Overview – We expect the mild recession in the euro-zone to drag on for the rest of the year. The drop-back in energy prices will provide some relief for households and companies but will be partly offset by governments withdrawing policy support. …
21st June 2023
Note: We’re talking inflation and the BOJ, slowing Indian growth, and regional monetary easing in our Asia Drop-In on Thursday, 22 nd June. Register now . Overview – With inflation remaining very sticky, we now expect the RBA to lift the cash rate to a …
20th June 2023
Note: We’ll be discussing the UK’s economic, housing market and policy outlook in light of the BoE’s June rate decision in an online briefing on 22nd June at 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST . Register now . Overview – As the UK’s recent problem of higher inflation …
19th June 2023
Click here to read full text. Overview – Sub-Saharan Africa is set to record its weakest growth this year, outside of the pandemic, since 2016 as the drags from domestic headwinds are exacerbated by a less favourable external environment. Our GDP growth …
13th June 2023
Overview – The RBI’s tightening cycle has come to an end and, as the economy comes off the boil and inflation settles at comfortable rates, we think interest rates cuts will materialise in early 2024. Over the longer term, India’s growth prospects are …
12th June 2023
Overview – The economy held up better at the start of the year than we had anticipated, but we still expect it to enter a recession in the second half of the year. Even though underlying inflation probably hasn’t peaked yet, we suspect the Bank of Japan …
Overview – The region’s strong start to the year is unlikely to be sustained and we expect growth across Latin America to come in weaker than most expect this year and next. Inflation will continue to fall, but core price pressures are likely to remain …
8th June 2023
Overview – Poor affordability and a weakening economy will weigh on housing market activity this year, causing home sales to remain low over the next few quarters. While house prices increased in February and March, we expect to see further modest …
1st June 2023
Overview – Higher-than-expected core inflation means interest rates are now set to be higher for longer and we still think the economy will enter a mild recession later this year. That’s not a great backdrop for commercial property and yields will need …
30th May 2023
The recent resilience in economic activity and stubbornness of inflation is raising market rate expectations, gilt yields, UK equities and the pound. And there is a growing risk that interest rates rise above 4.50% and/or stay high for longer. But we …
26th April 2023
Overview – While house price declines have slowed and economic activity has proven more resilient than expected over the three months since our last Outlook , we are sticking to our forecast that house prices will fall by 12% in total. Persistent core …
Overview – We have made substantial downgrades to our metro-level forecasts this quarter. The outlook for office-based employment growth has been hit by tech sector struggles, weighing on demand in many western markets. We have also pushed through bigger …
14th April 2023
The outlook for economic activity remains poor due to the impact of high inflation, tight monetary policy and weak external demand. Sweden is already in a recession, not least thanks to the slump in its property sector. And while Norway and Switzerland …
We expect a surge in completions and a slowdown in employment growth to push vacancy substantially higher in all markets over the next few years. That will slam the brakes on rental growth, causing an outright fall in several of the major markets as well …
12th April 2023
Overview – We have made substantial downgrades to our forecasts this quarter. Aside from their direct impact through tighter lending conditions, last month’s regional bank failures appear to be helping crystallise some of the risks to commercial real …
6th April 2023
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – Aggregate EM GDP growth will be much stronger this year than last, but that’s almost entirely a result of China’s reopening rebound. Growth in most other EMs will be weaker and will generally disappoint consensus …
4th April 2023
Overview – Property values fell sharply in Scandinavia and Switzerland last year, but with valuations still stretched and financing set to remain challenging, we think yields will climb higher. And with economic activity weakening and supply increasing, …
Overview – We expect most commodity prices to drift lower in the near term as advanced economies enter mild recessions and financial market risk aversion persists. A stronger US dollar will also weigh on prices. However, later in the year, prices should …
31st March 2023
Despite only being three months old, 2023 has already seen several macro narratives play out in markets. “Soft landing” optimism in January was followed by a “no landing” narrative in February which has given way to concerns about a banking crisis in …
Overview – Homegrown problems in Sub-Saharan African economies exacerbated by external headwinds are likely to curtail growth this year. We think that regional GDP will expand by 2.3%, which is well below the consensus. Public debt problems will remain …
Overview – Emerging Europe has seen less steep falls in values than elsewhere so far, but will not be immune in 2023. Higher interest rates and economic weakness mean these markets will have a challenging year and recent financial disruption only …
The recent turmoil in the global banking sector have sent ripples through financial markets. So far, a full-blown financial crisis doesn’t seem likely to us, although clearly any escalation would add to risky assets’ worries. But even if that is avoided, …
Click here to read the full report Overview – GDP growth in Latin America will be among the weakest of any EM region this year and next, and is likely to disappoint consensus expectations. Persistently high inflation has prompted us to push back our …
30th March 2023
The dollar’s February rebound has been cut short by turmoil in the US regional banking sector, but we continue to think the greenback will make one final push higher as advanced economies fall into recession and risk sentiment deteriorates. Although the …
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – The strongest headwind for the global economy has shifted from an energy crisis and the related squeeze on real incomes to a potential banking crisis and associated drag on credit. Since banks are relatively …
Overview – There are encouraging signs that the energy crisis is receding, the worst of the downturn is passing and that inflation has peaked across the region, but this year will still be challenging. We expect below-consensus GDP growth in most …
Note: Join our 6 th April online briefing all about the risks to EMs from banking turmoil. Register now . Overview – Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, in 2023. IMF deals will help to …
Overview – The economy made a strong start to 2023, but we continue to expect a moderate recession this year as high interest rates feed through and the banking issues in the US weigh on exports. The downturn will help to pull CPI inflation to 2% by the …
29th March 2023
Overview – Acute bank stress will prompt a further tightening in credit conditions, which leaves us even more convinced that the economy will fall into recession this year. With core inflation remaining stickier than we had originally expected, however, …
Overview – Much of the economic boost from China’s reopening has already happened. While there is still some upside to consumer and services activity, weakened balance sheets and limited policy support mean the recovery will probably fizzle out by …
While CPI inflation will fall from 10.4% to around 3.5% this year, we think a recession involving a peak-to-trough fall in real GDP of around 1.0% is needed to ensure that domestic price pressures weaken to levels consistent with the 2.0% inflation …
28th March 2023
Overview – The euro-zone economy is set to perform much worse than consensus forecasts suggest over the next two years, with a recession looking likely. That is mainly because monetary policy and bank lending conditions are tightening. We expect …
Click here to read the full report Overview – With valuations still highly stretched and rent growth likely to slow as the region falls into recession, we think capital values will fall further in 2023. While the 4.5% decline forecast at the all-property …
24th March 2023
Overview – High interest rates and weak export demand will weigh on the region’s economies this year, and we expect below-trend and below-consensus growth in most countries in 2023. The exceptions are China, which has rebounded strongly on the back of a …
Overview – The RBI’s tightening cycle is in its final throes and, as the economy softens and inflation drops back to within the central bank’s 2-6% target range, we think rates cuts will materialise in early 2024. Over the longer term, India’s growth …
20th March 2023
Click here to read the full report Overview – Both the RBA and the RBNZ have more work to do to rein in the recent surge in inflation. That aggressive monetary tightening is starting to take its toll on economic activity and we expect GDP growth to slow …
Overview – The economy is on the brink of a mild recession but with underlying inflation still accelerating, we expect new Bank of Japan Governor Ueda to end Yield Curve Control at the upcoming meeting in April. Key Forecasts Table Domestic Demand – We …
13th March 2023
This inaugural Climate Economics Outlook establishes our bottom-up long-term forecasts for greenhouse gas emissions for the world’s largest polluters. These forecasts will serve as a baseline for future analysis of the impacts of alternative climate …
7th March 2023
Overview – The surge in yields seen in 2022 will not be repeated in 2023. With much of the repricing occurring last year we think all-property equivalent yields will see only a modest rise of 30bps this year. But rents will be hit, as the dual drags of …
24th February 2023
The big sell-off in both equities and bonds that was a feature of 2022 has arguably created scope for them to fare a bit better in the coming years by reducing their valuations. Nonetheless, we don’t think they will provide spectacular returns over the …
21st February 2023
Click here to read full report. The Ukraine war has added to the forces reshaping the global economic system into two US-led and China-led economic spheres. While the economic diversity of the US-bloc should help it to adapt relatively easily, the …
13th February 2023
Overview – Housing market activity is likely to recover only gradually from its current lows, which means we think 2023 will be the weakest year for sales since 2012. Affordability will remain stretched by past standards, especially in the first half of …
10th February 2023
While an improvement in appetite for risk has fuelled a strong start to 2023 by UK equities and sterling, we doubt this will remain a source of support as recessions in the US, the UK and the euro-zone economies take hold. We anticipate the FTSE 100 …
30th January 2023
Overview – 2023 will be the most difficult year for the housing market since 2008. Mortgage rates remain very high by the standards of recent years and can’t drop materially until the Bank of England shifts from raising interest rates to cutting them. …
26th January 2023
Click here to read the full report. We now expect a small fall in rents next year in a handful of metros as affordability constraints and falling employment take their toll on demand. At the same time, a wave of completions in some of the markets with the …
29th December 2022
Click here for full report: Overview – Consistent with our national office story, we expect a few years of insipid rent growth and returns for most US office markets. Expensive coastal metros will continue to see weak demand as high rates of sublease …
23rd December 2022
Click here to read the full report. Table of Key Forecasts Overview – The sharp slowdown in EM GDP growth seen in 2022 is likely to be followed by further weakness across most of the emerging world in 2023. Sluggish growth and falling inflation will …
20th December 2022
Click here to read the full report. Overview – We think the euro-zone is now at the start of a recession, driven by high inflation, tightening financial conditions and weak external demand, and anticipate two quarters of contraction followed by a gradual …
19th December 2022
Click here to read the full report Overview – The sharp rise in interest rates this year has prompted a price correction, which is now coming through in valuation-based indices. Combined with the mild recession we are forecasting for 2023, this will weigh …
Click here to read the full report. Overview – The challenging external backdrop means that growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to slow in 2023, and by much more than most expect. Currencies are likely to weaken and public debt fears will grow, …
