September’s fall in world trade volumes was a blow to hopes that the global economy may have reached a turning point. There are some signs of stabilisation in leading indicators of trade, and base effects should push the annual growth rate above zero …
26th November 2019
Lower government bond yields improved the relative valuation of commercial property markets for the third consecutive quarter. (See Chart 1.) Less than one fifth of markets look overvalued, with more than half of industrial markets fairly valued. Since …
21st November 2019
The year-on-year rate of EM export growth should turn positive in the coming months, but this will mainly reflect favourable base effects from the Asian electronics cycle rather than stronger underlying demand. The latest EM export data have been weak . …
19th November 2019
Our Trackers suggest that growth slowed across large parts of the emerging world in Q3. But aggregate EM growth is probably close to bottoming out and we expect that it will strengthen a little in 2020. We estimate that aggregate EM GDP growth eased to …
30th October 2019
Economic and financial vulnerabilities are generally low across much of the emerging world, but there are a handful of weak links. Argentina’s sovereign debt vulnerabilities remain high and, whichever direction the new president takes, we think that a …
29th October 2019
After a jump in July, world trade volumes rose again in August. But this is unlikely to be the start of a material recovery – indeed, most indicators point to subdued trade growth in the closing months of 2019. Recent data published by the CPB Netherlands …
28th October 2019
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth edged up at the end of last quarter due to a rebound in industrial activity. But the prop from industry should be short-lived, and with the recent boom in property construction levelling off, growth …
24th October 2019
The EM export recovery paused in August and September, although we think exports should still strengthen over the coming quarters. This isn’t because of developments in the trade war – the recent improvement in the mood music is unlikely to be a prelude …
17th October 2019
While world trade volumes rebounded in July, they only recovered ground lost the previous month. The big picture is that world trade is set to remain weak in the coming months as the global industrial downturn drags on. Data published this week by the CPB …
27th September 2019
The recent stabilisation in EM GDP growth has come alongside further evidence that solid consumer spending is helping to offset weakness in industry. We expect this trend to continue in the coming months. Our Tracker suggests that EM GDP expanded by …
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth remains resilient but has edged down slightly since the end of Q2. With property construction no longer accelerating and broader activity still under pressure, growth is likely to drop back further in …
23rd September 2019
EM exports stabilised in July and August but, with the latest round of US-China tariffs yet to feed through and global growth subdued, we expect EM export growth to remain weak in the coming quarters. While the dollar value of EM exports in the three …
18th September 2019
The raft of GDP figures published in the last few weeks suggest that, having slowed over most of the past year, aggregate EM growth ticked up in Q2. But activity is still soft and we expect that EM growth to remain weak over the next 12-18 months. Almost …
29th August 2019
World trade volumes contracted again in the second quarter, and forward-looking indicators suggest that trade growth is likely to stay subdued, just as the US-China trade war is heating up again. Data published last week by the CPB Netherlands Bureau …
27th August 2019
A second consecutive quarter of sharp falls in bond yields has driven improved valuations in 90 of the 93 markets that we cover. As a result, less than a third of all markets look overvalued, the lowest proportion since the end of 2017. With bond yields …
23rd August 2019
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth remained strong at the start of Q3. However, with external headwinds mounting and property development likely to moderate, economic activity looks set to slow before long . The CAP is our attempt to …
21st August 2019
The US-China trade war, which has now been running for over a year, has exerted an increasingly large drag on EM exports. But other factors including weak global demand have been bigger drivers of the slump in EM exports. With the global economy set to …
20th August 2019
Having slowed sharply in Q1 and at the start of Q2, it looks like EM GDP growth strengthened a little in May and June. Even so, with China’s slowdown set to resume and the global economy more generally faring poorly, aggregate EM growth will remain very …
26th July 2019
May’s small rise in world trade volumes added to evidence that trade growth may have begun to stabilise following the slump that began in Q4 last year. But we see little sign of a recovery coming any time soon. Data published yesterday by the CPB …
Economic and financial vulnerabilities remain low across much of the emerging world. But banking sector vulnerabilities are high in Turkey and China. And we are now explicitly forecasting a sovereign debt default in Argentina. Sovereign debt risks are …
24th July 2019
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth jumped at the end of last quarter. But data issues raise questions about the true extent of the pick-up. And mounting domestic and external headwinds offer reasons to remain downbeat on the outlook. The …
The US-China trade war truce, coming alongside Mercosur countries and Vietnam securing trade deals with the EU, has eased some of the worst fears about protectionism. But it’s far from certain that these trade deals will clear legislative hurdles. And …
18th July 2019
EM GDP growth slowed in Q1 to rates only seen a handful times in the last two decades. And while there are signs of a turnaround in some of the worst-performing economies, growth in the emerging world as a whole is likely to remain subdued over the next …
28th June 2019
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) continues to suggest that economic growth has stabilised in recent months, with stronger construction activity helping to mask a slowdown in other sectors. But with headwinds from US tariffs still likely to intensify later …
26th June 2019
After rounding off a weak first quarter, world trade volumes fell in April. As the global economy slows further, world trade growth is likely to be sluggish, almost irrespective of developments in the trade war. Data published today by the CPB Netherlands …
25th June 2019
