Filtered by Topic: Monetary Policy Use setting Monetary Policy
We think the end of lockdowns boosted Australia’s retail sales in October (00.30 GMT) Switzerland’s GDP growth probably slowed a bit in Q3 (08.00 GMT) Find our latest analysis of Turkey’s currency crisis here Key Market Themes While the accounts of the …
25th November 2021
Sweden’s Riksbank may strike a slightly less dovish tone at its policy meeting (08.30 GMT) Brazil’s inflation probably remained very high in early November (12.00 GMT) We expect Korea’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 25bp Key Market Themes We …
24th November 2021
We think the RBNZ will raise its policy rate by 50bp (02.00 GMT) US durable goods orders probably dropped back in October (13.30 GMT) FOMC minutes may show extent of support for a faster taper (19.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Turkey ’s currency crisis – the …
23rd November 2021
Fed set to announce the start of asset purchase tapering (Wednesday 18.00 GMT) We expect the BoE to hike its policy rate by 15bp, to 0.25% (Thursday 12.00 GMT) We think the composite PMIs for Italy and Spain fell in October (Thursday) Key Market Themes We …
3rd November 2021
We expect Poland’s central bank to hike rates by 25bp The euro-zone’s unemployment rate probably fell in September (10.00 GMT) The Fed is likely to announce the start of asset purchase tapering (18.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Although near-term inflationary …
2nd November 2021
Fed likely to announce start of tapering, and signal concerns about inflation (Wed.) We think that the BoE will be the next DM central bank to hike rates (Thu.) Labour shortages probably continued to limit US employment growth (Fri.) Key Market Themes …
29th October 2021
Flash composite PMIs for the euro-zone and the UK probably dropped back in October We expect the central bank of Russia to hike its policy rate by 50bp, to 7.25% (11.30 BST) Inflation in Mexico likely to have stayed above target in mid-October (12.00 BST) …
21st October 2021
UK public borrowing may have fallen by more than expected in September (07.00 BST) We anticipate a 100bp rate cut from Turkey’s central bank (12.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macroeconomic forecasts and their market implications here Key Market …
20th October 2021
We think industrial production in Japan increased last month (00.50 BST) China’s PMI data will probably point to further loss of momentum in September (02.00 BST) Central banks in Czechia, Mexico, and Colombia likely to hike rates Key Market Themes …
29th September 2021
Probably too soon for a Fed tapering announcement (19.00 BST) China’s loan prime rate (LPR) likely to be steady for now, but to fall before long (02.30 BST) We expect Brazil’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 100bp (22.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
21st September 2021
We think that UK public sector net borrowing remained elevated in August (07.00 BST) Policymakers in Sweden look likely to leave rates on hold … (08.30 BST) … but we expect Hungary’s central bank to hike its policy rate by another 30bp (13.00 BST) Key …
20th September 2021
Probably too soon for the Fed to announce tapering; new 2024 rate projections due (Wed.) Brazil’s central bank likely to raise its policy rate by a further 100bp (Wed.) We think Norway’s central bank will begin its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike (Thu.) …
17th September 2021
We think the UK economy lost some momentum in July (07.00 BST) We expect Russia’s central bank to hike by 50bp at its meeting on Friday (11.30 BST) US producer prices for August may show further inflationary pressure (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The ECB …
9th September 2021
We expect Mexico’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp later today (19.00 BST) Sweden’s core inflation was probably very weak in July (08.30 BST) Virus concerns likely to have weighed on US consumer confidence in August (15.00 BST) Key Market …
12th August 2021
US ADP report will give first clues about the health of the labour market in July (13.15 BST) We expect Brazil’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 100bp, to 5.25% (22.30 BST) Euro-zone retail sales probably rose by around 2% m/m in June (10.00 BST) …
3rd August 2021
Sweden’s GDP likely to have risen back above pre-pandemic level (08.30 BST) We think the euro-zone’s ESI rose to a 22-year high this month (10.00 BST) US GDP growth probably accelerated in Q2, but Q3 looks less promising (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The …
28th July 2021
Fed unlikely to be ready to issue tapering guidance (19.00 BST) Canada’s headline inflation probably fell from 3.6% to about 3.2% in June (13.30 BST) We are now anticipating a faster tightening cycle in Hungary Key Market Themes Although equity indices in …
27th July 2021
We think UK retail sales fell further in May as consumption shifted to services (07.00 BST) Markit PMIs for the euro-zone are likely to indicate a continued expansion in July (09.00 BST) Russia’s central bank is likely to raise its policy rate by 100bp …
22nd July 2021
We think that US core CPI inflation rose above 4% last month (13.30 BST) China’s June trade data should show how much disruption port closures caused Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes The …
12th July 2021
ECB announces revamp of its policy framework, including new inflation target China’s June inflation data may point to easing price pressures (02.30 BST) UK GDP probably grew strongly in May as COVID-19 restrictions lifted (07.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
8th July 2021
We expect Poland’s central bank to stay on hold but revise up its forecast for GDP and inflation Inflation probably remained unchanged in Mexico last month (12.00 BST) … … while inflation is likely to have edged up in Brazil and Chile (13.00 BST) Key …
7th July 2021
Fed minutes may shed more light on officials’ latest thinking about tapering (14.00 BST) We expect Germany’s industrial production to have edged up in May (07.00 BST) Russia’s headline inflation probably rose last month (17.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
6th July 2021
We think Sweden’s Riksbank could signal a rate hike in late 2023 (08.30 BST) June’s ISM Manufacturing Index may provide insight on recent supply shortages (15.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key …
30th June 2021
We expect that China’s manufacturing PMIs edged down in June (02.00 BST) The flash estimate of euro-zone HICP inflation probably fell slightly in June (10.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market …
29th June 2021
UK consumer credit likely to have increased as the economy reopened (09.30 BST) We think economic sentiment in the euro-zone continued to improve (10.00 BST) Colombia’s central bank will probably stay on hold, but sound more hawkish Key Market Themes …
28th June 2021
We think that US real consumption fell slightly in May… … while change in the core PCE deflator remained high, at 0.6% m/m (13.30 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes The yield of 10-year …
24th June 2021
Germany’s Ifo survey likely to rise again this month (09.00 BST) We don’t expect BoE to suggest it is any closer to tightening policy (12.00 BST) Banxico likely to look through rising inflation (19.00 BST) Key Market Themes As the dust finally begins to …
23rd June 2021
We expect both the SNB and Norges Bank to leave interest rates on hold… (8.30/9.00 BST) … and Turkey’s central bank is likely to also stand pat, for now (12.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market …
16th June 2021
Fed may begin discussion of how to eventually begin tapering its asset purchases (19.00 BST) We think industrial production growth in China slowed last month (03.00 BST) We expect the central bank of Brazil to raise its policy rate by 75bp to 4.25% (22.30 …
15th June 2021
UK unemployment rate probably fell while wage growth rose in April (07.00 BST) We think that US retail sales fell back from a high level in May (13.30 BST) US industrial production may have risen at a slower pace last month (14.15 BST) Key Market Themes …
14th June 2021
US consumer confidence and inflation expectations probably picked up in April (15.00 BST) We think UK GDP expanded by 3% m/m in April (07.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes Despite the …
10th June 2021
We think US durable goods orders grew by a healthy 4.2% m/m in April (13.30 BST) With inflation subdued, we think the Bank of Korea will leave interest rates unchanged Read our latest views on currencies on our recently launched FX Markets Service here …
26th May 2021
The Ifo Survey in Germany probably rose again in May (07.00 BST) Inflation in Brazil is likely to have jumped, leading to tighter monetary policy (13.00 BST) We expect Hungary’s central bank to leave rates unchanged but update guidance (13.00 BST) Key …
24th May 2021
South Africa’s central bank is likely to keep its rate at 3.5% due to weak economic growth We expect that higher headline inflation in Saudi Arabia will only last until June We think unemployment in Australia fell to 5.4% in April as wage subsidies ended …
19th May 2021
The BoJ may tweak some of its policy settings, including its yield curve target tolerance band UK government borrowing is likely to have remained high in February (07.00 GMT) We expect Russia’s central bank to keep its policy rate on hold at 4.25% (10.30 …
18th March 2021
Retail sales in the UK probably edged down in January due to virus restrictions (07.00 GMT) Euro-zone flash PMIs likely to show manufacturing activity remains resilient… (09.00 GMT) …while flash PMIs in the US are likely to point to a strong recovery …
18th February 2021
Euro-zone CPI inflation probably rose in January (10.00 GMT) We think virus-related restrictions weighed on US employment last month… (13.15 GMT) … but that the ISM services index will point to a continued recovery in activity (15.00 GMT) Key Market …
2nd February 2021
We expect the FOMC to reiterate its commitment to accommodative policy today Economic sentiment may have deteriorated in Europe in January (10:00 GMT) US GDP growth probably slowed in Q4 (13:30 GMT) Key Market Themes It seems very unlikely that the FOMC …
27th January 2021
US headline CPI inflation probably ticked up in December (Wednesday) We think that UK GDP fell by 8% in November due to lockdown restrictions (Friday) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated page Key Market Themes …
8th January 2021
EU leaders set to discuss the EC’s proposal for a €750bn joint recovery fund (09.00 BST) Russia’s central bank is likely to cut its policy rate to a post-Soviet low of 4.50% (14.00 BST) May UK retail sales data to give first indication of the speed of the …
18th June 2020
Central bank of Brazil likely to cut its policy rate by 75bp to 2.25% We think that headline inflation fell from 0.8% to 0.6% in the UK last month … (07.00 BST) … and that it remained in negative territory in Canada (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Even if …
16th June 2020
Congress is reportedly considering expanding support to small businesses US consumer confidence index likely to show its biggest ever fall in April (15.00 BST) We expect Korea’s central bank to cut its policy rate to an all-time low of 0.50% Key Market …
8th April 2020
US Q3 GDP growth will probably be confirmed at 1.9% q/q annualised (13.30 GMT) US durable goods and income & spending reports for October are due … … and are likely to reiterate that underlying domestic demand growth has continued to slow Key Market …
26th November 2019
