Filtered by Region: G10 Use setting G10
Overview – 2023 will be the most difficult year for the housing market since 2008. Mortgage rates remain very high by the standards of recent years and can’t drop materially until the Bank of England shifts from raising interest rates to cutting them. …
26th January 2023
Click here to read the full report. We now expect a small fall in rents next year in a handful of metros as affordability constraints and falling employment take their toll on demand. At the same time, a wave of completions in some of the markets with the …
29th December 2022
Click here for full report: Overview – Consistent with our national office story, we expect a few years of insipid rent growth and returns for most US office markets. Expensive coastal metros will continue to see weak demand as high rates of sublease …
23rd December 2022
Click here to read the full report. Overview – We think the euro-zone is now at the start of a recession, driven by high inflation, tightening financial conditions and weak external demand, and anticipate two quarters of contraction followed by a gradual …
19th December 2022
Click here to read the full report Overview – The sharp rise in interest rates this year has prompted a price correction, which is now coming through in valuation-based indices. Combined with the mild recession we are forecasting for 2023, this will weigh …
Click here to read the full report. Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – We continue to expect the world to slip into recession in 2023 as the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates are felt. Our forecasts are below the consensus across …
Click here to read the full report. Overview – Property values in Scandinavia and Switzerland have taken a hit as yields jumped in recent quarters. With valuations still stretched, we are forecasting a further 50bps and 30bps of rises at the …
16th December 2022
Overview – Soaring interest rates and weak real income growth will result in a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity in both countries than most anticipate. With New Zealand’s central bank determined to push the economy into recession, we’re now …
12th December 2022
Overview – The economy is heading for a moderate recession, as higher interest rates weigh on domestic demand and exports contract amid the global downturn. Weaker demand, together with lower commodity prices and an easing of supply shortages, should …
8th December 2022
Overview – 2023 will be a tough year for the economy as the effects of the previous rises in inflation and previous hikes in interest rates (as well as a future rise from 3.00% now to a peak of 4.50% in early 2023) are felt. Our view that inflation and …
7th December 2022
Although we agree with the markets that the Bank of England will be patient and won’t pivot from raising interest rates to actually cutting interest rates until 2024, we think that fading inflation will force the Bank to cut rates quicker than investors …
30th November 2022
Overview – The surge in interest rates in recent months has quickly been reflected in property yields, and as a result we have brought forward some of our forecasted rise in yields from 2023 into 2022. But with gilts yields set to fall back next year we …
28th November 2022
Overview – We expect mortgage rates will hold close to 7% over the remainder of the year, leaving affordability at its worst since 1985. That will lead to another sharp fall in activity. As the economy dips into a mild recession in 2023, sales and …
8th November 2022
While the dollar has now reached a 20-year high and looks increasingly overvalued on a long-term basis, we think it will rise further in the near term as the global economy falls into recession and “safe-haven” demand increases further. Even if the FOMC …
2nd November 2022
Overview – The jump in market interest rates following the ill-advised “mini” budget has forced quoted mortgage rates up to over 5%, a level not seen since 2009. That will turn the slowdown in demand already evident in the survey data into a collapse, as …
31st October 2022
Prospects for economic activity have deteriorated further in recent months as headwinds to growth have become stronger. Inflation looks set to remain high for longer, eroding households’ real incomes; monetary policy is being tightened further and …
25th October 2022
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – Persistently high inflation and more aggressive monetary policy tightening now seem set to cause a global recession. While we had previously anticipated contractions in several economies, the gloom has spread …
Overview – The drag on the economy from CPI inflation being stuck at 10% for a year and interest rates rising to 5.00% will be enough to trigger a recession that involves real GDP declining by around 2.0% from its peak to its trough. What’s more, …
20th October 2022
Overview – The overriding story this quarter is that although weak demand and steady inventory growth in the next couple of years will push up vacancy in many metros, we still see asking rents growing solidly as firms compete up rents on new, high …
23rd September 2022
We expect a sharp slowdown in apartment rental growth across the board, as job growth slows, affordability constraints bite and an influx of supply pushes up vacancy. But some markets will perform better than others. Rent prospects are strongest in the …
16th September 2022
Overview – Since the release of our previous Apartment Metro Outlook three months ago the interest rate environment has become more negative for real estate, and we now expect yields to rise in many metros this year and to see further increases in 2023. …
12th July 2022
Overview – In light of the deterioration in the economic environment, our office metro forecasts have been downgraded across the board. Those downgrades are driven by a substantial shift in our yield view, which mean that capital values in all 17 metros …
1st July 2022
Overview – While the news of vaccines provides a fillip to our economic outlook, it does not have a major bearing on our occupier market forecasts. After all, we expect that structural change, rather than cyclical growth, will be the major driver of …
11th December 2020
