We expect US data to show weak economic momentum in November (13.30 GMT) Clients can read our World In 2023 reports here … …and register for the related Drop-In sessions, in early January, on the same page The next edition of the Capital Daily will be …
22nd December 2022
We expect Indonesia’s central bank to hike by 25bp tomorrow (07.20 GMT) Turkey’s central bank will probably leave policy on hold (11.00 GMT) We think inflation in Mexico edged down in the first half of December (12.00 GMT) Key Market Themes We doubt the …
21st December 2022
Headline inflation may have dropped back in Canada in November (13.30 GMT) We expect the Czech central bank to keep interest rates on hold (13.30 GMT) Sign up here for our Drop-In on Wednesday to discuss the BoJ decision Key Market Themes Although …
20th December 2022
We expect the PBOC to keep the Loan Prime Rate on hold (01.15 GMT) The BoJ will probably keep its policy settings unchanged… …and we think Hungary’s central bank will do likewise (13:00 GMT) Key Market Themes Investors seem to have priced in a more …
19th December 2022
We expect the BoJ to leave its policy settings unchanged next week… (Tue.) …and we think central banks in Hungary, Czechia and Turkey will do likewise Indonesia’s central bank will probably slow its pace of tightening to 25bp (Thu.) Key Market Themes …
16th December 2022
Fed strikes back but activity data suggests it will cut rates before the end of next year Markets take fright at ECB’s hawkish comments and the prospect of quantitative tightening Despite a dovish tone, the BoE may yet hike rates much further Key …
15th December 2022
We expect the Fed to slow the pace of rate hikes to 50bp later today (19.00 GMT) The BoE will probably also slow tightening and hike by 50bp on Thursday… (12.00 GMT) … and we think the ECB will follow suit with a 50bp increase too (13.15 GMT) Key Market …
14th December 2022
We think UK CPI inflation held steady at 11.1% in November (07.00 GMT) Euro-zone industrial production probably fell by about 2% m/m in October (10.00 GMT) We expect the Fed to deliver a 50bp hike and project a higher peak in rates (19.00 GMT) Key …
13th December 2022
We think tightness in the UK labour market eased in October (07.00 GMT) Germany’s ZEW survey may show an improvement in investor sentiment (10.00 GMT) US consumer price inflation probably fell back further in November (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes With …
12th December 2022
We think US consumer price inflation continued to ease last month (Tue.) We expect the Fed to slow the pace of tightening with a 50bp hike (Wed.) Clients can register here for our Drop In for next week’s major central bank decisions (Thu.) Key Market …
9th December 2022
We think price pressures in China cooled further in November… (01.30 GMT) … while a decline in US PPI could foreshadow a similar drop in CPI next week (13.30 GMT) University of Michigan consumer confidence is probably still historically weak (15.00 GMT) …
8th December 2022
We think the Bank of Canada will hike rates by 25bp later today… (15.00 GMT) …but central banks in Brazil and Poland will probably keep rates unchanged Catch-up here on yesterday’s Drop-In on inflation in the US and the Euro-zone Key Market Themes An …
7th December 2022
Germany’s industrial output probably contracted by 0.5% m/m in October (07.00 GMT) We expect China’s exports to have fallen by 5.5% y/y due to cooling global demand We think the Bank of Canada will hike rates by 25bp, while Poland’s central bank stays …
6th December 2022
We think the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike the cash rate by 25bp (03.30 GMT) The US international trade deficit probably widened sharply in October (13.30 GMT) Clients can sign-up here for a Drop In on our inflation outlook for the US and …
5th December 2022
Euro-zone retail sales may have fallen in October (Mon.) We except another hike from central banks in Australia (Tue.), India and Peru… (Wed.) … while banks in Chile (Tue.), Poland and Brazil will probably keep rates unchanged (Wed.) Key Market Themes …
2nd December 2022
We think US non-farm payrolls rose by a more modest 175,000 in November… (13.30 GMT) … while employment growth in Canada probably slowed to 25,000 last month (13.30 GMT) Catch up on our Drop-In discussing EM inflation dynamics here Key Market Themes The …
1st December 2022
Fed’s Powell may push back against recent easing in financial conditions (Wed., 18.30 GMT) We think US manufacturing ISM may have slipped below 50 in November (Thu., 15.00 GMT) We will be hosting Drop-Ins on UK house prices and EM policy rates tomorrow …
30th November 2022
Turkey’s GDP growth probably slowed in the third quarter (07.00) We think euro-zone inflation declined in October (10.00 GMT) Thailand’s central bank is likely to hike by 25bp (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Although Bund yields have fallen today amid …
29th November 2022
The Euro-zone’s Economic Sentiment Index is likely to have remained very weak (10.00 GMT) We think Germany’s HICP inflation stayed at 11.6% in November (13.00 GMT) Canada’s GDP growth probably slowed to 1.6% annualised in the third quarter (13.30 GMT) …
28th November 2022
Euro-zone inflation may have risen again this month (Wed.) November’s US ISM manufacturing survey probably dropped below 50 (Thu.) We think US non-farm payrolls rose by a more modest 175,000 in November (Fri.) Key Market Themes Chinese equities have …
25th November 2022
A fall in Tokyo’s inflation might suggest that Japan’s national inflation has peaked (Thu.) Catch up on today’s Asia Macro Drop-In, and all our Drop-Ins, here … …or check out our Weekly Briefing podcast episodes here Key Market Themes Despite the …
24th November 2022
We expect central banks in Korea, Sweden and South Africa to hike policy rates… …but think Turkey’s central bank will cut rates, and that a RRR cut is imminent in China Client can sign up here for our Drop-In on Asia’s big macro and market stories …
23rd November 2022
Reserve Bank of New Zealand will probably hike by 75bp on Wednesday (01.00 GMT) We think South Africa’s inflation softened in October (08.00 GMT) We expect UK Flash PMIs to show further weakness in November (09.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Supply …
22nd November 2022
We expect Nigeria’s central bank to hike by 100bp to 16.5%… …but Hungary’s central bank is likely to keep policy settings unchanged (13.00 GMT) We think retail sales in Canada fell by 1.0% m/m in September (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes The …
21st November 2022
We expect 75bp rate hikes from central banks in New Zealand, Sweden and South Africa We think flash PMI data for November will show that activity contracted in the UK… (Wed.) …as well as in Germany, France and in the euro-zone (Wed.) Key Market Themes …
18th November 2022
Japan’s headline inflation probably rose to 3.5% in October (Thu., 23.30 GMT) We think UK retail sales volumes were flat in October (07.00 GMT) We suspect Chile’s GDP contracted by 0.3% q/q in Q3 (11.30 GMT) Key Market Themes The market reaction to …
17th November 2022
We think US housing starts fell in October on the back of rising mortgage rates (15.00 GMT) We expect the central banks of Indonesia and the Philippines to raise rates Clients can sign up here for our Drop-In on the UK Autumn Statement (16.00 GMT) Key …
16th November 2022
Higher utility prices probably pushed UK CPI inflation higher in October (07.00 GMT) We think US retail sales increased by 1.3% last month… (13.30 GMT) … but we expect industrial production to have risen by a more-muted 0.2% (14.15 GMT) Key Market …
15th November 2022
Activity data likely to show that China’s economy lost momentum last month… (02.00 GMT) …but we expect the PBOC to refrain from cutting its MLF rate tomorrow We think tightness in the UK labour market eased in September (07.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
14th November 2022
We think economic activity was weak in China in October, but probably held up in the US We expect central banks in the Philippines and Indonesia to hike rates (Thu.) Clients can sign up here for our Drop-In on the UK Autumn Statement (Thu.) Key Market …
11th November 2022
We think Malaysia’s GDP growth slowed sharply in Q3… (04.00 GMT) … and the UK economy contracted, marking the start of a recession (07.00 GMT) Consumer sentiment in the US probably remained low in early November (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes US …
10th November 2022
We think US consumer price inflation fell back in October (13.30 GMT) Mexico’s central bank is likely to deliver another 75bp hike… (19.00 GMT) … but we expect policymakers in Peru to keep interest rates on hold (23.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The …
9th November 2022
We think CPI inflation eased in China in October … (01.30 GMT) …but remained well above the central bank’s target in Mexico (12.00 GMT) We expect Poland’s central bank to announce a 25bp hike Key Market Themes Although US “big-tech” stocks have had a …
8th November 2022
We think euro-zone retail sales increased by 0.8% m/m in September (10.00 GMT) Romania’s central bank is likely to hike by 50bp (13.00 GMT) Register here for a Drop-In to discuss the key takeaways from our Global Economic Outlook Key Market Themes The …
7th November 2022
Germany’s industrial production probably slumped in September (Mon.) We think annual US core CPI inflation fell in October (Thu.) We expect rate hikes in Mexico, Poland and Romania Key Market Themes While we still think a sustained fall in Treasury …
4th November 2022
Composite PMIs for Italy and Spain probably fell further in October (09.00 GMT) We think US non-farm payrolls rose by 225,000 in October (12.30 GMT) Sign-up to our Global Economics Drop-In on the upcoming recession Key Market Themes We’re inclined to …
3rd November 2022
We think the Fed will deliver another 75bp hike today (18.00 GMT) Norway’s central bank will probably hike by 50bp on Thursday... (09.00 GMT) …and we expect the Bank of England to raise its policy rate by 100bp (12.00 GMT) Key Market Themes We think an …
2nd November 2022
We expect the Fed to deliver a fourth 75bp rate hike, before slowing down (18.00 GMT) Sign up for our UK Drop-In looking ahead to the Bank of England’s policy meeting … … and for our Climate Drop-In on the forces that will drive the green transition Key …
1st November 2022
We expect the RBA to hike by 25bp (03.30 BST) We expect the ISM manufacturing index for October to have fallen below 50 (14.00 BST) Clients can sign up here for our Drop-In on US real estate (16.00 BST) Key Market Themes We suspect investors are a bit …
31st October 2022
We think the Fed will raise rates by 75bp next week…(Wed.) …while the Bank of England may hike by 100bp (Thu.) We expect a smaller gain in US non-farm payrolls in October (Fri.) Key Market Themes We don’t think growth stocks ’ relative struggles are …
28th October 2022
The US dollar looks set to end the week lower amid a rally in most riskier assets and currencies, driven in large part by renewed hopes that the Fed and other major central banks will soon slow the pace of policy tightening. This notion has been fuelled …
We expect the Bank of Japan to leave policy unchanged Russia’s central bank may cut its policy rate by another 50bp… (11.30 BST) …while we expect a 100bp rate hike in Colombia (19.00 BST) Key Market Themes Despite some dovish elements in today’s ECB …
27th October 2022
We expect another big hike from the ECB on Thursday (13.15 BST) We think US GDP rebounded in the third quarter (13.30 BST) Sign up for our Asia Drop-In on China’s Congress, yen weakness and more Key Market Themes The rebound across major bond , equity , …
26th October 2022
We think CPI inflation in Australia accelerated to 7.2% in Q3 (01.30 BST) We expect another 75bp rate hike from the Bank of Canada (15.00 BST) But Brazil’s central bank is likely to leave its policy rate on hold (22.30 BST) Key Market Themes Recent …
25th October 2022
German Ifo may point towards a deep recession (09.00 BST) We expect Hungary’s central bank to leave its main policy rate on hold (13.00 BST) Clients can sign up here for a Drop-In on the outlook for the euro-zone (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Given all …
24th October 2022
We think the ECB will raise its policy rate by 100bp… (Thu.) …and we expect large rate hikes in Canada and Colombia too But we think policymakers in Brazil, Hungary, and Japan will leave rates on hold Key Market Themes China’s stock markets have fallen …
21st October 2022
We expect to see a fall in retail sales volumes in the UK in September… (07.00 BST) … and a rise in Poland over the same period… (09.00 BST) … but we think retail sales values were broadly unchanged in Canada in August. (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes UK …
20th October 2022
China’s central bank will probably keep its Loan Prime Rate unchanged… (02.15 BST) …but we think Indonesia’s will hike by 50 bp (08.20 BST) We expect Turkey’s central bank to cut interest rates by 50 bp (12.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although corporate …
19th October 2022
UK headline inflation may have surpassed 10% in September… (07.00 BST) … but CPI inflation in Canada probably dropped back (13.30 BST) We think US housing starts slumped last month (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The yen ’s latest weakness has pushed its …
18th October 2022
Germany’s ZEW indicator probably plunged again in October (10.00 BST) US industrial production appears to be flatlining (14.15 BST) Sign up here for our final CE Spotlight Drop-In to discuss commodities and green transitions Key Market Themes While …
17th October 2022
