Overview – We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, dropping below 6% in 2026. Lower borrowing costs will breathe some life into the market, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate 'lock-in' will continue to hold back …
10th October 2024
Apartment markets are turning a corner, and we now expect the sector to outperform over the five year forecast. As new supply drops back from the second half of next year, we expect a mixture of Southern metros and the major markets to see the greatest …
1st October 2024
Overview – We are not expecting the planned fiscal policies of the government to derail the economy – we expect GDP to grow by 1.0% this year and by a decent 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026. Instead, the main influence of the government’s plans to raise public …
Overview – A pivot towards fiscal and monetary stimulus should support China’s growth in the near-term. But the economy continues to be propped up by investment, still elevated levels of construction, and the willingness of trading partners to allow …
27th September 2024
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – The global economy has hit a soft patch with the euro-zone virtually stagnant, the US labour market flagging and China rationing its policy stimulus. We expect this weakness to persist around the turn of the year …
26th September 2024
Further out, our base case is that the combination of a generally benign global economic backdrop and a dovish Fed leads to some further US dollar weakness over the next six to twelve months. But given the extent of Fed rate cuts now discounted in money …
We expect equities to fare best among the major asset classes we track through the end of 2025, as the AI bubble reinflates. We suspect government and corporate bonds will generally do less well, despite monetary easing. But we still think they’ll provide …
25th September 2024
Overview – With the inflation battle all but won, weak GDP growth will force the Bank of Canada into more aggressive action, with a couple of 50bp interest rate cuts to end this year. We expect the Bank to adopt a more measured pace of loosening in 2025, …
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – Aggregate EM growth is entering a softer patch, despite the tailwind from the Fed’s easing cycle. Growth concerns will prompt central banks in much of Asia to cut interest rates. But stubborn inflation pressures elsewhere …
Overview – A combination of falling inflation and looser monetary policy should help growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But tight fiscal policy will constrain the recovery and our growth forecasts sit below the consensus. …
Overview – A tight labour market and elevated public demand will keep the RBA from loosening policy before early-2025. Moreover, we expect the forthcoming easing cycle to be short-lived by past standards. By contrast, the more pressing need to stem the …
Overview – Prospects for supply continue to dominate the near-term outlook. This is particularly the case for energy markets, where a gradual unwinding of OPEC+’s voluntary production cuts and looming ramp-up in LNG exports from Qatar and the US are …
24th September 2024
Overview – With inflation normalising due to improving supply, the Fed is in the fortuitous position of being able to lower interest rates even though economic growth remains solid and the unemployment rate is still relatively low. Despite the downshift …
23rd September 2024
Overview – We are expecting another year of below-trend economic growth in 2025 across Asia, as subdued exports, worsening labour markets and tighter fiscal policy weigh on demand. Inflation is back to target nearly everywhere. With growth set to struggle …
After two disappointing years, recent data suggest Europe’s commercial real estate market is stabilising. But will recovery follow and how strong will it be? Join our 20-minute online session on Wednesday 25th September at 10:00 BST as we discuss the …
Offices are still in for a tough few years, with markets like San Francisco, LA and Seattle likely to come out of the downturn with values down 55% or more from their 2019 peaks. However, there are markets, predominantly in the South, where rising office …
20th September 2024
Overview – Tight policy and deteriorating terms of trade will keep growth across Latin America subdued and we think that the region will underperform other parts of the emerging world – as well as consensus expectations – over the next couple of years. …
19th September 2024
Overview – Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen sharply in 2025 as oil output cuts are unwound. But lower oil prices will prompt a turn to fiscal consolidation in most of the Gulf, causing growth in non-oil sectors to slow. Elsewhere, …
Note: This Outlook was originally published on 17th September . It was updated on 1st October to reflect a revision to our ECB interest rate view . Overview – The euro-zone appears to have lost some momentum and is likely to remain sluggish in the coming …
18th September 2024
Overview – The economy is cooling but remains primed to grow by 6-6.5% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy in the next couple of years. Headline CPI inflation is likely to remain …
Overview – We have generally revised down our growth forecasts for this year and next. Weakness in the euro-zone will remain a drag on export sectors across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the coming quarters, while tight policy will take some heat …
17th September 2024
Overview – There are tentative signs of improvement in the investment market, but we continue to think refinancing requirements will weigh on transactions. We still think appraisal-based valuations need to adjust further and that cap rates will increase …
12th September 2024
Overview – The economy is on the mend and underlying inflation seems to be levelling off around the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Accordingly, we still expect a final rate hike in October. But as inflation falls below target next year and the spring wage …
5th September 2024
Overview – Commercial property yields and capital values have stabilised in recent months, which has encouraged investors to dip their toes back into the sector. But the recovery is set to be a weak one. Admittedly, we expect rental growth will be a …
22nd August 2024
We still think that a fading in services inflation and below-target CPI inflation will prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 5.25% now to 3.00% by the end of 2025, rather than to 4.00% as investors anticipate. That explains why we think …
31st July 2024
Overview – House prices will probably remain flat for the rest of 2024, but lower mortgage rates will provide scope for prices to beat expectations next year. Indeed, our forecast that Bank Rate will be lowered by more than investors anticipate suggests …
22nd July 2024
Overview – We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, but not by enough to fully offset the effects of mortgage rate ‘lock-in’. As a result, although we expect existing home sales to rebound, we forecast that they will still be a muted 4.8 million even …
16th July 2024
The US dollar has edged higher over the past quarter or so, driven by the twin tailwinds of rising Treasury yields and US equity outperformance. We think these factors may continue to support the greenback over the near term, and the looming prospect of a …
3rd July 2024
Across the 17 metros we cover, most will see higher vacancy over the next year or so due to a surge in completions. Atlanta and Houston will be the key exceptions. There new construction has plummeted in response to falling apartment values and higher …
2nd July 2024
We continue to expect equities to outperform most other assets through the end of next year, as the hype around AI builds and lower inflation facilitates more monetary easing in some places than investors are discounting. The tech-heavy US stock market …
1st July 2024
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – The global economy seems to be heading into recovery mode as the adverse effects of the previous surge in inflation subside. Real incomes are recovering in most advanced economies and China is feeling the benefits …
27th June 2024
The Emerging Markets Economic Outlook contains analysis and forecasts for the seven emerging regions we cover: China, India, other Emerging Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe, the Middle East & North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. It also contains …
Overview – Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years, helped by a more favourable external environment as well as falling inflation and interest rates. But tight fiscal policy will constrain the recovery and our …
Overview – We forecast most commodities prices to fall next year – despite falling interest rates and faster global GDP growth – as numerous supply constraints ease and a crunch in Chinese construction begins to cloud the outlook for industrial metals. …
Overview – Below potential GDP growth and falling core inflation will persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further, with the policy rate settling at 2.5% next year. Lower interest rates should, in turn, drive a recovery in GDP growth from …
26th June 2024
Overview – Activity has slowed to a standstill in both countries. Although output growth should gather momentum going forward, it will remain below its pre-pandemic average. However, with underlying inflation still running well above target, central banks …
Overview – We expect core inflation to be back to the 2% target by early next year, allowing the Fed to begin cutting interest rates from this September. GDP growth will remain a little lacklustre this year but, as the shift in monetary policy begins to …
25th June 2024
Overview – China’s economy is on course to expand by 5.5% this year, buoyed by policy support and strong exports. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook. Domestic Demand – A ramp up in fiscal spending should boost domestic demand in …
Overview – The next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4 th July suggest will be a Labour one, will benefit from a combination of lower inflation, lower interest rates and faster economic growth than most are expecting. We think that a …
The office sector faces another two years of value falls, led down by Seattle and San Francisco, where cumulative declines will be around 25%-30%. But our latest forecasts highlight the brighter spots in the South. Thanks to a smaller impact from remote …
20th June 2024
Overview – The economies of Latin America started the year on the front foot, but the strong growth rates recorded in early 2024 are unlikely to be sustained and growth in many parts of the region is likely to be soft in the coming quarters. This is …
Overview – We expect economic growth in most countries in Asia to slow in the second half of 2024, as tighter fiscal policy, high interest rates and weaker global growth all weigh on demand. Inflation is back to target in most countries and likely to …
Overview – The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in core economies, notably Germany, while the …
Overview – Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s third largest economy within the next couple …
Overview – Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the outlook will become more challenging from 2025 as …
18th June 2024
NB. Our new and improved interactive Europe Commercial Property dashboard, home to key macro and commercial real estate forecasts, can be found here . Overview – The price correction showed signs of stabilisation in early 2024, but we think further, …
13th June 2024
NB. Our new and improved interactive US Commercial Property dashboard, home to key macro and commercial real estate forecasts, can be found here . Overview – The market remains in the doldrums, with the mood negative and activity weak. We think this …
11th June 2024
Overview – Activity strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1 and we expect this to be sustained over the coming quarters, with GDP growth in most economies exceeding consensus expectations in 2024. This is likely to be accompanied by renewed inflation …
6th June 2024
Overview – A rebound in real household incomes should ensure that the recent slump in output should turn into above-trend GDP growth of 1% over the next couple of years. Regardless, inflation will continue to slow as the influence of the previous import …
4th June 2024
Overview – Capital values for most property sectors are now close to bottoming out, but with yields set for a period of stability the recovery will be modest by past standards. We expect all-property total returns to average 7.5% p.a. over 2024-28. That’s …
30th May 2024
