Overview – We have generally revised down our growth forecasts for this year and next. Weakness in the euro-zone will remain a drag on export sectors across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the coming quarters, while tight policy will take some heat …
17th September 2024
Overview – There are tentative signs of improvement in the investment market, but we continue to think refinancing requirements will weigh on transactions. We still think appraisal-based valuations need to adjust further and that cap rates will increase …
12th September 2024
Overview – The economy is on the mend and underlying inflation seems to be levelling off around the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Accordingly, we still expect a final rate hike in October. But as inflation falls below target next year and the spring wage …
5th September 2024
Overview – Commercial property yields and capital values have stabilised in recent months, which has encouraged investors to dip their toes back into the sector. But the recovery is set to be a weak one. Admittedly, we expect rental growth will be a …
22nd August 2024
We still think that a fading in services inflation and below-target CPI inflation will prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 5.25% now to 3.00% by the end of 2025, rather than to 4.00% as investors anticipate. That explains why we think …
31st July 2024
Overview – House prices will probably remain flat for the rest of 2024, but lower mortgage rates will provide scope for prices to beat expectations next year. Indeed, our forecast that Bank Rate will be lowered by more than investors anticipate suggests …
22nd July 2024
Overview – We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, but not by enough to fully offset the effects of mortgage rate ‘lock-in’. As a result, although we expect existing home sales to rebound, we forecast that they will still be a muted 4.8 million even …
16th July 2024
The US dollar has edged higher over the past quarter or so, driven by the twin tailwinds of rising Treasury yields and US equity outperformance. We think these factors may continue to support the greenback over the near term, and the looming prospect of a …
3rd July 2024
Across the 17 metros we cover, most will see higher vacancy over the next year or so due to a surge in completions. Atlanta and Houston will be the key exceptions. There new construction has plummeted in response to falling apartment values and higher …
2nd July 2024
We continue to expect equities to outperform most other assets through the end of next year, as the hype around AI builds and lower inflation facilitates more monetary easing in some places than investors are discounting. The tech-heavy US stock market …
1st July 2024
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – The global economy seems to be heading into recovery mode as the adverse effects of the previous surge in inflation subside. Real incomes are recovering in most advanced economies and China is feeling the benefits …
27th June 2024
The Emerging Markets Economic Outlook contains analysis and forecasts for the seven emerging regions we cover: China, India, other Emerging Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe, the Middle East & North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. It also contains …
Overview – Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years, helped by a more favourable external environment as well as falling inflation and interest rates. But tight fiscal policy will constrain the recovery and our …
Overview – We forecast most commodities prices to fall next year – despite falling interest rates and faster global GDP growth – as numerous supply constraints ease and a crunch in Chinese construction begins to cloud the outlook for industrial metals. …
Overview – Below potential GDP growth and falling core inflation will persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further, with the policy rate settling at 2.5% next year. Lower interest rates should, in turn, drive a recovery in GDP growth from …
26th June 2024
Overview – Activity has slowed to a standstill in both countries. Although output growth should gather momentum going forward, it will remain below its pre-pandemic average. However, with underlying inflation still running well above target, central banks …
Overview – We expect core inflation to be back to the 2% target by early next year, allowing the Fed to begin cutting interest rates from this September. GDP growth will remain a little lacklustre this year but, as the shift in monetary policy begins to …
25th June 2024
Overview – China’s economy is on course to expand by 5.5% this year, buoyed by policy support and strong exports. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook. Domestic Demand – A ramp up in fiscal spending should boost domestic demand in …
Overview – The next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4 th July suggest will be a Labour one, will benefit from a combination of lower inflation, lower interest rates and faster economic growth than most are expecting. We think that a …
The office sector faces another two years of value falls, led down by Seattle and San Francisco, where cumulative declines will be around 25%-30%. But our latest forecasts highlight the brighter spots in the South. Thanks to a smaller impact from remote …
20th June 2024
Overview – The economies of Latin America started the year on the front foot, but the strong growth rates recorded in early 2024 are unlikely to be sustained and growth in many parts of the region is likely to be soft in the coming quarters. This is …
Overview – We expect economic growth in most countries in Asia to slow in the second half of 2024, as tighter fiscal policy, high interest rates and weaker global growth all weigh on demand. Inflation is back to target in most countries and likely to …
Overview – The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in core economies, notably Germany, while the …
Overview – Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s third largest economy within the next couple …
Overview – Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the outlook will become more challenging from 2025 as …
18th June 2024
NB. Our new and improved interactive Europe Commercial Property dashboard, home to key macro and commercial real estate forecasts, can be found here . Overview – The price correction showed signs of stabilisation in early 2024, but we think further, …
13th June 2024
NB. Our new and improved interactive US Commercial Property dashboard, home to key macro and commercial real estate forecasts, can be found here . Overview – The market remains in the doldrums, with the mood negative and activity weak. We think this …
11th June 2024
Overview – Activity strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1 and we expect this to be sustained over the coming quarters, with GDP growth in most economies exceeding consensus expectations in 2024. This is likely to be accompanied by renewed inflation …
6th June 2024
Overview – A rebound in real household incomes should ensure that the recent slump in output should turn into above-trend GDP growth of 1% over the next couple of years. Regardless, inflation will continue to slow as the influence of the previous import …
4th June 2024
Overview – Capital values for most property sectors are now close to bottoming out, but with yields set for a period of stability the recovery will be modest by past standards. We expect all-property total returns to average 7.5% p.a. over 2024-28. That’s …
30th May 2024
While expectations for interest rate cuts in the UK have been pared back in recent months amid growing inflation concerns in the US, we think the markets have gone too far in concluding that UK interest rates will still be as high as 4.00% by the end of …
29th April 2024
You can use the "Table of Contents" feature, found on the top right of the webpage, to navigate this publication quickly. Summary: The rally in equities over the past year or so, driven in no small part by hype around AI, has left stock markets looking …
24th April 2024
Note: We’ll be covering our views on residential market winners and losers in both the for-sale and rental markets in a Drop-In Tuesday 16th April 1100 EST/1600 BST . Register here for the 20-minute session. Our latest office metro forecasts highlight …
8th April 2024
Note: We’ll be covering our views on residential market winners and losers in both the for-sale and rental markets in a Drop-In Tuesday 16th April 1100 EDT/1600 BST . Register here for the 20-minute session. We expect a surge in completions and a …
4th April 2024
We expect equities to outperform most other assets as a bubble fuelled by AI-enthusiasm continues to inflate, supported by a backdrop of resilient economic growth and monetary easing cycles. In particular, we expect US equities to continue to lead the …
The US dollar has started the year on the front foot as US growth and inflation again surprised to the upside, prompting the Fed to (again) take a more hawkish stance than other major central banks. In our view, a continued rise in US Treasury yields – …
Overview – We expect most commodity prices to fall over the next couple of years as greater supply enters the market. Industrial metals are the exception, China’s policymakers have stepped up stimulus in recent months and this should continue to support …
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – GDP growth across most of the emerging world will fall short of consensus expectations this year. But there will be key bright spots such as India and Taiwan. While disinflation is likely to proceed more slowly from here …
3rd April 2024
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – In the quarters ahead, economic activity in most of the world will be characterised by soft landings. We expect GDP growth to be below trend, but meaningful recessions should be avoided and the US will continue to …
28th March 2024
Overview – With inflation easing and domestic demand struggling in much of emerging Asia, central banks are likely to start cutting interest rates soon. The one remaining concern for policymakers is the fear of further falls in their currencies. But this …
27th March 2024
Overview – China’s economy has fared better recently and policy support is likely to remain a near-term prop to growth. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook. Domestic Demand – State investment can make up for lacklustre consumption, …
Overview – Sub-Saharan Africa will record a pick-up in growth over the coming years, helped by an improving external environment reducing the threat of further large currency falls as well as sovereign defaults. Monetary and fiscal policy will generally …
Overview – Australia’s GDP growth will remain soft throughout the first half of the year so the recent stalling in inflation should be followed by a renewed moderation. However, as the labour market remains very tight, we’re pushing back our forecast for …
Overview – We expect weak GDP growth of 0.8% this year, and a fall in inflation to less than 2% next year, to persuade the Bank of Canada to cut its policy rate back to 2.5% by mid-2025. A recovery in productivity and looser policy should drive a rebound …
26th March 2024
Overview – Economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) ended last year in stagnation, but headwinds to growth are lifting and we think that 2024 will be a year of modest recovery. Inflation has fallen sharply in recent months but in some parts of the …
This second edition of our annual Climate Economics Outlook updates our long-term emissions forecasting framework to incorporate our latest macroeconomic and energy views. Note: You can create your own emissions scenarios with our interactive Emissions …
Overview – Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will take hold in the coming quarters, growth will fall short of consensus expectations. The disinflation process has largely run its course and the strength …
Overview – Low oil output in the Gulf will constrain GDP growth over the first half of this year. But as this reverses, growth will pick up and by more than most expect. Elsewhere in Middle East and North Africa, external financial support has mostly …
25th March 2024
Overview – After having been too high for the past three years, inflation in the UK will be too low for the next three years, and much lower than in the US and the euro-zone. Not only do we think that CPI inflation will fall from 3.4% in February to below …
Note: We will be discussing the outlook for residential markets across the US in a 20-minute online briefing on Tuesday April 16th. Find out more here . Overview – This year is being flagged by many as the year the recovery starts, but there is still a …
22nd March 2024
