Unemployment rate to rise before long The unemployment rate stayed unchanged in December, but labour market conditions are beginning to betray signs of loosening. We are expecting unemployment to rise to 2.8% by mid-year due to a recession. The labour …
30th January 2023
Recession not off the table yet The fall in German GDP in Q4 suggests that the energy crisis started to dent activity at the end of last year. This pours cold water on the recent optimism about the prospects for the euro-zone and suggests that a technical …
Slump in spending suggests recession could have already started The monthly income and spending figures reveal that, despite the apparent resilience of fourth-quarter GDP growth, the economy was on the precipice of a recession, and may already have fallen …
27th January 2023
January print likely the peak for inflation Tokyo inflation rose to 4.4% in January as fresh food and services inflation rose, signalling a similar jump at the national level. But due to the government’s energy subsidies we expect it to fall below the …
26th January 2023
Underlying pace of growth already much weaker The 2.9% annualised rise in fourth-quarter GDP was a little stronger than we had expected, but the mix of growth was discouraging, and the monthly data suggest the economy lost momentum as the fourth quarter …
Growth set to weaken in 2023 Growth slowed in Q4, and we expect the economy to weaken further over the coming quarters against a backdrop of weak global demand, high interest rates and elevated inflation. According to the advanced estimate published …
Difficult year ahead Economic output fell in the final quarter of 2022, and we think the economy will continue to struggle over the coming year as high interest rates and weak overseas demand weigh on prospects. Our 2023 growth forecasts are well below …
25th January 2023
Bank hints that smaller 25 bp hike likely to be the last The Bank of Canada accompanied its smaller 25 bp hike with new guidance that it intends to hold the policy rate at the current 4.5% while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate …
Recession might be avoided, but outlook still poor The renewed increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in January confirms that the recovery in German business sentiment that started at the end of 2022 has continued this year. But the fall in its …
More tightening still to come The Bank of Thailand hiked interest rates today by a further 25bps (to 1.50%), and hinted that the tightening cycle still has further to run. The decision was correctly predicted by 21 out of the 23 economists polled by …
Rates set to stay on hold in 2023 Sri Lanka’s central bank (CBSL) kept interest rates unchanged today and we expect it to leave rates on hold for the rest of the year as it aims to strike a fine balance between supporting a struggling economy and clamping …
Interest rate cuts still some way off Hungary’s central bank (MNB) left its base rate on hold today, at 13.00%, and we don’t think that it will cut its main policy interest rates until late-2023. In the meantime, we expect that the MNB will continue to …
24th January 2023
Recession on the cards in 2023 The renewed fall in the flash UK Composite PMI in January suggests that some of the resilience in economic activity towards the back end of 2022 started to peter out in early 2023. While still very high, the price indices …
Further improvement in activity amid high prices pressures The increase in the flash euro-zone Composite PMI for January was a little better than expected and left it consistent with the economy roughly stagnating. With employment intentions and price …
Borrowing overshoot further limits chances of big Budget giveaways December’s public finances figures provided more evidence that the government’s fiscal position is deteriorating fast. And high government spending in the early months of 2022/23 and the …
Further tightening on the cards Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) raised its policy rate today by a further 100bps (to 17.0%), and we expect more tightening over the coming months amid concerns about high inflation and the worsening external position. …
23rd January 2023
Disappointing end to a difficult year The surprise 1.0 % m/m fall in retail sales volumes (consensus +0.5%) meant that sales volumes fell by 1.3% q/q over Q4 as a whole and ended the year a disappointing 5.4% below their level at the start of the year. …
20th January 2023
Government measures to lower inflation from January Inflation hit 4% in December but due to the government’s energy subsidies we expect it to fall to around 3.0% in January, and further below the Bank of Japan’s 2.0% target by mid-year. The increase in …
19th January 2023
CBRT continues with policy pause Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) left its main policy rate unchanged at 9.00% as expected today and our central view is that rates will remain on hold in the coming months. But with inflation now falling sharply and the …
Norges Bank tightening nearly over The Norges Bank eased off the brakes today by leaving policy on hold, but signalled that it will raise its policy rate at the next meeting in March. We suspect that will be the final hike in this tightening cycle, and …
Bank Indonesia tightening cycle at an end Bank Indonesia (BI) today raised interest rates by a further 25bps (to 5.75%) but also appeared to signal there would be no further rate increases this year. We are changing our forecast in response, and now …
Rates on hold, end of the tightening cycle Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) unexpectedly left its main policy rate unchanged today (at 2.75%), but appeared to leave open the possibility of further rate hikes later in the year. However, with growth set to …
Unemployment rate to rise in earnest before long The labour market struggled in December and it won’t be long before unemployment starts to rise in earnest. The 14,600 drop in employment in December was well below the analyst consensus of +22,500. And …
Exports heading into 2023 on the backfoot While the trade deficit narrowed further in December, most of that reflects falling import prices. Export volumes likely fell slightly and with the global downturn weighing on external demand, export growth will …
Manufacturing falls into recession, with output at a 15-month low Echoing the recent slump in the survey-based indicators, industrial production declined by a worse-than-expected 0.7% in December, with November’s decline revised up to 0.6% m/m, from 0.2%. …
18th January 2023
Consumers starting to buckle under higher rates The 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales in December, which follows a downwardly-revised 1.0% fall in November, adds to the evidence from the surveys that the economy was rapidly losing momentum towards the end of …
Economy set to remain weak Taiwan’s economy unexpectedly contracted in Q4, driven by a sharp fall in exports. We expect the economy to remain weak over the coming quarters as exports struggle amid a global recession and higher interest rates weigh on …
Inflation is falling, but services inflation still too strong for comfort The small fall in CPI inflation from 10.7% in November to 10.5% in December (consensus forecast 10.5%) and unchanged core rate 6.3% (consensus 6.2%) suggests it is too early for the …
New Governor will ditch Yield Curve Control in April The Bank of Japan kept policy settings unchanged today, but the increase in its medium-term inflation forecasts supports our view that Yield Curve Control will be abandoned once a new Governor takes …
Further signs of investment slowdown Weakness in the manufacturing sector led to “core” machinery orders falling to their lowest level since February 2022, and points to a slowdown in investment last quarter. “Core” orders crashed by 8.3% m/m in November …
Some encouraging signs despite elevated core inflation Unfavourable base effects mean that the small falls in CPI-trim and CPI-median inflation in December are better than they look. And with prices falling on the month for the first time since July 2020, …
17th January 2023
Strong wage growth adds pressure on the Bank of England to raise rates Consistent with the economy proving to be more resilient than expected, November’s labour market data show that conditions remain tight and wage growth stayed strong. This will only …
A smaller-than-expected hit from reopening China’s statistics bureau claims that GDP was unchanged q/q in Q4. That is implausible, even accounting for December data showing surprising economic resilience in the face of the reopening wave of infections. …
Sentiment rebounding from historically weak level The further rise in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to 64.6 in January, from 59.7, illustrates that consumers have taken some encouragement from the fall in energy prices. Nevertheless, …
13th January 2023
Q4 contraction probably avoided Annual GDP data for Germany suggest that the economy avoided a contraction in Q4 and that the euro-zone as a whole will probably prove more resilient to the energy crisis than we initially feared. But activity clearly …
GDP resilient, but still set for contraction in Q1 The small 0.1% m/m gain in real GDP in November (consensus -0.2% m/m, CE -0.3% m/m) suggests the economy was not as weak in Q4 as we had previously thought. But even if the economy does a bit better than …
Reopening to boost imports but exports will still struggle China’s exports contracted year-on-year in December by the most since the Wuhan lockdown in early 2020. Imports held up slightly better but are still depressed. Inbound shipments should start to …
Final rate hike of the cycle The Bank of Korea today raised interest rates by a further 25bps (to 3.50%), but with price pressures easing and economic growth slowing sharply, we think this will be the last hike of the cycle. Today’s decision came as …
Slump in gasoline prices drives decline in headline CPI Consumer prices declined by 0.1% m/m in December, helped by a 9.4% m/m drop back in gasoline prices and a more modest 0.3% m/m increase in food prices. The pace of monthly gains in food away from …
12th January 2023
Some very modest reopening effects Consumer price inflation ticked up in December, while producer price deflation eased. There are some early signs that the transition toward living with COVID is starting to put upward pressure on prices. But the uptick …
Net trade to boost GDP growth in Q4 The trade balance widened to a five month high in November even though import prices probably outpaced export prices last quarter, which suggests that net trade provided a sizeable boost to Q4 GDP growth. The trade …
Stubbornly high inflation will prompt further RBA tightening The renewed rise in inflation in November coupled with strong retail sales data will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to press ahead with another 25bp rate hike at its February meeting. …
11th January 2023
NBR’s slows tightening again, likely the end of the cycle The 25bp interest rate hike by Romania’s central bank today, to 7.00%, probably brings the hiking cycle to an end. Today’s decision was expected by all analysts, including ourselves. The central …
10th January 2023
Getting worse in December but soon likely to be getting better The downturn in credit growth extended in December amid the economic disruption from reopening. But the worst of disruption may have already passed. The shift toward living with COVID and …
This report has been updated with additional table and chart of key data. Inflation surges higher on back of weaker pound Egypt’s CPI inflation rate jumped from 18.7% y/y in November to 21.3% y/y in December, its fastest pace since the end of 2017. (See …
Outlook improved, but headwinds remain The rise in German industrial output in November suggests that industrial output has held up better than we anticipated in the fourth quarter in part because of an increase in production in energy-intensive …
9th January 2023
Sharp decline illustrates that recession still more likely than soft landing The slump in the ISM services index to a 19-month low of 49.6 in December, from 56.5, is another signal from the surveys that despite the resilience of employment growth, …
6th January 2023
Surge in employment locks in another interest rate hike The surge in employment in December and renewed fall in the unemployment rate suggests that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again later this month, although the fall in wage growth means …
Wage growth slowing despite employment resilience The solid 223,000 gain in non-farm payrolls and drop-back in unemployment to a 50-year low in December will, at face value, do little to ease the Fed’s concerns about resilient core services inflation. …
New year cheer but ECB will stick to hawkish script The fall in inflation and improvement in economic sentiment in December suggest that the euro-zone’s case of stagflation is not as acute as feared a few months ago. Nonetheless, a technical recession is …
