to leave its benchmark rate on hold for now (02.00 BST) We think retail sales growth in the UK fell back in July... (07.00 BST) ... but it probably rebounded strongly in Canada in June (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The muted …
19th August 2021
We think employment in Australia fell last month due to lockdowns (02.30 BST) We expect Norway’s central bank to leave policy unchanged until next month (09.00 BST) Housing price gains in Canada probably accelerated in July (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes …
18th August 2021
We expect policymakers in New Zealand to hike rates by 25bp (03.00 BST) We think that inflation in the UK fell back a bit last month (07.00 BST) FOMC minutes from July could provide more details on tapering discussions (14.00 BST) Key Market Themes We …
17th August 2021
US retail sales for July likely to be consistent with slower Q3 consumption growth (13.30 BST) We expect that Euro-zone employment growth picked up in Q2 (10.00 BST) In the UK, underlying wage pressures probably remained subdued in June (07.00 BST) Key …
16th August 2021
Euro-zone employment probably rebounded in Q2 (Tue.) FOMC minutes may provide some clarity on the central bank’s plans for tapering (Wed.) We expect the RBNZ to surprise with a 50bp hike (Wed.) Key Market Themes In our view, most ‘ risky’ assets are …
13th August 2021
We expect Mexico’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp later today (19.00 BST) Sweden’s core inflation was probably very weak in July (08.30 BST) Virus concerns likely to have weighed on US consumer confidence in August (15.00 BST) Key Market …
12th August 2021
US headline and core consumer prices probably rose at a slower pace last month (13.30 BST) US Senate on the cusp of passing the bipartisan infrastructure package Brazil’s tightening cycle probably has much further to go, as inflation hits 9% Key Market …
10th August 2021
We think that core inflation fell further below target in Norway in July (07.00 BST) Headline inflation in Brazil probably rose again, to nearly 9% (13.00 BST) US Senate moving closer to passing bipartisan infrastructure package Key Market Themes Our …
9th August 2021
US July CPI data likely to point to another strong monthly rise in prices (Wednesday) China’s headline inflation probably eased further last month (Monday) We expect the central bank of Mexico to hike its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.5% (Thursday) Key Market …
6th August 2021
We expect US non-farm payrolls to have risen by about 650,000 in July (13.30 BST) We think Germany’s industrial production rose by 2% m/m in June (07.00 BST) Wage growth in Japan probably edged up to around 2% in June (08.30 BST) Key Market Themes The …
5th August 2021
The Bank of England is likely to keep policy unchanged at its upcoming meeting… (12.00 BST) … but we expect central banks in Brazil and Czechia to hike rates We think inflation rose further in Russia (17.00 BST) Key Market Themes The share prices of most …
4th August 2021
US ADP report will give first clues about the health of the labour market in July (13.15 BST) We expect Brazil’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 100bp, to 5.25% (22.30 BST) Euro-zone retail sales probably rose by around 2% m/m in June (10.00 BST) …
3rd August 2021
We expect the RBA to push back tapering its asset purchases to November (04.30 BST) We forecast that headline inflation in Turkey rose to 19% y/y in July (08.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macroeconomic forecasts and their market implications here …
2nd August 2021
We think that US non-farm payrolls rose by about 650,000 in July (Friday) Early end to the BoE’s assets purchases looks unlikely (Thursday) RBA may delay the tapering of its asset purchases in light of recent lockdowns (Tuesday) Key Market Themes Although …
30th July 2021
We think that inflation edged up in the euro-zone last month … (10.00 BST) … while Q2 GDP data are likely to show that the recovery there accelerated (10.00 BST) Personal spending in the US probably rose in June even as income dropped back (13.30 BST) Key …
29th July 2021
Sweden’s GDP likely to have risen back above pre-pandemic level (08.30 BST) We think the euro-zone’s ESI rose to a 22-year high this month (10.00 BST) US GDP growth probably accelerated in Q2, but Q3 looks less promising (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The …
28th July 2021
Fed unlikely to be ready to issue tapering guidance (19.00 BST) Canada’s headline inflation probably fell from 3.6% to about 3.2% in June (13.30 BST) We are now anticipating a faster tightening cycle in Hungary Key Market Themes Although equity indices in …
27th July 2021
We think UK retail sales fell further in May as consumption shifted to services (07.00 BST) Markit PMIs for the euro-zone are likely to indicate a continued expansion in July (09.00 BST) Russia’s central bank is likely to raise its policy rate by 100bp …
22nd July 2021
We think central banks in Indonesia and South Africa will leave policy on hold tomorrow Inflation in Mexico probably remained high in the first half of July (12.00 BST) The ECB will probably amend its policy statement to account for its new target (12.45 …
21st July 2021
UK government borrowing probably undershot the OBR’s forecast in June (07.00 BST) We think Korea’s exports levelled off in the first 20 days of June (00.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their implication here Key Market Themes We …
20th July 2021
Inflation in Japan may have turned positive in June (00.30 BST) China’s benchmark loan prime rate unlikely to change despite RRR cut (02.30 BST) US housing starts probably rebounded in June (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes In recent weeks, it has often …
19th July 2021
ECB unlikely to change policy settings, but may amend forward guidance (Thu.) We expect Russia’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 100bp (Thu.) Flash composite PMIs probably rose in the euro-zone, but fell in the UK, this month (Fri.) Key Market …
16th July 2021
We expect a 25bp policy rate hike in Chile later on Wednesday (23.00 BST) We think that activity data will point to a further slowdown in China’s economy (03.00 BST) Supply constraints may have caused US manufacturing output to fall in May (14.15 BST) Key …
14th July 2021
New Zealand’s central bank is likely to strike a hawkish tone (02.00 BST) UK headline inflation probably edged up last month (07.00 BST) We think that the Bank of Canada will taper its asset purchases further (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes While the …
13th July 2021
We think that US core CPI inflation rose above 4% last month (13.30 BST) China’s June trade data should show how much disruption port closures caused Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes The …
12th July 2021
ECB announces revamp of its policy framework, including new inflation target China’s June inflation data may point to easing price pressures (02.30 BST) UK GDP probably grew strongly in May as COVID-19 restrictions lifted (07.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
8th July 2021
We expect Poland’s central bank to stay on hold but revise up its forecast for GDP and inflation Inflation probably remained unchanged in Mexico last month (12.00 BST) … … while inflation is likely to have edged up in Brazil and Chile (13.00 BST) Key …
7th July 2021
