Clients can find our coverage on the SVB collapse on our designated landing page here … …and sign-up here for our Drop-In on the policy outlook for the ECB (10.00 GMT) We think US consumer price inflation fell only slightly, to 6.1%, in February (12.30 …
13th March 2023
We think US consumer price inflation fell slightly to around 6% in February (Tue.) Retail sales in China probably rebounded in January and February (Wed.) We expect the ECB to hike by a further 50bp (Thu.) Key Market Themes US government bond yields …
10th March 2023
The Bank of Japan could abandon Yield Curve Control tomorrow We think UK GDP growth picked up in January, but recession looms (07.00 GMT) We expect US payrolls data to confirm that January strength was a blip (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes We think …
9th March 2023
China inflation data likely to show rising price pressures (01.30 GMT) We expect interest rates to be left on hold in Malaysia… (07.00 GMT) …and also expect Peru’s central bank to leave rates unchanged (23.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Most “risky” assets …
8th March 2023
Germany’s industrial production probably fell a bit further in January (07.00 GMT) We think Poland’s central bank will leave its policy rate on hold… (13.00 GMT) …and the Bank of Canada will keep its policy rate unchanged as well (15.00 GMT) Key Market …
7th March 2023
We expect Australia’s central bank to hike by 25bp (04.30 GMT) Fed Chair Powell may reveal whether his outlook for interest rates has changed (15.00 GMT) We think China’s exports weakened, but imports strengthened, in January and February Key Market …
6th March 2023
We expect Australia’s RBA to hike by another 25bp (Tue.) Japan’s central bank will probably abandon Yield Curve Control (Thu./Fri.) We think US non-farm payrolls rose by 200,000 in February (Fri.) Key Market Themes Notwithstanding the partial …
3rd March 2023
We think inflation in Turkey eased slightly to 54% in February (07.00 GMT) Final PMIs in Europe may confirm that activity is holding up better than expected (09.00 GMT) We expect the US ISM services index to have fallen back in February (15.00 GMT) …
2nd March 2023
Strong data in France and Spain suggest to us euro-zone inflation rose in February (10.00 GMT) We think Brazil GDP figures will confirm the economic growth was flat in Q4 (12.00 GMT) Clients can sign-up here to our Drop-In on the impact of elections in …
1st March 2023
We think Australia’s GDP growth softened a touch in Q4 (00.30 GMT) Germany’s HICP inflation probably fell in January (13.00 GMT) We expect the ISM manufacturing index for February to have remained weak (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes We think the recent …
28th February 2023
We expect Hungary’s central bank to leave its policy rates on hold (13.00 GMT) US consumer confidence may have recovered a bit but is probably still low (15.00 GMT) Join our Drop-In on the long-run economic and market impacts of fracturing (15.00 GMT) …
27th February 2023
We think that euro-zone inflation fell again in February (Wed.) The China PMIs will probably show another acceleration in activity (Wed. & Fri.) We doubt that the February ISM surveys will point to stronger growth (Thu. & Fri.) Key Market Themes Despite …
24th February 2023
We think Japan’s headline CPI inflation rose to a four-decade high in January (23.30 GMT) US income and spending data is likely to show a strong rebound in consumption (13.30 GMT) We expect headline and core US PCE price indices to have risen by 0.5% …
23rd February 2023
Turkey’s central bank will probably cut its policy rate by 100bp (11.00 GMT) We think Mexico’s CPI edged down to 7.6% in the first half of February (12.00 GMT) We expect policymakers in Korea to keep interest rates on hold Key Market Themes We doubt …
22nd February 2023
We think the RBNZ will hike rates by an above-consensus 75bp (01.00 GMT) Final German HICP data will offer more clarity on inflation’s drivers there (07.00 GMT) February FOMC minutes may give more insight into the Fed’s thinking (19.00 GMT) Key Market …
21st February 2023
The February composite PMI probably rose further above 50 in the euro-zone… (09.00 GMT) … and remained below 50 in the UK and the US We think CPI inflation was unchanged at 6.3% in Canada in January (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Those hoping for stellar …
20th February 2023
We think the Composite PMI rose to just above 50 in February in the euro-zone… (Tue.) …but remained below that threshold in the UK (Tue.) US real consumption probably rebounded in January, reversing declines in past months (Fri.) Key Market Themes While …
17th February 2023
UK retail sales volumes probably rose by 0.5% m/m in January (07.00 GMT) We think Russia’s GDP fell by 3.5% y/y in Q4 (16.00 GMT) Catch-up here on yesterday’s Drop-In on our UK economic outlook Key Market Themes The recent strength of the US dollar and …
16th February 2023
We expect the central bank in the Philippines to raise rates by 50bps to 6%... (07.00 GMT) … and Bank Indonesia to keep rates unchanged at 5.75% (07.20 GMT) US January housing starts may temper economic optimism a bit (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes This …
15th February 2023
We think the PBOC will cut the interest rate on its Medium-Term Lending Facility UK CPI inflation probably fell further in January (07.00 GMT) We expect US activity data to show some recovery, due partly to easing supply shortages Key Market Themes …
14th February 2023
UK labour market probably remained historically tight in December (07.00 GMT) Economies in Central and Eastern Europe likely to have contracted in Q4 We think US headline and core inflation eased further in January (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Despite …
13th February 2023
We think annual US core CPI inflation fell to 6.1% in January… (Tue.) …while CPI inflation in the UK declined to 10.2%, from 10.5% in December (Wed.) We think Q4 GDP growth weakened in Colombia, Hungary, Romania, and Israel Key Market Themes Kazuo Ueda …
10th February 2023
We anticipate interest rate hikes in Mexico and Peru… (Thu.) … but think Russia’s central bank will leave rates on hold (Fri.) UK GDP data likely to show that the economy avoided a recession in 2022 (Fri.) Key Market Themes Shrinking central bank …
9th February 2023
We expect the Riksbank to conclude its tightening cycle with a 50bp hike (08.30 GMT) The central banks of Mexico and Peru are also likely to deliver final 25bp hikes… …while policymakers in Romania will probably keep interest rates on hold Key Market …
8th February 2023
We think India’s central bank will deliver a final rate hike, of 25bp, to 6.5%... (04.30 GMT) … but expect policymakers in Poland to keep rates unchanged at 6.75% Inflation in Russia probably rose a bit, to 12%, in January (16.00 GMT) Key Market …
7th February 2023
Germany’s industrial production probably didn’t change much in December (07.00 GMT) We think the trade deficit in the US widened last month… (13.30 GMT) …while Canada’s merchandise trade balance fell back into deficit (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes …
6th February 2023
We think euro-zone retail sales contracted sharply in December (Tuesday) UK Q4 GDP is likely to confirm the economy avoided recession in 2022 (Friday) We expect central banks in Australia, Sweden, India, Mexico and Peru to hike rates next week Key …
3rd February 2023
We expect growth in US payrolls in January continued to slow (13.30 GMT) ISM Services Index likely to be consistent with mild US recession (15.00 GMT) We held a Drop-In on the Fed, ECB & BoE today – clients can catch up here Key Market Themes Despite …
2nd February 2023
The Fed will probably deliver a smaller 25bp hike, pushing the FFR to 4.50%-4.75% (Wed.) We think strong recent data will prompt the BoE to raise rates by 50bp, to 4%... (Thu.) …while the ECB will increase its deposit rate by 50bp to 2.5%, as signalled …
1st February 2023
We think euro-zone inflation rose slightly in January (10.00 GMT) ISM manufacturing index may have fallen further below 50 in January (15.00 GMT) The Fed is set to hike by 25bp (19.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Although China’s equities have now rallied a …
31st January 2023
We think China’s PMIs picked up in January as its COVID wave ebbed (01.30 GMT) Euro-zone GDP probably flatlined in the fourth quarter… (10.00 GMT) …and economic growth may have weakened in Mexico and the Czech Republic Key Market Themes The Fed , ECB …
30th January 2023
We expect the Fed to slow the pace of interest rate hikes to 25bp… (Wednesday) …but the ECB and Bank of England are likely to raise rates by 50bp (Thursday) We’ve pencilled in a below-consensus gain of 150,000 in US non-farm payrolls (Friday) Key Market …
27th January 2023
We expect Chile's central bank to leave its policy rate on hold at 11.25% (Thu.) Spain’s economy probably stagnated in the fourth quarter of last year (Fri.) We think US real consumption declined in December (Fri.) Key Market Themes “High-beta” …
26th January 2023
We think the US economy expanded by nearly 2% annualised in Q4... (13.30 GMT) South Africa’s central bank will probably hike by 50bp on Thursday Sign up here for our Drop In on the latest economic and market developments in Asia Key Market Themes …
25th January 2023
We expect the Bank of Canada to hike by 25bp… (15.00 GMT) … and clients can register here for our Drop-In following that decision (17.00 GMT) We think rates will be raised by 25bp in Thailand and be left on hold in Sri Lanka Key Market Themes Today's …
24th January 2023
The flash PMI might have edged up in the euro-zone in January… (09.00 GMT) … but we think it fell back in the UK (09.30 GMT) We expect central banks in Hungary and Nigeria to keep interest rates on hold Key Market Themes We don’t think government bond …
23rd January 2023
We expect rate hikes in Canada, Colombia, South Africa and Thailand… …but expect central banks in Hungary and Chile to leave rates on hold US data likely to show that economic momentum faded in December (Thu. & Fri.) Key Market Themes Although the …
20th January 2023
We expect the China’s Loan Prime Rate to remain unchanged (01.30 GMT) Retail sales in the UK probably increased by 2.5% m/m in December… (07.00 GMT) …but in Canada we think that preliminary data will show retail sales declined (13.30 GMT) Key Market …
19th January 2023
Japan’s trade deficit probably widened in December (23.50 GMT) We think the Norges Bank will hike its policy rate by 25bp, to 3.00% (09.00 GMT) US housing starts may have fallen sharply in December (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes The latest signs that …
18th January 2023
We think the Bank of Japan will probably keep policy settings unchanged on Wednesday We expect UK CPI inflation to have fallen from 10.7% to 10.2% in December (07.00 GMT) US retail sales and industrial production data are both likely to be weak (13.30 & …
17th January 2023
Activity data is likely to show that China’s economy lost momentum last month (02.00 GMT) We think tightness in the UK labour market eased in November (07.00 GMT) Germany’s ZEW survey will offer first clues about economic sentiment this year (10.00 GMT) …
16th January 2023
BoJ may abandon Yield Curve Control as soon as next week (Wed) We think the PBOC will leave rates on hold next week, buts cuts are coming We anticipate interest rate hikes in Norway, Indonesia and Malaysia Key Market Themes An end to Japan’s Yield Curve …
13th January 2023
The Bank of Korea is likely to implement one final 25bp hike (01.00 GMT) Chinese trade data will probably show falls in both imports and exports in December We think UK GDP fell by 0.3% m/m in November (07.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The latest evidence …
12th January 2023
December CPI inflation probably edged down in China despite reopening… (01.30 GMT) … and fell back in the US driven by softer core inflation and lower energy prices (13.30 GMT) Sign up here for our Drop-In on the implications of the US CPI print for …
11th January 2023
We think Australia’s consumer price inflation remained at 6.9% in November (00.30 GMT) Catch up here on today’s Global Macro Drop-In where we discussed our 2023 outlook… …and sign up here for tomorrow’s Financial and Commodity Markets Drop-In Key Market …
10th January 2023
We think Norway’s headline inflation fell sharply in December… (07.00 GMT) … and edged lower in Brazil (18.00 GMT) Sign up for our Drop-In tomorrow on the outlook for the global economy in 2023 Key Market Themes The storming of Brazil’s congress by …
9th January 2023
Credit growth in China probably remained weak at the end of last year We think US CPI inflation fell further in December (Thu.) We expect rate hikes in Korea and Romania next week Key Market Themes While investors seem to have judged that today’s …
6th January 2023
Euro-zone inflation may have fallen to 9.2% in December (10.00 GMT) We think US non-farm payrolls growth slowed to 160,000 in December (13.30 GMT) The US ISM Services survey will probably point to slowing momentum (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Despite …
5th January 2023
December FOMC minutes may reveal impact of softer CPI prints on Fed thinking (19.00 GMT) We think the US trade balance narrowed dramatically in November (13.30 GMT) Sign up for our Drop In on the outlook for global inflation here Key Market Themes …
4th January 2023
The US ISM Manufacturing Index may have dipped further in December (15.00 GMT) We expect Poland’s central bank to keep rates on hold on Wednesday Read our key calls for the global economy and financial markets in 2023 here Key Market Themes After …
3rd January 2023
