We estimate that US headline inflation reached 7.7% last month (13.30 GMT) Lagarde will probably try to strike a reassuring tone after tomorrow’s ECB meeting Korea’s presidential election too close to call ahead of final results tomorrow morning Key …
9th March 2022
Consumer price inflation in China probably remained subdued last month (01.30 GMT) … … while we think headline inflation in Mexico rose to almost 8% (12.00 GMT) Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Key Market Themes We doubt that …
8th March 2022
We expect a 50bp rate hike in Poland, but there is a risk of a larger increase Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Read our latest research on the economic impact of the war in Ukraine here Key Market Themes History suggests that …
7th March 2022
China’s FX reserves data may reveal PBOC intervention (Mon.) We think the Russia-Ukraine war will mean the ECB delays its plans to normalise policy (Thu.) Core consumer prices in the US may have risen by less in February than January (Thu.) Key Market …
4th March 2022
Omicron outbreak probably weighed on euro-zone retail sales in January (10.00 GMT) We think US non-farm payrolls rose by 600,000 last month (13.30 GMT) Read our latest research on the economic impact of the war in Ukraine here Key Market Themes So far, …
3rd March 2022
We think Euro-zone unemployment fell to its lowest recorded level in January (10.00 GMT) The US ISM services index probably declined further in February (15.00 GMT) Read our latest research on the economic impact of the war in Ukraine here Key Market …
2nd March 2022
Euro-zone inflation may have risen to almost 6% in February (10.00 GMT) We expect the Bank of Canada to hike rates by 25bp and begin QT (15.00 GMT) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes While the war in Ukraine has …
1st March 2022
Inflation may have reached 5.5% in Germany in January (13.00 GMT) The US ISM Manufacturing Index probably fell back a bit this month (15.00 GMT) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes Aside from Russia , most major …
28th February 2022
We expect the Bank of Canada to kick off its tightening cycle next week (Wednesday) Fading of Omicron virus wave probably boosted US non-farm payrolls in February (Friday) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes After a …
25th February 2022
President Biden is expected to announce new sanctions on Russia later on Thursday You can watch a recording of our latest Drop-In event on Russia-Ukraine developments here Also see here for all of our reports on the economic and market implications of the …
24th February 2022
Raft of speeches by Fed officials may shed more light on the likely size of the first rate hike We think Mexico’s headline inflation edged down to 7.0% in mid-February (12.00 GMT) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here , and sign up for …
23rd February 2022
We expect New Zealand’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 25bp (02.00 GMT) Sign up to hear our take on South Africa’s upcoming budget here Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes While continued escalation of …
22nd February 2022
The German IfO Survey is likely to show continued price pressures (09.00 GMT) We expect Hungary’s central bank to raise its base rate by 50bp (13.00 GMT) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes We doubt that the rise in …
21st February 2022
We think that policymakers in New Zealand will hike interest rates by another 25bp … (Wed.) … but Korea’s central bank is likely to pause its tightening cycle (Thu.) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes While …
18th February 2022
UK retail sales probably rebounded in January as the Omicron wave eased (07.00 GMT) We think Sweden’s CPIF inflation dropped back last month (07.00 GMT) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes While investors have now …
17th February 2022
FOMC minutes later on Wednesday may provide clues on the pace of rate hikes (19.00 GMT) The recovery in Australia’s labour market may have stalled in January (01.30 GMT) We think Turkey’s central bank will leave rates on hold on Thursday (11.00 GMT) Key …
16th February 2022
We think that Chinese consumer price inflation dropped back in January … (01.30 GMT) … but headline inflation in the UK and Canada probably held steady We expect US retail sales rebounded fairly strongly last month (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes We expect …
15th February 2022
We expect the PBOC to cut its Medium-term Lending Facility rate by 10bp Employment in the UK probably fell by 75,000 in December (07.00 GMT) We think that Q4 GDP in Japan rebounded by 1.8% q/q (23.50 GMT) Key Market Themes Two unfamiliar and (largely) …
14th February 2022
Fed minutes may shed more light on the likelihood of a 50bp rate hike in March (Wednesday) We think the UK labour market remained tight in December (Tuesday) We expect the PBOC to cut the rate on its medium-term lending facility by 10bp (Monday) Key …
11th February 2022
The Omicron outbreak probably weighed on UK GDP in December (07.00 GMT) We think Russia’s central bank will hike interest rates by 100bp, to 9.5% (10.30 GMT) We expect US consumer confidence to have ticked up in early February (15.00 GMT) Key Market …
10th February 2022
US headline inflation probably remained above 7% in January (13.30 GMT) We expect central banks in Mexico and Peru to hike their policy rates by a further 50bp… … and the Reserve Bank of India to raise its revere repo rate by 15bp to 3.5% (04.30 GMT) Key …
9th February 2022
Romania’s central bank may raise its policy rate by 25bp, to 2.25% We expect Thailand’s central bank to stand pat throughout 2022 (07.00 GMT) Brazil’s inflation probably rose further last month (12.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Despite recent increases, we …
8th February 2022
We expect Poland’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 50bp to 2.75% We think that the US trade deficit widened in December (13.30 GMT) Find our macro forecasts in our latest Global Economic Outlook here Key Market Themes We don’t think government …
7th February 2022
China’s FX data could provide clues on PBOC exchange rate intervention (Mon.) US CPI inflation may have been close to its peak in January (Thu.) We expect rate hikes in Russia, Mexico, Poland and Romania next week Key Market Themes Today’s …
4th February 2022
We think euro-zone retail sales fell in December (10.00 GMT) The Omicron wave may have caused US payrolls to fall in January (13.30 GMT) Virus cases may have weighed on employment in Canada as well (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Today’s hawkish surprises …
3rd February 2022
We expect the Bank of England to raise Bank Rate by 25bp, to 0.5% (12.00 GMT) In contrast, the ECB will probably keep its policy settings unchanged (12.45 GMT) We think the US ISM services index dropped sharply last month (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes We …
2nd February 2022
Euro-zone inflation probably fell back a bit in January (10.00 GMT) January’s US ADP employment data may give an indication of Omicron’s impact (13.15 GMT) We expect Brazil’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 150bp (21.30 GMT) Key Market Themes …
1st February 2022
We expect the RBA to announce an end to its bond purchases (00.30 GMT) Omicron cases may have weighed on UK households’ borrowing in December (09.30 GMT) The US ISM Manufacturing Index probably fell this month (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes While we think …
31st January 2022
We think that the BOE will hike by 25bp on Thursday … … but that the ECB will leave policy settings unchanged Omicron cases will probably have weighed on US employment growth this month (Fri.) Key Market Themes Even if this month’s falls in equity prices …
28th January 2022
GDP data for Germany may show that its economy contracted in Q4 (09.00 GMT) The Economic Sentiment Indicator for the euro-zone probably fell this month (10.00 GMT) We think Colombia’s central bank will increase the pace of its policy tightening (18.00 …
27th January 2022
Fed likely to hint that a first rate hike may be forthcoming in March (Wed. 19.00 GMT) We think US GDP grew by 4.6% annualised in Q4 (Thu. 13.30 GMT) We expect central banks in Chile and South Africa to hike rates further (Wed. & Thu.) Key Market Themes …
26th January 2022
We suspect that the Bank of Canada will hold off raising rates this month (15.00 GMT) The Fed may hint that a first rate hike is likely to come in March (19.00 GMT) We expect Chile’s central bank to hike by 125bp (21.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Despite its …
25th January 2022
Germany’s IfO Survey probably fell back a bit this month (09.00 GMT) We expect Hungary’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 30bp (13.00 GMT) The Omicron wave may have weighed on consumer confidence in the US (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes US “big …
24th January 2022
Fed officials may issue a hawkish statement at the upcoming FOMC meeting (Wed.) We expect central banks in Chile, Colombia and South Africa to hike rates next week Annual US wage growth may have reached 5% in Q4 (Thu.) Key Market Themes Although we think …
21st January 2022
We expect UK retail sales to have fallen in December (Fri. 07.00 GMT) Japan’s headline inflation probably edged up to 0.8% last month (Thu. 23.30 GMT) Read our key calls for economies and markets in the year ahead here Key Market Themes For the first time …
20th January 2022
We expect China’s central bank to cut its 1-year Loan Prime Rate by 10bp (01.30 GMT) But we think that Turkey’s central bank will pause its easing cycle (11.00 GMT) We also expect interest rates to be left on hold in Indonesia, Malaysia and Norway Key …
19th January 2022
We think that UK inflation will hold steady at its 10-year high of 5.1% (07.00 GMT) We expect Canada’s inflation to have reached its highest level since 1991 (13.30 GMT) Register here for our webinar event “The World in 2022” Key Market Themes With …
18th January 2022
We expect the Bank of Japan will lift its inflation forecast a little We think that the UK labour market held up well in December (07.00 GMT) The Empire State Manufacturing Index in the US probably remained strong (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Although …
17th January 2022
China’s economy probably failed to gain much momentum last quarter (Monday) The Bank of Japan may revise up its inflation forecasts at its policy meeting (Tuesday) We suspect that UK inflation remained above 5%, a 10-year high, last month (Tuesday) Key …
14th January 2022
We expect US retail sales fell slightly in December (13.30 GMT) We think that the UK economy expanded in November (07.00 GMT) China’s exports probably remained strong last month, while imports softened Key Market Themes The US dollar has started the year …
13th January 2022
We think that US producer price inflation picked up in December (13.30 GMT) Lael Brainard likely to reiterate the hawkish line taken by Fed Chair Powell (15.00 GMT) Register here for our Drop-In event on Omicron, hawkish central banks and the 2022 outlook …
12th January 2022
Consumer and producer price inflation in China probably fell back last month (01.30 GMT) Euro-zone industrial production may have dipped in November (10.00 GMT) We think US headline CPI rose above 7% in December (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes We expect …
11th January 2022
Australia’s trade balance was probably broadly unchanged in November (01.30 GMT) We think Brazil’s inflation fell in December, but remained well above target (12.00 GMT) Chair Powell’s confirmation hearing may provide hints about the Fed’s plans (15.00 …
10th January 2022
We think headline CPI inflation fell to 1.4% in China in December... (Wed.) ... but rose to above 7% in the US last month (Wed.) US retail sales and industrial production probably edged lower in December (Fri.) Key Market Themes Even though investors …
7th January 2022
Peru’s central bank is likely to hike its policy rate by another 50bp on Thursday (23.00 GMT) We expect euro-zone HICP inflation edged up to around 5.0% in December (10.00 GMT) We think that US non-farm payrolls increased by 350,000 last month (13.30 GMT) …
6th January 2022
Fed minutes may shed more light on the timing of lift-off in the US (Wed., 19.00 GMT) We expect the US ISM Services Index to have dropped back in December (Thu., 15.00 GMT) We think Germany’s headline inflation edged down last month (Thu.,13.00 GMT) Key …
5th January 2022
Euro-zone PMIs for December likely to have been revised down (09.00 GMT) Fed minutes may provide more detail on the central bank’s hawkish shift (19.00 GMT) See our latest research on the economic impact of the Omicron variant here Key Market Themes After …
4th January 2022
We think the Bank of Thailand will keep rates on hold tomorrow... (07.05 GMT) … but we expect a 75bp hike from the Czech National Bank (13.30 GMT) Factory closures and virus restrictions may have weighed on China’s PMIs this month Key Market Themes Even …
21st December 2021
We think that UK public borrowing was in line with OBR estimates last month (07.00 GMT) New restrictions probably hurt euro-zone consumer confidence in December (15.00 GMT) Find our Chief Economist’s five key reads from 2021 here Key Market Themes If …
20th December 2021
We think that policymakers in China could deliver a surprise rate cut (Mon.) But the Czech central bank is likely to continue with its tightening cycle (Wed.) We forecast a strong rise in headline US durable goods orders (Thu.) Key Market Themes While the …
17th December 2021
