Filtered by Topic: Monetary Policy Use setting Monetary Policy
Overview – China’s economy will continue to beat most expectations in the near term, as households spend more freely. But momentum will soften during the second half of the year as props from stimulus and exports fade. Consumer Spending – Household …
21st January 2021
Overview – With additional large-scale fiscal stimulus likely to offset the near-term drag on activity stemming from the surge in COVID-19 cases – and the vaccination effort likely to reach critical mass by mid-year – we expect GDP growth to be 6.5% this …
19th January 2021
Overview – Our view that the economy will return to its pre-pandemic size in Q1 2022 and that it won’t be permanently smaller due to the pandemic is a more optimistic take than that of most forecasters. It implies that the government doesn’t need to …
Overview - The recovery in GDP and employment in both Australia and New Zealand is set to continue surprising to the upside. As such, we expect the RBA to stop its QE programme in April. Meanwhile, we estimate that New Zealand’s economy has already …
18th January 2021
Overview – Despite a rockier start to 2021 than we previously anticipated, we continue to expect the economy to recover strongly from the second quarter onwards, as the vaccine rollout allows restrictions to be lifted. Our forecasts for growth of 4.6% …
14th January 2021
Overview – The drop in new COVID-19 cases and the resulting scaling back of containment measures in India has provided a much-needed boost to the economy, and an effective vaccine will further support the recovery in 2021 and 2022. But even widespread …
11th January 2021
After having been hit particularly hard during the COVID-19 crisis, UK assets are well placed to perform much better now that COVID-19 vaccines are brightening the economic outlook. Indeed, the combination of a decent economic recovery and continued …
24th November 2020
Overview – The outlook for most commercial property sectors was already fragile and this has only been dampened by the second lockdown. Although transactions are set to pick up next year, we think property yields will edge higher and that all-property …
20th November 2020
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – The speed and strength of economic recoveries in emerging markets will continue to vary enormously by country, with China and some other parts of Asia leading and India, South Africa and much of Latin America lagging. …
23rd October 2020
Overview – Recoveries across Sub-Saharan Africa will be weak, with the region’s three largest economies – Nigeria, South Africa and Angola – set to fare particularly badly. A rebound in tourism sectors has been delayed, low oil prices will weigh on growth …
22nd October 2020
Overview – Fresh virus outbreaks and tighter containment measures mean that the economies of Emerging Europe are likely to suffer a fresh downturn in Q4, but we still think that the region will bounce back more strongly from the crisis than many other …
Overview – The picture has brightened for Latin America as new COVID-19 cases have fallen from their peaks, which should allow governments to ease restrictions and provide a boost to economic recoveries. Even so, with the number of new cases still very …
21st October 2020
Overview - Australia and New Zealand have had far greater success in containing the virus than most other large advanced economies. Coupled with huge fiscal support, that means that the recovery in economic activity could surprise to the upside next year. …
15th October 2020
Download the pdf for the full Outlook Overview – China has become the first major economy to return to its pre-virus growth path, thanks to its rapid containment of COVID-19 and effective stimulus response. The rebound initially leaned heavily on …
12th October 2020
Overview With the virus under control in most of the region, Emerging Asia is bouncing back from the crisis faster than other parts of the world. But the pace of recovery is uneven. China is leading the way. In the countries hit worst economically, the …
8th October 2020
Overview – Japan’s success in containing the virus without imposing draconian restrictions on activity should enable a faster return to pre-virus levels of output than in many major economies. We expect GDP to rise by 3.5% next year, after this year’s …
Overview – The continued rapid spread of COVID-19 in India and the need for prolonged containment measures has plunged the economy into a double-digit contraction this year. A tepid fiscal response means the recovery will underwhelm too. The dire economic …
1st October 2020
Overview – India’s failure to contain the coronavirus and the government’s underwhelming policy response mean the economy will suffer its largest drop in annual output on record this year. In addition, the recovery is likely to be one of the weakest among …
7th July 2020
Overview - The restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling at a double-digit rate in Australia and New Zealand in Q2. While activity will bounce back over the coming months, unemployment is set to surge and …
20th April 2020
Overview – Lockdowns will soon be imposed across much of Japan, triggering a decline of more than 10% in economic activity this quarter. The government’s latest fiscal package is intended to help firms stay afloat and to maintain employment while …
8th April 2020
We have compressed this edition of the Outlook to focus it on the most timely indicators. Overview – Strict containment measures in response to the coronavirus outbreak in India will have severe economic repercussions. We think the economy will grow by …
2nd April 2020
Overview – We think the economy has turned a corner and that GDP growth will beat the consensus forecast by accelerating from 1.0% this year to 1.8% next year. Of course, the lingering uncertainty over the UK’s future relationship with the EU will hold …
28th January 2020
We think growth and inflation will be below consensus in Switzerland and the Nordics this year. Switzerland is most exposed to the prolonged manufacturing recession in Germany and inflation there is likely to be close to zero. Meanwhile, we think the …
22nd January 2020
Overview – Australia’s house prices may rise by 8% this year but consumers are still reeling under high debt loads. With growth set to fall short of potential, we still expect unemployment to rise further which should weigh on wage growth and underlying …
16th January 2020
We expect most of the 2020s to be characterised by slow growth and very low inflation as persistently weak productivity growth leaves the developed world looking distinctly Japanese. But technological developments should ultimately bear fruit and we …
10th January 2020
Overview – After a year to forget in 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more effective measures to deal with the malaise in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a healthier pace in 2020. And with core inflation …
9th January 2020
Overview – The sales tax hike has not been as damaging as many had feared. But we remain more pessimistic about the outlook for global growth and domestic investment than most. That explains why we expect GDP to contract by 0.2% this year rather than …
8th January 2020
Overview – Although trade tensions and the presidential election remain key downside risks, we expect looser financial conditions to drive an acceleration in GDP growth from the second half of next year onwards. We forecast that GDP growth will be 1.9% in …
16th December 2019
Overview – After a weak 2019, we expect that growth across most of Latin America will improve next year. That said, our forecasts for the regions two biggest economies – Brazil and Mexico – are below consensus. And Colombia and Argentina will miss out on …
16th October 2019
Overview – Looser policy will support stronger economic growth in Russia, as well as in Turkey (so long as US sanctions don’t get much worse), in the coming quarters. In contrast, the economies of Central and Eastern Europe are likely to slow further as …
Overview – The end of the housing downturn has reduced the risk of a recession and we expect GDP growth in Australia to edge up from 1.7% this year to 2.0% in 2020. However, that’s still well below potential and we expect the unemployment rate to climb …
15th October 2019
China Overview – China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But with the boom in property construction on borrowed time and headwinds from higher food inflation and cooling global demand likely to intensify further, it is hard to see how a …
10th October 2019
Overview – Regional growth is likely to remain very weak, with slower growth in China likely to offset a modest recovery in the rest of the region. China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But with the boom in property construction coming …
Overview - We still think that the impact of October’s sales tax hike on consumption will be smaller than after previous tax hikes. But the outlook for external demand remains poor and firms have become less optimistic about the outlook for capital …
9th October 2019
Overview – India’s economy slowed sharply in the first half of the year but, with policy support being stepped up, growth should gradually recover. And despite the recent soft patch for the economy, we remain optimistic about India’s longer-term …
8th October 2019
Overview – After the deepest downturn since the Cultural Revolution in Q1, China’s economy will return to growth this quarter. But with labour market strains holding back domestic demand and external headwinds intensifying, output is still set to contract …
30th September 2019
Overview - Australia’s housing downturn will probably come to an end towards the end of the year. That means that the drag from falling housing wealth on consumer spending will subside. It also means that homebuilding will become more attractive again. …
10th July 2019
