Filtered by Topic: Monetary Policy Use setting Monetary Policy
Global economic and market analysis from Capital Economics We expect the Fed to hike the fed funds rate by 75bp, to 2.25-2.50%(19.00 BST) We think the US economy expanded by just above 1% q/q annualised last quarter (13.30 BST) Register for our Drop-In on …
27th July 2022
Global economic and market analysis from Capital Economics Inflation probably edged down in Brazil in the first half of July (13.00 BST) We expect Hungary’s central bank to hike rates by 100bp (13.00 BST) Clients can register here for a Drop-In on our …
25th July 2022
Headline CPI inflation probably eased in Japan in June (00.30 BST) Rising prices probably weighed on June retail sales volumes in the UK (07.00 BST) We expect July’s flash PMIs to show that activity weakened in the euro-zone & the UK Key Market Themes …
21st July 2022
We expect lift-off from the ECB and a rate hike in South Africa too… …but think that central banks in Indonesia, Turkey and Japan will stand pat Gas exports to Europe via NordStream are scheduled to resume tomorrow Key Market Themes The release of strong …
20th July 2022
UK CPI inflation may have risen further in June (Tue.) We expect a 25bp hike from the ECB next week... (Thu.) ...while the Bank of Japan could widen its tolerance band for the 10-year JGB yield (Thu.) Key Market Themes We think that several data releases …
15th July 2022
We expect Chile’s central bank to hike by 50bp (Wed. 23.00 BST) Inflation in Sweden probably rose further above target last month (Thurs. 07.00 BST) Clients can watch our Drop-In on the latest US CPI surprise here Key Market Themes While we expect …
13th July 2022
Consumer prices in the US are likely to have risen again in June (13.30 BST) Growth of exports out of China probably edged lower in June We expect interest rate hikes in Canada, New Zealand, Korea and Chile Key Market Themes While the euro ’s rapid fall …
12th July 2022
China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI might exceed 50 for the first time in four months (02.45 BST) Euro-zone inflation in June was probably a bit lower than consensus estimates (10.00 BST) ISM manufacturing index might provide further evidence of slowing US …
30th June 2022
We expect rate hikes next week in Norway, Mexico, Czechia, the Philippines and Egypt Headline CPI inflation in the UK may have risen above 9% in May... (Wed.) ...but it probably remained around 2.5% in Japan (Fri.) Key Market Themes The BoJ left policy …
17th June 2022
Bank of Japan may resist widening the tolerance band around its yield target, for now Final euro-zone inflation data will reveal the breadth of inflationary pressures there (10.00 BST) US industrial output probably rose at a healthy pace in May (14.15 …
16th June 2022
The PBOC may ease policy tomorrow with a 10bp cut to its MLF rate (02.20 BST) We expect the Fed to hike by 75bp (19.00 BST) We think Brazil’s central bank will raise rates by 50bp (22.30 BST) Key Market Themes While the twin sell-off in bond and equity …
14th June 2022
China’s inflation data may add to evidence that lockdowns were disinflationary (02.30 BST) High food and energy prices probably kept inflation above 8% in the US … (13.30 BST) … and elevated inflation probably weighed on consumer confidence in early June …
9th June 2022
We expect Poland’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 75bp The Reserve Bank of India may hike by another 50bp… (05.30 BST) …and clients can register for our post-RBI Drop-In here (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although we doubt it will appreciate …
7th June 2022
We think growth in US non-farm payrolls slowed in May but remained strong (Friday 3 rd June) We expect the RBA to raise its policy rate by 25bp, to 0.6% (Tuesday 7 th June) ECB may give more clues on its tightening plans at its June meeting (Thursday 9 th …
1st June 2022
We suspect that US non-farm payrolls climbed by 300,000 in May (Friday) We think euro-zone headline inflation rose further in May, to just below 8% (Tuesday) China’s PMIs probably increased but remained weak this month (Tuesday & Wednesday) Key Market …
27th May 2022
Headline CPI inflation in Japan probably rose above 2% in April (23.30 BST) We expect interest rate hikes in South Africa, the Philippines, and Egypt Clients can sign up for tomorrow’s Drop-In on commercial property here Key Market Themes The hawkish tone …
18th May 2022
China’s trade, credit and inflation data may reveal the impact of virus disruptions We think annual CPI inflation fell in the US in April, for the first time in eight months (Wed.) Clients can register for a Drop-In on our forecasts for global bonds, …
6th May 2022
German industrial production probably fell by as much as 2% in March (07.00 BST) We think non-farm payrolls rose by a solid 375,000 in April … (13.30 BST) … and clients can register for a Drop-In on the April US payrolls numbers here (15.00 BST) Key …
5th May 2022
Chinese activity data will reveal a sharp slowdown in March … (Mon.) … which reinforces our view that the PBOC will cut the Loan Prime Rate (Wed.) Register for our Drop-In on the key implications of the French election here Key Market Themes While the ECB …
14th April 2022
We expect Korea’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp (02.00 BST) Australia’s unemployment rate may have fallen to a multi-decade low in March (02.30 BST) We think the ECB will leave policy unchanged tomorrow (12.45 BST) Key Market Themes While …
13th April 2022
Euro-zone retail sales probably rose slightly in February (10.00 BST) We think Mexico’s inflation rose further in March, paving the way for a rate hike (12.00 BST) Canada’s federal budget may unveil a small increase in spending Key Market Themes We think …
6th April 2022
Hopes for a large support package from UK Chancellor Sunak may be disappointed… …even though inflation in the UK probably reached a 30-year high last month (07.00 GMT) Sign up for our Drop-In on the impact of war in Ukraine on commodity markets here Key …
22nd March 2022
Flash PMIs for March to give first steer on how the war in Ukraine has impacted DM economies UK chancellor may announce a small support package for households in the spring statement We expect Mexico’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 75bp on …
18th March 2022
We expect the Fed and the BoE to raise their policy rates by 25bp… (Wed. & Thu.) … and Brazil’s central bank to hike interest rates by 100bp, to 11.75% (Wed.) In contrast, policymakers in Japan, Russia and Turkey will probably leave rates unchanged Key …
11th March 2022
We think UK GDP will have reversed all of December’s drop in January (07.00 GMT) Higher oil prices probably weighed on US consumer confidence this month (15.00 GMT) Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Key Market Themes While the ECB …
10th March 2022
Omicron outbreak probably weighed on euro-zone retail sales in January (10.00 GMT) We think US non-farm payrolls rose by 600,000 last month (13.30 GMT) Read our latest research on the economic impact of the war in Ukraine here Key Market Themes So far, …
3rd March 2022
We expect New Zealand’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 25bp (02.00 GMT) Sign up to hear our take on South Africa’s upcoming budget here Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes While continued escalation of …
22nd February 2022
The German IfO Survey is likely to show continued price pressures (09.00 GMT) We expect Hungary’s central bank to raise its base rate by 50bp (13.00 GMT) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes We doubt that the rise in …
21st February 2022
FOMC minutes later on Wednesday may provide clues on the pace of rate hikes (19.00 GMT) The recovery in Australia’s labour market may have stalled in January (01.30 GMT) We think Turkey’s central bank will leave rates on hold on Thursday (11.00 GMT) Key …
16th February 2022
Fed minutes may shed more light on the likelihood of a 50bp rate hike in March (Wednesday) We think the UK labour market remained tight in December (Tuesday) We expect the PBOC to cut the rate on its medium-term lending facility by 10bp (Monday) Key …
11th February 2022
Romania’s central bank may raise its policy rate by 25bp, to 2.25% We expect Thailand’s central bank to stand pat throughout 2022 (07.00 GMT) Brazil’s inflation probably rose further last month (12.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Despite recent increases, we …
8th February 2022
We expect Poland’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 50bp to 2.75% We think that the US trade deficit widened in December (13.30 GMT) Find our macro forecasts in our latest Global Economic Outlook here Key Market Themes We don’t think government …
7th February 2022
We think euro-zone retail sales fell in December (10.00 GMT) The Omicron wave may have caused US payrolls to fall in January (13.30 GMT) Virus cases may have weighed on employment in Canada as well (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Today’s hawkish surprises …
3rd February 2022
We expect the Bank of England to raise Bank Rate by 25bp, to 0.5% (12.00 GMT) In contrast, the ECB will probably keep its policy settings unchanged (12.45 GMT) We think the US ISM services index dropped sharply last month (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes We …
2nd February 2022
We expect the RBA to announce an end to its bond purchases (00.30 GMT) Omicron cases may have weighed on UK households’ borrowing in December (09.30 GMT) The US ISM Manufacturing Index probably fell this month (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes While we think …
31st January 2022
GDP data for Germany may show that its economy contracted in Q4 (09.00 GMT) The Economic Sentiment Indicator for the euro-zone probably fell this month (10.00 GMT) We think Colombia’s central bank will increase the pace of its policy tightening (18.00 …
27th January 2022
Fed likely to hint that a first rate hike may be forthcoming in March (Wed. 19.00 GMT) We think US GDP grew by 4.6% annualised in Q4 (Thu. 13.30 GMT) We expect central banks in Chile and South Africa to hike rates further (Wed. & Thu.) Key Market Themes …
26th January 2022
Fed officials may issue a hawkish statement at the upcoming FOMC meeting (Wed.) We expect central banks in Chile, Colombia and South Africa to hike rates next week Annual US wage growth may have reached 5% in Q4 (Thu.) Key Market Themes Although we think …
21st January 2022
We expect UK retail sales to have fallen in December (Fri. 07.00 GMT) Japan’s headline inflation probably edged up to 0.8% last month (Thu. 23.30 GMT) Read our key calls for economies and markets in the year ahead here Key Market Themes For the first time …
20th January 2022
We expect China’s central bank to cut its 1-year Loan Prime Rate by 10bp (01.30 GMT) But we think that Turkey’s central bank will pause its easing cycle (11.00 GMT) We also expect interest rates to be left on hold in Indonesia, Malaysia and Norway Key …
19th January 2022
We think that UK inflation will hold steady at its 10-year high of 5.1% (07.00 GMT) We expect Canada’s inflation to have reached its highest level since 1991 (13.30 GMT) Register here for our webinar event “The World in 2022” Key Market Themes With …
18th January 2022
China’s economy probably failed to gain much momentum last quarter (Monday) The Bank of Japan may revise up its inflation forecasts at its policy meeting (Tuesday) We suspect that UK inflation remained above 5%, a 10-year high, last month (Tuesday) Key …
14th January 2022
We expect US retail sales fell slightly in December (13.30 GMT) We think that the UK economy expanded in November (07.00 GMT) China’s exports probably remained strong last month, while imports softened Key Market Themes The US dollar has started the year …
13th January 2022
We think that policymakers in China could deliver a surprise rate cut (Mon.) But the Czech central bank is likely to continue with its tightening cycle (Wed.) We forecast a strong rise in headline US durable goods orders (Thu.) Key Market Themes While the …
17th December 2021
UK retail sale probably rose significantly in November (07.00 GMT) Germany’s Ifo likely to have fallen again in December amid tighter restrictions (09.00 GMT) We expect Russia’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 75bp to 8.25% (10.30 GMT) Key Market …
16th December 2021
We think the BoE will keep policy on hold due to renewed COVID uncertainty (12.00 GMT) We expect the ECB will signal that net asset purchases may continue indefinitely (12.45 GMT) See Key Data & Events below for a full summary of central bank policy …
15th December 2021
We think US headline CPI inflation rose to just under 7% in November (13.30 GMT) UK GDP growth probably slowed in October (07.00 GMT) Peru’s central bank likely to hike rates by another 50bp, to 2.0% (23.00 GMT) Key Market Themes While the real has …
9th December 2021
We expect China’s trade surplus to reach a record high RBA not likely to make major policy changes this month, may taper in early 2022 (03.30 GMT) Industrial production in Germany probably declined again in October (07.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The recent …
6th December 2021
We expect the Caixin Services PMI to show activity slowed further in China (01.45 GMT) We think that unemployment in the euro-zone continued to edge lower (10.00 GMT) Output in Brazil probably rose a bit last quarter but remains very weak (12.00 GMT) Key …
1st December 2021
We think that China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI edged up in November … (01.45 GMT) … but the US ISM manufacturing index was probably broadly stable (15.00 GMT) Headline inflation in Switzerland likely to have fallen slightly last month (07.30 GMT) Key …
30th November 2021
